Danny McCloskey
We are just hours away from the start of the Senators first round series against Hurricanes! So, how can the Sens upset the best team in the Eastern Conference? Let’s dive into the details with five keys to victory for the Ottawa Senators.
READ MORE: Senators-Hurricanes Playoff Preview
1. Use Last Year’s Experience to Their Advantage
It’s often thought that you have to learn how lose before you can learn how to win. Well, that’s what the Senators did last year. They fell behind 3-0 in their series against the Maple Leafs. It was not a lack of effort that cost them. Instead, it felt like they were trying to do too much while also coming up lame in the game’s biggest moments.
Game one was ugly, with the Leafs scoring three times on six power play opportunities. The start of game two wasn’t any better, as the Leafs went up 2-0 after the first period. Finally, the Senators started to figure out playoff hockey. Unfortunately, they lost both games two and three in overtime, putting them in a hole that was too deep to climb out of. A year later, it would be surprising to see the Senators look so out of sorts to start the series. Not only do they have last year’s playoff experience, but a lot of their best players are coming off an Olympic experience as well.
2. Linus Ullmark From the End of the Season, not the Start
There were two distinctly different versions of Linus Ullmark this season. Have a look:
- First 28 starts: 2.95 GAA, .881 SV%, 43% of his starts allowing two goals or less
- Last 21 starts: 2.41 GAA, .904 SV%, 62% of his starts allowed two goals or less
Since Ullmark’s return from his leave of absence, he was second in the league with 14 wins. He is, on paper, the best goalie option for either team. The Hurricanes have their own goaltending issues, with Brandon Bussi struggling down the stretch. Ullmark does not need to be at his Vezina level (although that would be nice). He just can’t be the goalie that was costing the Senators wins in the first half of the season.
3. Penalty Kill From the End of the Season, not the Start
There were two distinctly different versions of the Senators penalty kill this season. Have a look:
- First 50 games: 71.7%, 43 power play goals against, 3 shorthanded goals
- Last 32 games: 83.1%, 14 power play goals against, 5 shorthanded goals
On January 24th, the Senators put Mike Yeo in charge of their penalty kill. That was when this shift happened, where the Senators went from the second worst penalty kill in the league to the fifth best. It is obvious what changed- the Senators goaltending improved, but even more drastic was how aggressive the Senators played while shorthanded. This had led to not only a better kill percentage, but way more offensive chances the other way.
This will be a huge battle in this series that both teams feel they should win. The Hurricanes have the league’s fourth ranked power play, at 24.9%. The Senators penalty kill cost them in last year’s playoffs, giving up six goals on 17 power plays.
4. Sanderson, Stützle & Tkachuk as the Best Players in the Series
When it comes to any playoff series, it’s fairly obvious that in order to win, a team needs its star players to play like star players. The Hurricanes have incredible depth and some great players. They don’t have any true superstars, though. In last year’s Conference Finals, Bennett, Barkov and Tkachuk combined for 21 points for the Panthers, while Jarvis, Aho and Svechnikov scored just 14 points.
Last year against the Maple Leafs, Sanderson, Stützle and Tkachuk all played very well. On the other side, though, Nylander, Matthews and Marner combined for 24 points. If the Sens can walk away from this series feeling like there was no doubt that their stars were the best players in the series, they will likely walk away victorious.
5. Pinto as the Best Defensive Forward in the Series
No team suppresses shots as well as the Hurricanes. Jaccob Slavin is regarded as the best defensive defenseman in hockey. In each of the last two years of Selke voting for top defensive forward, Jordan Staal, Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho have received votes. That included Jordan Staal finishing second two years ago.
It’s obvious that the Hurricanes will look to slow down Tim Stützle first and foremost. On the other side, the Senators will have to slow down a team that scored 291 goals this season, the second most in the NHL. If this series ends with people praising Jordan Staal for his great defensive play, that does not bode well for the Senators.
However, if it is Shane Pinto who emerges as the best defensive forward in the series, that would be a huge advantage for the Sens. In last year’s playoffs, he was tasked with playing shift after shift against the Matthews-Marner-Knies line. He spent all season taking on the opposition’s best players. A certain writer thinks Pinto deserves Selke votes for his work this season. Now he needs to continue that play in the playoffs.
Final Thoughts
The Senators fanbase should prepare for a grind-it-out type of series. Shots are hard to come by against the Hurricanes, as are wins, especially in the first round of the playoffs. The Hurricanes are deep, well-coached and experienced. In order for the Senators to complete the upset, they’ll need to win most of the key points discussed above. Here’s one last stat worth mentioning before game one begins this afternoon: The Senators have never won a series after going down two games to none, losing all ten times when this has happened. Translation? The Sens need to steal a game in Carolina.
