Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning has been surrounded by hype since entering college as the No. 1 recruit in the country. Now billed as the projected No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, league executives seem to be pumping the brakes on the hype.
Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated wrote this week about the buzz surrounding Manning just a year out from him potentially declaring for the 2026 NFL Draft. However, multiple league executives made it clear it’s way too early in Manning’s collegiate career to start building him up as a no-doubt top pick.
“I get that everyone’s excited,. That run happened and people started talking—they’re almost surprised with that last name that he has that speed, and the ability to generate big plays with his legs, and he gets transformed into this elite prospect. The reality is we haven’t really seen him run the offense with any consistency yet. And that’s not his fault, he just hasn’t played.”
AFC college scouting director on Texas Longhorns QB Arch Manning
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- Arch Manning stats (ESPN): 939 passing yards, 9-2 TD-INT, 67.8% completion rate, 9.2 ypa in 2024
For as tantalizing as Manning’s physical tools and size are, evaluators are right to hold off on overreacting to a small sample size. In the past two seasons, Manning has attempted just 95 passes and a majority of those attempts (60) came against Mississippi State and Louisiana-Monroe last season.
“You just don’t know until they’re really playing,. Right now, the body of work is too small. We’ve seen big guys with talent, the tools, the arm, that don’t know how to process, and don’t have the accuracy to all levels of the field consistently enough. What we have on [Manning] isn’t nearly enough. You could guess, but that’s really all you’ll be doing—guessing.”
Second AFC college scouting director on Arch Manning
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NFL teams have become more wary of rolling the dice on inexperienced college quarterbacks, especially in the first round. Manning might have the pedigree as a former No. 1 overall recruit, but that doesn’t guarantee success at any level.
It’s also part of the reason why Manning’s family is believed to be planning for him to be the starter at Texas for at least two seasons. Breer even mentioned that he could stay in college for the next three years, not entering the league until the 2028 NFL Draft. So, while there is considerable buzz around Manning, it seems NFL teams want to see him perform over a full season first before getting too excited.
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