Matt Johnson
NFL free agency is this week with the legal tampering period underway and teams already agreeing to huge contracts with top players. This time of year brings a crazy amount of spending and while some of the deals will pay off, several will prove to be overpays before long.
Let’s dive into our list of the five NFL free agents who will be the most overpaid this week.
Kenneth Walker III, Running Back
Kenneth Walker III made himself an obscene amount of money by winning Super Bowl MVP and delivering a postseason run with 24 first downs, 417 scrimmage yards, 4 touchdowns, and a 5.6 yards-per-touch average in three games. The latest reports, most recently from Dan Duggan of The Athletic, suggest the top running back in NFL free agency could now land a multi-year deal worth up to $15 million per year. If that happens, he’ll be in the same company as Derrick Henry and ahead of Jonathan Taylor ($14 million AAV), Josh Jacobs ($12 million AAV), and James Cook ($11.5 million AAV).
The problem? Walker averaged just 1,018 scrimmage yards per season from 2023-24, missing seven total games during that span. He’s also averaged under 4 yards per carry in 50 percent of his career games played. Given his boom-bust nature as a runner and the fact that his workload needs to be managed to preserve his health, the cost to sign him will prove to be a massive overpay.
Related: Six Teams with Most Cap Space in NFL Free Agency, Potential Targets for Each
Devin Lloyd, Off-Ball Linebacker
One theme with our list of NFL free agents who are about to get overpaid is that they are hitting the market at the perfect time. Devin Lloyd earned second-team All-Pro honors in 2025 and made the Pro Bowl for the first time in his career, largely thanks to career highs in interceptions (five). However, turnovers tend to be a bit fluky at the linebacker position. We can highlight that by the fact that Lloyd had one interception across 31 games in his previous two seasons, and he had just one in his final 10 games this past season. It is also worth noting that he rated as an average linebacker in his first three seasons, with defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile’s scheme responsible for the breakout. If he isn’t returning to Jacksonville, Lloyd is probably going to be just a league-average starter with his new team paying him like a perennial Pro Bowl starter.
Related: 2026 NFL Free Agency Predictions for Top Quarterbacks
Rasheed Walker, Offensive Tackle
The top offensive tackle in NFL free agency always gets paid big bucks; we saw that last offseason with Dan Moore Jr. That deal also set a baseline this offseason for left tackle Rasheed Walker. He is good in pass protection, ranking 11th among tackles in ESPN’s pass-block win rate last season, but he has been flagged for 23 penalties in his career and he is poor as a run blocker. Walker is going to get at least $20 million per season and, realistically, he is going to be a “fine” starter at left tackle.
Related: Predicting Landing Spots for Top NFL Free Agent Wide Receivers
Alontae Taylor, Cornerback
Alontae Taylor is a former top-50 pick entering the prime years of his NFL career and coming off a very strong season. That is a recipe for some club that is desperate at cornerback, and sees a market that lacks a premium-tier player, to overspend on Taylor. Just keep in mind that he allowed a 111.0 passer rating across 103 targets in coverage during the 2024 season with the New Orleans Saints and has allowed 17 touchdowns when targeted over the last three years. Taylor will get paid like a CB1 and, if he does not have a strong pass rush in front of him, the deal could age badly.
Related: Winners, Losers from First Week of NFL Offseason Frenzy
Alec Pierce, Wide Receiver
Alec Pierce is one of the top NFL free agents in 2026 at a time when the market is thin on impact players at wide receiver. It also seems like at least a third of the league is in on Pierce, wanting to bring the best deep threat in the NFL into their offense. Reports entering the weekend suggested that the bidding war for Pierce’s services could push his average annual value into the range of $27 million to $30 million per season. That is in the same neighborhood as Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins and Terry McLaurin. Given the shaky history of how things turn out for teams that sign the top receiver in NFL free agency, Pierce’s next club might have some buyer’s remorse two years in. We really like the player, but the price to sign him is going to be absurd.
Related: Most Underrated NFL Free Agents 2026
