Matt Johnson
NFL free agency starts next week and the new NFL League year 2026 will also make a few blockbuster trades official. With so much going down in recent days between top starters being dealt to new teams and marquee players receiving the franchise tag, it’s worth breaking down some of the early action.
Following the first true week of the 2026 NFL offseason, we’re analyzing the winners and losers so far.
Winner: Baltimore Ravens HC Jesse Minter
Did the Baltimore Ravens pay a premium in the Maxx Crosby trade? Yes. It is also exactly the type of move the front office needed to make to support first-year head coach Jesse Minter. He is one of the best defensive play-callers in the NFL, but his scheme can only truly excel when it boasts an outstanding edge rusher who can let him drop seven players back. Last season, Baltimore ranked 28th in ESPN pass-rush win rate (30 percent) with the sixth-lowest pressure rate (19 percent) in the NFL. Crosby, when healthy, is one of the best three-down edge rushers in football. Minter now has his difference-maker at all three levels, with Crosby generating pressure, Roquan Smith playing the middle of the field and Kyle Hamilton doing everything else. This is the kind of move that Super Bowl contenders make.
Related: Grading NFL Coaching Hires 2026
Loser: 2026 NFL Draft RB Class Outside of Jeremiyah Love
Jeremiyah Love is not just the best running back in the 2026 NFL Draft class; he is viewed by most as a top-three player overall this year. What does the NFL think of his draft-eligible peers? Let the reported contract projections for Kenneth Walker ($13-plus million average annual value) and Travis Etienne ($10-plus million AAV), along with the multiple teams eyeing the likes of Rachaad White, Tyler Allgeier, Kenneth Gainwell, and Rico Dowdle, tell you everything you need to know. It does not matter who anyone views as the second-best running back prospect—whether it is Jonah Coleman, Jadarian Price or Emmett Johnson—clubs are not fond of this year’s pool outside of Love. We might only see three running backs picked in the first three rounds.
Related: Ranking Jeremiyah Love Landing Spots
Winner: Fernando Mendoza and the Las Vegas Raiders
Let’s skip the debate about the Las Vegas Raiders not taking quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick. Now, let us look into the developments this week that will help the rookie. First, the Baltimore Ravens have made moves that make re-signing Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum appear unlikely. Second, several competitors for Linderbaum—such as the Chicago Bears, who just acquired Garrett Bradbury, and the Los Angeles Chargers, who just signed Tyler Biadasz—have taken themselves out of the mix. The Raiders now have approximately $120 million in cap space, per OverTheCap.com, giving them the financial flexibility to aggressively pursue Linderbaum, potentially sign Rashid Shaheed, and do even more to fill out the supporting cast around Mendoza. Plus, it appears the club will also sign a veteran quarterback so Mendoza can be eased along if he does not win the starting job in training camp.
Related: NFL Free Agency Predictions for Top Running Backs
Loser: Joe Burrow
The week started with the Cincinnati Bengals opting not to use the franchise tag on Trey Hendrickson, allowing him to depart in free agency. What does that mean? The organization can either now only make moderate moves to improve the roster so it can receive a compensatory third-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft or it can spend more money and effectively let Hendrickson walk for nothing. This is, of course, assuming there are key players who want to play for Cincinnati long-term. Meanwhile, quarterback Joe Burrow must also now deal with the fact that he will play eight games per season against Maxx Crosby, Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt. That is not even including matchups next season against the Houston Texans defense. Burrow is either going to miss games in 2026 or take 50-plus sacks.
Winner: Alec Pierce
Back in January, it seemed like Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce would land a multi-year contract in the range of $20 to $25 million per season if he reached the open market. Once Indianapolis placed the transition tag on Daniel Jones and George Pickens got tagged by the Dallas Cowboys, Pierce became the top offensive weapon in NFL free agency. He is reportedly already on the radar for clubs like the Tennessee Titans, San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots and the Las Vegas Raiders. Because of all that interest and with this free-agent class being weaker than usual, we think Pierce could now reach a $30 million AAV. The best deep threat in the NFL is about to cash in, with his signing bonus almost certainly going to triple his career earnings ($8.66 million) from his first four seasons.
Related: Predicting Landing Spots for Top NFL Free Agent Wide Receivers
Loser: Daniel Jones
We are not here to suggest that quarterback Daniel Jones is suffering by any means with his current situation. After all, the “worst-case scenario” for him in 2026 is recovering from a torn Achilles while earning $37.833 million fully guaranteed. However, it feels like the 2026 NFL offseason did not unfold for Jones’ camp quite how they would have wanted. First, Indianapolis did not sign him to a multi-year deal, nor did they use the franchise tag on him that would have been worth $43.9 million. So he immediately lost out on money there. Second, while he is technically a free agent and free to sign an offer sheet with another team, there are other quarterbacks available and only a few teams willing to spend big.
We also suspect that the market will be a greater reflection on reality than NFL free agency rankings. Jones is a dual-threat quarterback recovering from an injury that has had a significant impact on quarterbacks in their first season back. He also already had durability issues earlier in his career. We suspect Jones will not have much of a market, effectively boxing him in to sign the one-year deal with Indianapolis.
Related: 2026 NFL Free Agency Predictions for Top Quarterbacks
Winner: Minnesota Vikings
Heading into the 2026 NFL offseason, the Minnesota Vikings found themselves in a concerning position. Salary-cap issues were going to force cap casualties at some key positions, resulting in this roster being weaker at several spots and having less depth than before. All the while, Minnesota needed to go out and find a viable quarterback who could challenge J.J. McCarthy for the starting job when it had very little money to offer. Then the Arizona Cardinals announced they would release Kyler Murray, putting themselves on the hook for a majority of his salary in 2026. We know Murray will probably speak to several teams, but signing with Minnesota feels inevitable. Assuming a deal gets done, the Vikings will have an above-average starting quarterback signed for the minimum. That is the dream for Kevin O’Connell and it may soon become reality.
