Matt Johnson
NASCAR drivers were elated for the return of the Chase format for the playoffs, as it would serve as a better way to determine a true champion and make each race matter more. However, the format—and the bonus points awarded for a top-three finish at the end of the regular season—now makes a slow start more impactful.
Two races are in the books, both superspeedways, and we now head to the Circuit of the Americas. While no one in the garage is panicking yet over their start to the 2026 NASCAR season, there should be a few drivers who will feel an even greater need to perform very well this weekend.
Let’s dive into our list of the NASCAR drivers who are under the most pressure heading into COTA.
Austin Cindric
Austin Cindric would be in an even more dire spot right now if not for his impressive work to move up from a 30th-place start to a Stage 1 victory. Those 10 stage points accounted for nearly half of his points total (21) in the Autotrader 400, as he got caught up in a final-stage wreck that dropped him to 26th. What really hurts now for the Team Penske driver is that he’s 26th in points entering March, 11 back of the 16th and final playoff spot. COTA has been one of Cindric’s best tracks (32 stage points, 17 laps led and three top-10 finishes in five races), but he did finish 36th last March. This is a golden opportunity for the No. 2 team to rebound, but getting caught up in a wreck or having any issues with the car would be extremely damaging to their playoff hopes.
Related: NASCAR Stock Report After Autotrader 400
Christopher Bell
Christopher Bell has plenty of reason to be upset with Carson Hocevar for the overly aggressive move in overtime at EchoPark. The contact, which sent the No. 20 car careening into the wall, turned a likely top-five finish into 21st for Bell. It’s the last thing Joe Gibbs Racing needed from its championship contender after he came out of the Daytona 500 with just 2 points because of a wreck. We have no doubt that Bell will make the playoffs. However, he’s 100 points back of Tyler Reddick for first and 56 points below Chase Elliott for third place. The Chase gives a big points edge to the top-three drivers, and Bell is already putting himself in a spot where he might miss out on that advantage.
Related: Winners, Losers from the Autotrader 400
Alex Bowman
There was speculation coming into the season about whether Alex Bowman was on the hot seat at Hendrick Motorsports. He’s the only one on the best team in NASCAR whom no one expects to realistically compete for a championship. Instead, the bar is lowered to just making a playoff run. A season removed from not even reaching the Round of 12, Bowman currently finds himself 27 points back of the 16th spot in the Chase. Even more concerning, he’s much further back of playoff contenders like Carson Hocevar (56 behind), Brad Keselowski (43 points behind) and Ryan Preece (31 points behind). Bowman has been outstanding at COTA during his Cup Series career (5.2 average finishing position in five races), so Sunday provides the perfect rebound opportunity. If anything goes wrong, however, many will rightfully start to wonder if Bowman might miss the playoffs entirely.
Related: NASCAR Points Leaders after AutoTrader 400
Kyle Larson
It’s always championship-or-bust for Kyle Larson and the No. 5 team. Returning to the Chase championship format seemingly would’ve benefited him, with his consistency of excellence in the playoffs boding well for his chances of adding a third Cup Series championship to his trophy case. Heading into COTA, Larson trails first place by 78 points, second by 43 points and third by 39 points. He’s certainly capable of overcoming that given his track record. With that said, his history of aggressive driving resulting in a few DNFs gives him a slimmer margin for error. If he can’t make up that ground, Larson would enter the playoffs at least 25 points behind first and potentially a lot more than that.
Related: NASCAR Power Rankings after Atlanta, 10 Best NASCAR Drivers Right Now
Ty Gibbs
We get that nepotism is going to protect Ty Gibbs from facing any real consequences for poor performance. With that said, Joe Gibbs Racing and the No. 54 team are providing him with more than enough help to at least make the playoffs. He couldn’t do it in the win-and-in format, and it certainly doesn’t appear as if he’ll make a run at it in the Chase format. Gibbs has 17 points through two races; 26 drivers have twice as many points, and 11 drivers have three times as many. If Gibbs fails to perform well at COTA, it’s fair to wonder if the outside criticism and skepticism of him starts to get louder and potentially influence what some closer to JGR are thinking about his place in the Cup Series.
