MLB insider predicts New York Yankees lose Juan Soto to rival team in free agency for specific and worrisome reason

A notable New York MLB insider predicts that the New York Yankees will lose a Juan Soto bidding war due to a very real strategy to cut payroll costs in the coming years.

The Yankees are just days away from kicking off their World Series matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers. After a long season that saw ups and downs, the team is just four wins away from bringing the franchise a record 28th MLB title.

However, once the season comes to a close it won’t be long before they will have to engage in a serious battle to hold on to, arguably, their top player. All-Star Juan Soto is expected to be at the center of a huge free-agent bidding war this winter. While the New York Yankees are favorites to retain his services, the team will have serious competition from many other clubs. Including in-city rivals the New York Mets and their billionaire owner.

Earlier this week, New York Post MLB insider Joel Sherman took a look at what the Mets must do to get to the World Series next season. And why throwing absurd sums of money at Soto would be a smart plan this winter. Since the team from Queens is backed by the wealthiest owner in the game, Sherman has a great deal of confidence they can win a bidding war against the Yankees.

He also explained why planned financial decisions the Yankees want to introduce could be the main reason they won’t re-sign the player projected to get a $600 million contract in free agency this offseason.

Juan Soto stats (2024 playoffs): .368 AVG, .478 OBP, .895 SLG, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 5 R

MLB insider predicts New York Yankees will lose Juan Soto bidding war to New York Mets

“Yankees want to keep [Soto]. Heck, every team should want him and many will bid on him,” Sherman wrote. “But I believe Hal Steinbrenner is serious about trying to draw the Yankees down from a $300 million-plus payroll, and so he will probably say ‘Uncle’ in a mano-a-mano bidding war with Uncle Stevie. But will Cohen go all-out? He should.”

Owner Hal Steinbrenner’s plans to reduce payroll created a lot of headlines during the 2024 season. Especially since the Yankees have traditionally always been one of the biggest spenders in baseball.

Juan Soto contract (Projection): 12 years, $600 million

There are serious penalties for teams that exceed the highest tax threshold. Being $60 million above the $241 million threshold could lead to a 60% surcharge on each dollar above the tax line. Clubs that are above the threshold by $40 million can also have their first-round picks moved back 10 spots. Plus, multiple years above the tax line leads to increased tax rates in the following seasons.

From a business perspective, it makes sense to be well below a payroll of $300 million. However, it could also be a terrible business decision to lose Soto to the Mets this winter.