Matt Johnson
With the Las Vegas Raiders poised to select Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick and no other viable starters available in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft, veterans are poised to cash in this offseason. The release of Kyler Murray only added to the intrigue in 2026 NFL free agency, which will have another layer once Tua Tagovailoa hits the open market.
Let’s dive into our NFL free agency predictions for where each of the top quarterbacks lands.
Malik Willis: Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals would have loved if Oregon quarterback Dante Moore declared for the 2026 NFL Draft. Instead, they will have to go another route to find their starting quarterback. Malik Willis does have some ties to the Miami Dolphins (head coach Jeff Hafley and general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan), so heading to Florida is a viable option. However, we think his time with head coach Matt LaFleur will lead him out west with the hopes of recreating that success as the starting quarterback for Mike LaFleur. In Arizona, Willis steps into a situation where he will already have an All-Pro tight end in Trey McBride and an excellent receiver tandem with Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. Plus, the Cardinals could use their top pick on a right tackle and invest more capital and cap space at running back. The stakes are low in Arizona next year, and the organization provides him with the coaching staff and offensive weapons to potentially excel.
Aaron Rodgers: Pittsburgh Steelers
In his final seven regular-season games in 2025, Aaron Rodgers posted a 5-2 record with a 64.3 percent completion rate, 6-0 TD-INT ratio and a 91.9 passer rating with the Pittsburgh Steelers. He demonstrated to himself that he can still play at a starting-caliber level, and Pittsburgh isn’t exactly well-positioned to find an upgrade over Rodgers. He’ll spend a few months contemplating retirement and then he will report back to the team ahead of the summer to reunite with Mike McCarthy and be the Steelers’ starting quarterback in 2026.
Related: Why the Steelers Made a Mistake Hiring Mike McCarthy
Kirk Cousins: New York Jets
We ultimately believe that Tua Tagovailoa could wind up being the New York Jets starting quarterback in 2026, but he isn’t officially available yet. With that option off the table, Kirk Cousins becomes the most viable short-term option for the Jets. He put up a respectable line in his last seven starts in 2025 — 87.5 passer rating, 10-5 TD-INT ratio and 6.8 yards per attempt — so this would be an upgrade for the Jets. He will be able to get the football out accurately to Garrett Wilson, and he won’t get in the way if a young quarterback taken on Day 2 proves he’s ready to step in late in the year.
Marcus Mariota: Atlanta Falcons
Because the Atlanta Falcons are leaving the door open to Michael Penix Jr. being their starting quarterback in 2026, options will be more limited in NFL free agency. We do, however, think this spot could prove very appealing to veteran Marcus Mariota. Over the last two seasons, he has posted a 93.4 passer rating with a 63.8 percent completion rate, a 14-7 TD-INT line and averaged 7.6 yards per attempt. Mariota is also a viable rushing threat even in his early 30s, so Atlanta could work that in to pair nicely with Bijan Robinson. Of the few teams who might be able to offer Mariota a chance at starting, Atlanta is the best fit.
Kyler Murray: Minnesota Vikings
This feels inevitable. The only way the Minnesota Vikings had a shot at landing Kyler Murray was if no team traded for the Pro Bowl quarterback and the Arizona Cardinals bit the financial bullet by releasing him. Kevin O’Connell’s dream came to fruition. Murray has been an above-average starter as recently as this past season, and he has shown flashes of MVP-caliber play a few seasons prior. This season is his chance at redemption, and there is no better spot to do that than running O’Connell’s offense and targeting the likes of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. Murray will sign for the minimum with the Vikings, and this team will instantly be the buzz of the NFL for the rest of the offseason.
