The Pittsburgh Steelers conducted a coaching search this offseason for the first time since the 2007 offseason, needing to find a replacement for Mike Tomlin. By reportedly hiring Mike McCarthy, the organization has set itself up for another coaching search before long.
On Saturday afternoon, Tom Pelissero of NFL Network first reported the news that McCarthy and the Steelers were working toward a deal to make him just the fourth head coach in franchise history since 1969. It’ll be a homecoming for McCarthy, who grew up in Pittsburgh.
McCarthy, who served on the Pittsburgh Panthers coaching staff as an assistant for four years (1989–1992), is not a bad hire for certain franchises. The former Super Bowl champion head coach boasts a career .604 winning percentage in the regular season with 174 career victories in the NFL. However, this hiring raises significant questions about the thought process of the Steelers.
The Aaron Rodgers Factor
Importantly, per Pelissero, the hiring of McCarthy as the next Steelers head coach does not mean Aaron Rodgers will return in 2026. However, the future Hall of Fame quarterback did leave the door open to playing another season, and it has been widely reported that he still has a very good relationship with McCarthy.
If Rodgers returns, the organization will sell it as a reunion between a head coach and all-time great quarterback who hoisted the Lombardi Trophy together against Pittsburgh. It might also be pointed out that Rodgers was a two-time MVP with McCarthy as his head coach and the duo posted a 125-77-2 record together (.618 winning percentage) with a 10-8 mark in the postseason.
Related: Why Aaron Rodgers May Return to the Pittsburgh Steelers
That would be an example of the Steelers franchise cherry-picking to create a narrative from information that is more than a decade old. Let’s remember the last time McCarthy coached the Green Bay Packers with Rodgers as his quarterback, the team went 11-16-1 (.407) from 2017–18 with Rodgers completing just 62.8 percent of his passes with a 98.6 QB rating and an 8-10-1 record. That pales in comparison to his production from 2009–2016 (84-35 record, 65.4% completion rate, 106.0 QB rating) and his numbers with Matt LaFleur as head coach (47-18 record, 66.5% completion, 104.7 QB rating).
Let us also keep in mind how Rodgers performed as a 41-year-old starting quarterback this past season. He ranked 23rd in ESPN QBR (44.5), just ahead of Jacoby Brissett (41.5) and Joe Flacco (42.7), and ranked 22nd in Adjusted EPA per Play (0.077) and 28th in Success Rate (43.8%) among qualified quarterbacks.
Rodgers will be 42 years old next season, and Pittsburgh would be teaming him up with a head coach whose offensive system fell behind modern defenses nearly a decade ago, forcing him out in Green Bay. To think it would work with a far lesser version of Rodgers seems ludicrous.
Steelers Settling for Mediocrity and a Bleak Future
Hiring McCarthy only works if an entire franchise needs to be rebuilt from the ground up. To his credit, McCarthy reportedly played a role in helping modernize the Cowboys front office and use of advanced data. However, what made his offenses work was in large part outstanding play from Dak Prescott in his prime. Dallas had three 12-5 seasons with McCarthy, but it went 1-3 in the NFL playoffs, with the lone victory coming against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that made it into the playoffs with an 8-9 record and went 3-5 after its Week 11 bye.
Where is the upside for Pittsburgh? McCarthy has just one more playoff win than Tomlin since 2017. The difference between the two is that Tomlin never had a losing season and his teams were quarterbacked by a broken-down Ben Roethlisberger, Kenny Pickett, Duck Hodges, Mason Rudolph and Russell Wilson. McCarthy has always had Prescott or Rodgers, two of the best NFL quarterbacks in their prime years.
Even if Rodgers returns, the best-case scenario under McCarthy in 2026 is likely a 10-7 record and the Steelers have an aging roster to go with a potential 42-year-old starting quarterback. Even in the likeliest ideal scenario, this team will not be good enough to win a playoff game.
So, Pittsburgh would be right back here next offseason with Rodgers certainly retiring, a rightfully disgruntled fan base and a 62-year-old head coach who is not as beloved by the players and fans as Tomlin was. Oh, the Steelers also do not have any long-term plans at quarterback.
The Steelers had a chance this offseason to hit the reset button, taking a chance on a young up-and-coming coach and letting him learn the ropes as they laid the foundation for the next era of this franchise. Instead, it appears the organization wants to keep treading water and running the same things back that have not worked out for other franchises. A once storied franchise seems aimlessly lost right now with a future that gets increasingly bleaker by the year.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. The Steelers are trying the same things, and the results are predictable to everyone outside of the building.
