With the 2026 NBA Draft in the books, the attention of teams and fans now turns toward NBA free agency. This isn’t a particularly loaded class, outside of LeBron James and Jalen Duren, but there are some impact players and key contributors among the top NBA free agents this summer.
Let’s dive into our NBA free agency predictions for where the top players will land this offseason. Picks are made by Matt Johnson and Jason Burgos.
LeBron James
Matt – Golden State Warriors – The Warriors have backed themselves into a corner, with few long-term plans after the Stephen Curry era as the front office and ownership put all of their proverbial eggs into the basket for contention. This summer is the franchise’s best chance and perhaps its last to add an impact player who could potentially improve Golden State’s title hopes. LeBron James has seemed to be open to playing with Curry in the past, and playing for the Warriors could allow for his family to spend the majority of their time at home in Los Angeles. This just feels like a situation where the timing and opportunity are right for both sides, culminating in James taking a one-year deal to play for the Warriors.
Jason – Miami Heat – While James leaving the Lakers has seemed unlikely for months, that possibility became a reality on Tuesday. The Warriors and Cavaliers will be the favorites to land his services in free agency. But will he prefer playing with a greybeard super-team or a second return to Cleveland? Look for the Heat to be a dark horse contender to get James. He has trust in Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra, and the addition of Giannis Antetokounmpo will make them far more appealing than they were a month ago.
Related: 10 NBA Stars Who Could Be Moved This Summer
Jalen Duren
Matt – Sacramento Kings – Perhaps this is buying too much into the NBA rumors. Jalen Duren’s camp could be using Sacramento as leverage to entice the Detroit Pistons to significantly increase their contract offer. However, this is a bet on the mutual interest between Duren and the Kings to be genuine. Sacramento seems to have a franchise-caliber point guard in Darius Acuff Jr., who has drawn NBA comparisons to a future Hall of Famer. King’s general manager Scott Perry can build the team around Acuff (20 in November) and Duren (23 in November), with their games complementing one another. Plus, unlike other suitors, Sacramento has an All-Star center in Domantas Sabonis whom it can flip to Detroit in a sign-and-trade.
Jason – Detroit Pistons – A couple of months ago, Duren signing a new long-term deal with the Pistons after a career year was a lock. However, his shocking regression in the playoffs completely changed the narrative on him internally and has opened the door to playing elsewhere next season. However, the 13th pick in the 2022 NBA Draft is still a restricted free agent. It feels more likely that when push comes to shove, the Pistons will match any offer and overpay to hold on to their homegrown star.
Related: Jalen Duren Eyeing Deal with Western Conference Team
Walker Kessler
Matt – Los Angeles Lakers – It’s extraordinarily rare for the top restricted free agents to land with new teams, so this is going a bit bold here with Jalen Duren and Walker Kessler both finding new homes. However, reports have indicated there’s a massive gulf in contract talks between Kessler’s agent and the Utah Jazz. Furthermore, the team just re-signed Jusuf Nurkic to a two-year deal, and there’s still Kyle Filipowski. Meanwhile, the Lakers are in a bit of a dire spot with Luka Doncic. Failing to surround him with complementary skill players who can elevate Los Angeles in the next two to three years puts the team at risk of Doncic walking in NBA free agency when his contract expires. It’s time for Los Angeles to be aggressive, and with new ownership running the show, we think a splash is made with a sign-and-trade for Kessler.
Jason – Charlotte Hornets – The Hornets stunned many around the NBA when they traded LaMelo Ball to the Minnesota Timberwolves last week. While the deal was a head-scratcher to many, Charlotte firmly believes in the combo of Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel, and the trade got a lot of money off their books. It does not feel like they are done yet, and bolstering their frontcourt with one of the top centers on the market in Kessler could be the next move for the Hornets.
Tobias Harris
Matt – Toronto Raptors – If the Raptors pull off a Kawhi Leonard trade, then that would obviously take them out of the mix for Tobias Harris. For now, we’re projecting the Eastern Conference contender to land him in NBA free agency. While Harris averaged just 13.3 points and 5.1 rebounds per game this past season, he shot nearly 37 percent from the perimeter and came up big in the playoffs (18.1 PPG and 7.2 RPG). The trouble is that there aren’t many teams with the cap space to sign him who can also offer him a chance to make a deep playoff run. Harris’ playoff experience and the versatile skill set he offers would be a huge boost for Toronto next season.
Jason – Detroit Pistons – For all the speculation and rumors about the Pistons boldly making big moves to improve their title hopes. However, history suggests that it is highly unlikely. Would anyone really be surprised if they returned with much of last season’s team in 2026-27? That will include Harris on a new team-friendly multi-year deal to help pay for Duren’s contract.
Rui Hachimura
Matt – San Antonio Spurs – The Spurs would be a great fit for Tobias Harris, but he might be slightly outside their price range. Instead, the pivot should be to the Lakers’ forward Rui Hachimura. He looked pretty good this past season, averaging 11.5 PPG while shooting 44.3 percent from beyond the arc (1.7 3PM per game). The 6-foot-8 forward would provide San Antonio with the added depth and talent it needs at the four, even if Hachimura isn’t the best rebounder to put alongside Victor Wembanyama. He’ll do the little things that strengthen the Spurs’ rotation.
Jason – San Antonio Spurs – The Spurs have clearly made bolstering their frontcourt a top offseason priority. They selected not one, but two centers in the draft, and have been linked to a variety of free agent forwards. The Lakers big feels like a nice fit for San Antonio’s style of play because of his athleticism and versatility.
Norman Powell
Matt – Detroit Pistons – Norman Powell has made more than $120 million in career earnings, but the 33-year-old isn’t taking a discount just to play for a contender. We don’t see that being an issue for Detroit. The Pistons’ playoff struggles highlighted their need for a secondary scorer alongside Cade Cunningham. Powell, coming off an All-Star campaign where he averaged 21.7 PPG (2.7 3PM per game) with 39 games of 20-plus points, fills that void perfectly.
Jason – Memphis Grizzlies – The Grizzlies are one of the teams that have the most available cap space this summer after moving Jaren Jackson in the winter and Ja Morant this week. They are bound to spend that money somewhere to add badly needed scoring help. That is why they will be a top option for Norman Powell and his shrinking market. With the Pistons and Heat likely out of the equation, he will look for the best offer possible, and that will probably come from the Grizz.
Tari Eason
Matt – Houston Rockets – Having already predicted two of the top restricted players in NBA free agency to land with new teams, that trend stops here. Tari Eason has reason to be frustrated with the Rockets’ organization, both regarding his role and the lack of progress in contract talks. With that said, Houston’s front office still views him as an integral part of its long-term vision, and competition from other teams can spur action. Ultimately, Eason’s agent will get a feel for what other teams are willing to offer, and then the Rockets will match that to finally give him the long-term deal he’s earned.
Jason – Houston Rockets – A team many thought might be active this offseason is the Rockets. However, despite a disappointing finish to last season, all signs point to them bringing back the same team in 2026-27. That will include 2022 first-round pick Eason. A player that coach Ime Udoka and Houston management are very high on and want to make sure is back next season.
Peyton Watson
Matt – Los Angeles Clippers – The Denver Nuggets would love to bring Peyton Watson back, coming off a campaign where he averaged 14.6 PPG and shot 41.1 percent from beyond the arc. However, the organization is hamstrung financially by the Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, and Christian Braun contracts. Barring a trade, it feels like Watson is gone. Enter the Clippers, who can provide Watson an opportunity to return home to Southern California, where he’ll get an expanded role and life-changing money after earning less than $12 million in four seasons with Denver.
Jason – Brooklyn Nets – Despite creating a reputation for adding big-name stars since their move to Brooklyn in 2012, general manager Sean Marks is dead set on creating a roster built on a young core. While he broke away from that strategy when he traded Nic Claxton in a deal that brought back a well-aged Julius Randle, expect him to return to that plan by using their excess cap space on Watson. The 23-year-old is the sort of young, high-upside veteran Marks wants for his new core.
Anfernee Simons
Matt – Chicago Bulls – The Bulls don’t necessarily need to make a big splash in NBA free agency; re-signing Anfernee Simons can be the right move. He only played in six games for Chicago after being acquired midseason, averaging 15.2 PPG. He genuinely seemed to be a good fit, and with the Bulls still in need of scorers, Simons would give head coach Tiago Splitter someone who can create for himself.
Jason – Chicago Bulls – Chicago has a sizable amount of cap space and is sure to use it somewhere. Simons is still only 27 and was a 20-plus points scorer a night not that long ago. The shooting guard spot might be up for grabs in camp this fall. If Simons doesn’t win it, at the very least, he adds depth and a proven scorer off the bench. Something the Bulls will feel is worth spending on.
Mitchell Robinson
Matt – Brooklyn Nets – The Nets have to spend money in NBA free agency, and even with Day’Ron Sharpe re-signed, there isn’t a clear answer at center. Mitchell Robinson already won his championship ring with the New York Knicks, so now it’s time for him to cash in. Brooklyn will offer him more money than anyone else, and he still gets to live in New York, where he can enjoy the attention that comes from having played a role in delivering the Knicks a championship.
Jason – New York Knicks – It has been 53 years since the Knicks brought New York an NBA title. Meaning it took them over half a century to find a championship-winning recipe. It would be ridiculous not to maintain that for as long as possible, even if owner James Dolan doesn’t want to go over the second tax-apron. After the Knicks inked Jose Alvarado and Landry Shamet to new deals, Robinson must be next. Look for them to sign him to a fair market three-year deal, and then hope they can get Karl-Anthony Towns to opt out of his option for 2027-28 of $61 million and sign a new multi-year deal for a much lower annual rate. That could help New York dip back under the second apron after next season and away from major penalties.
