Matt Johnson
The NASCAR Cup Series is headed to Circuit of the Americas this weekend for the first road course race of the season. Coming off two competitive races on superspeedways, we’ll certainly be witnessing a very different style of racing on Sunday in Austin, Texas.
Let’s dive into our NASCAR predictions for COTA. As we do every week, we’re projecting the stage winners, a few top finishers and who goes to victory lane.
Connor Zilisch Records First Top-10 Finish in Cup Series
Connor Zilisch is going to win Rookie of the Year by default, but it’s been a rough start to the 2026 season for him. He’s been involved in two wrecks, including one DNF, and sits last among full-time drivers in points (14) entering COTA. Fortunately for the 19-year-old, he’s at the track where he won his first race of the season last year by beating the likes of Austin Hill, William Byron and Ross Chastain. Trackhouse Racing and the No. 88 car are clearly good enough to race near the front on road courses; this was the team’s specialty last season. At the track where he’s finished top-five in each of the last two seasons–fourth in Truck (2024) and first in Xfinity (2025)–Zilisch will record his first top-10 in the Cup Series.
Related: NASCAR Cup Series Entry List for Circuit of the Americas
Bubba Wallace Finishes with Second-Most Stage Points
Bubba Wallace has made real strides on road courses in the last year-plus. He had a 21.8 average finishing position in 2023 on road and street courses, then a 14.8 average finishing position in 2024, and he recorded three top-15 finishes and four inside the top 20 last season. One thing 23XI Racing has also prioritized is stage points on road courses, including a Stage 1 win at COTA last season. Realistically, Wallace isn’t going to finish near the top 10 on Sunday in the DuraMAX Grand Prix. Instead, the No. 23 team will prioritize stage points and it’ll help Wallace come out with the second-most on the day.
Related: NASCAR Weekend Schedule for COTA
Alex Bowman Wins Stage 1
Alex Bowman and the No. 48 team need points. He’s currently 32nd on the leaderboard and it no longer feels like a lock that he makes the playoffs, especially if he doesn’t perform well in Texas. Wins have been rare for Bowman and he faces even longer odds given the dominance of Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Kyle Busch and Shane van Gisbergen. What Bowman can do is position himself for a Stage 1 win, picking up 10 much-needed points, and then the team can pivot to playing for a top-10 finish. Given his history at this track (5.3 average finishing position), Bowman could leave Austin in the top-3 for most points at COTA on Sunday.
Related: NASCAR Points Leaders Before Circuit of the Americas
Tyler Reddick Wins Stage 2
Tyler Reddick certainly could win three consecutive races, we saw Christopher Bell do it last season and that include a victory at COTA. It also helps that Reddick has the second-best average finishing position (3.0) and the highest average starting position (2.0) at Circuit of the Americas since 2023, with fifth place being his worst finish. Two years after he won Stage 2 at COTA in his first race there with 23XI Racing, which he later won, Reddick will repeat history with a stage victory in Austin.
Related: NASCAR Drivers Under Most Pressure to Perform at COTA
William Byron Wins COTA, Shane van Gisbergen Places Second
Shane van Gisbergen is coming off a career-best sixth-place finish on a superspeedway and now he gets to race on a road course. It’s certainly a recipe for a potential rugby kick, even at a track where he’s never finished in the top-five as a full-time Cup Series driver. While the win-and-in playoff scenario is off the table, SVG and his team are already doing well points-wise (16th) right now. He’ll come out of this top-five in stage points thanks to a top starting position and get into a battle with William Byron for the win.
However, it’s going to be the No. 24 car who makes the trip to victory lane. Byron practically owns COTA, as evidenced by consecutive victories in 2023-24. What’s even more impressive is the fact that he finished second last year, finishing just behind Christopher Bell, despite starting in 15th. After some bad luck with his car in these last two weeks, Byron will get his first win of the season on Sunday.
Read More: NASCAR Power Rankings 2026, 10 Best NASCAR Drivers Right Now
