Matt Johnson
Who will win the NASCAR race this weekend? As we do every week throughout the Cup Series season, we preview and project what we think will happen on the track. That includes looking at the odds set for every driver and offering some analysis on which picks we like for Sunday.
Let’s dive into the preliminary NASCAR odds this week for Circuit of the Americas. The odds are via DraftKings and determined before Saturday’s Cup Series qualifying. Further below, we’ve made four picks we like based on the odds and our projections for the race result.
Related: NASCAR Predictions for Circuit of the Americas
NASCAR Odds This Week: Circuit of the Americas
| Driver | Race Winner | Top 3 Finish |
|---|---|---|
| Shane van Gisbergen | +120 | -250 |
| Connor Zilisch | +350 | +110 |
| Christopher Bell | +900 | +265 |
| William Byron | +1000 | +300 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1600 | +450 |
| Kyle Larson | +1600 | +450 |
| Chase Briscoe | +2000 | +550 |
| Chase Elliott | +2200 | +600 |
| Chris Buescher | +2500 | +700 |
| Ross Chastain | +2800 | +800 |
| Kyle Busch | +2800 | +800 |
| AJ Allmendinger | +3000 | +850 |
| Ty Gibbs | +3500 | +1000 |
| Michael McDowell | +3500 | +1000 |
| Alex Bowman | +4500 | +1200 |
| Ryan Blaney | +4500 | +1200 |
| Joey Logano | +6000 | +1700 |
| Denny Hamlin | +6000 | +1700 |
| Daniel Suarez | +6500 | +1800 |
| Austin Cindric | +8000 | +2200 |
| Ryan Preece | +9000 | +2500 |
| Carson Hocevar | +10000 | +2800 |
| Bubba Wallace | +10000 | +2800 |
| Noah Gragson | +20000 | +5500 |
| Todd Gilliland | +30000 | +8000 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +30000 | +8000 |
| Cole Custer | +30000 | +8000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +30000 | +8000 |
| Austin Dillon | +30000 | +8000 |
| Zane Smith | +30000 | +8000 |
| Jesse Love | +40000 | +11000 |
| Erik Jones | +40000 | +11000 |
| Ty Dillon | +50000 | +13000 |
| Riley Herbst | +50000 | +13000 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | +50000 | +13000 |
| Josh Berry | +50000 | +13000 |
| Cody Ware | +50000 | +13000 |
NASCAR Picks
Alex Bowman – Top 10 Finish (+145)
It’s been a rough start to the season for Alex Bowman, but this feels like the perfect opportunity for him to rebound. Across the last three races at COTA, Bowman has finished no worse than ninth and he has a pair of top-five finishes. The No. 48 isn’t a realistic option to win in Austin—0 laps led in last five races at COTA—but the fact that he’s finished top 10 every time he’s driven here with Hendrick bodes well for another great result.
Related: NASCAR Cup Series Entry List for Circuit of the Americas
Chris Buescher – Top 10 Finish (+120)
Chris Buescher has been incredible at road courses since the 2022 season, boasting an average finishing position of 8.5 in his last 22 races on road and street courses. That figure is even higher (7.2) if you exclude the Chicago Street Race and Mexico City. He also has three top-10 finishes in five career Cup Series races at COTA. We anticipate Buescher making it four consecutive top-10 finishes at COTA.
Related: NASCAR Weekend Schedule for COTA
Tyler Reddick – Top-5 Finish (+210)
Considering his history at COTA, the odds even being this low for Tyler Reddick to record a top-five finish seems like a gift. Since joining 23XI Racing, Reddick has never finished worse than fifth at this track and he also boasts the highest average starting position (2.0) in the entire Cup Series. We don’t think the No. 45 car will make it three consecutive wins on Sunday, but we feel confident picking him for a top-five finish.
Related: NASCAR Drivers Under Most Pressure to Perform at COTA
William Byron – Race Winner (+1000)
Shane van Gisbergen (+120) is the odds-on favorite to win the first road course race of the 2026 season and for good reason. However, we’re choosing William Byron to come out victorious given the listed odds (fourth-highest). He’s already a two-time winner at COTA and he finished second last year, behind Christopher Bell, falling just short of a three-peat. Hendrick Motorsports hasn’t won a race this year and the No. 24 car has had some bad luck. We think fortunes are reversed on Sunday, with Byron winning the DuraMAX Grand Prix.
