Most expected the 2024 NFL free agent market to be absolutely robust for those set to cash in on new deals. After all, the NFL salary cap had increased from $224.8 million last year to a whopping $255.4 million this year.
With just days to go before the start of the legal tampering period, that might not be the case at three key positions.
According to Dianna Russini of The Athletic, general managers around the league expect the market to be “depressed” at running back, linebacker and safety.
The note about running backs can’t be considered too much of a surprise. We’ve seen a major devaluation at this position since the pass-first mantra of the league took hold. Many teams are also relying on more of a committee approach in the backfield.
This was the case during last year’s NFL free agent cycle. The likes of Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard and Josh Jacobs all had the franchise tag placed on them. None of those star backs agreed to long-term deals. All of them are set to hit free agency after their respective teams opted against placing the tag on them this time around.
The devaluation of linebackers and safeties is a completely different story. In particular, the safety position in today’s pass-first league would typically take on more significance. A total of $100 million in safety salary has been eliminated over the past couple weeks simply via player releases. It’s an insane number to look at.
Related: Top NFL free agents of 2024
Depressed NFL free agent market at safety will benefit teams
A total of 10 Pro Bowl safeties are set to hit NFL free agency. TEN. Of those, six of them were released by their teams ahead of the start of the new league year.
- Justin Simmons, Denver Broncos
- Jordan Poyer, Buffalo Bills
- Quandre Diggs, Seattle Seahawks
- Eddie Jackson, Chicago Bears
- Kevin Byard, Philadelphia Eagles
- Jamal Adams, Seattle Seahawks
Four-time All-Pro Justin Simmons boasted the highest 2023 cap hit among this group at $18.15 million. Jackson ($17.09 million), Diggs ($11.94 million) and Adams ($11.50 million) were all among the top-seven in cap hits among safeties (per Spotrac).
Despite the increase in the NFL salary cap, this tells us a story of teams that simply are not valuing safeties at a high clip. Sure, Adams’ release from the Seahawks was more injury-related. But Simmons, Diggs, Jackson and Poyer hitting the open market were all due to the finances of the modern NFL.
Adding to this is the fact that the New York Giants opted against placing the franchise tag on star safety Xavier McKinney. The impending free agent even had a live reaction of his own once news of Simmons’ release became public record on Thursday.
McKinney might be in for a rude awakening in talking to other teams, potentially leading to a return to the Giants. Remember, the franchise tag value for safeties in 2024 was set at $17.2 million. Not a single player in a saturated market at this position is going to get anywhere near that on a per-year basis in free agency. It’s that simple.
Related: 2024 NFL free agent tracker
Devin White, Patrick Queen to be impacted by linebacker market
These two Pro Bowlers are going to be among the NFL free agents most impacted by the “depressed” market at these three positions. The highest-paid linebacker in the league right now is Roquan Smith at $20 million per season. Fred Warner comes in second with an AAV of $19.05 million. These are different in the grand scheme of things given their overall importance.
Of the 20 highest-paid linebackers in the league last season, seven were set to hit free agency immediately after the 2023 campaign. Another two (Jerome Baker and Eric Kendricks) have already been released by their former teams. That’s nine of the top-20 paid linebackers from a season ago currently without a contract.
This doesn’t even take into account the New York Jets likely releasing C.J. Mosley before ahead of the new league year. Teams with a major need at linebacker are going to be met with an extremely friendly free agent market.
Related: 2024 NFL salary cap tracker by position
Saquon Barkley and free agent running back are in for a rude awakening
This is not as surprising. As noted at the top, Barkley joined the likes of Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard in being franchised a season ago. The three ended up earning north of $10 million last season on average.
Of that group, only Barkley is in line for a pay day nearing the $10 million range in NFL free agency. Only nine running backs were averaging as much as $10 million per season leading up to the offseason. Three of those were the players mentioned above.
No. 4 on the list of the highest-paid running backs, Derrick Henry is set to hit free agency and will leave the Tennessee Titans. Nick Chubb of the Cleveland Browns comes in at five. Rumors persist that they might simply opt to release him. Of the 12 highest-paid running backs, six are set to hit the open market with another one or two being potential salary cap casualties.
This has been the name of the game for the running back position. It’s going to lead to some major disappointment for the top backs hitting NFL free agency next week. It will also lead to some major bargains for teams attempting to find an upgrde at this position.