Matt Johnson
The NASCAR In-Season Challenge is back this season, with a field of 32 Cup Series drivers competing for the $1 million prize. We’ve got a bracket set for the first-round matchups, with Round 1 taking place this coming weekend at Sonoma Raceway. Now that we know who is going head-to-head, it’s time to make some picks.
Let’s dive into our Round 1 NASCAR In-Season Challenge predictions for Sonoma.
Related: 2026 NASCAR In-Season Challenge Guide, Schedule, More
(1) Tyler Reddick vs (32) Alex Bowman
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Tyler Reddick and Alex Bowman. In the first 16 points races this year, Reddick posted an average finishing position of 7.2 with 10 top-fives. On the other hand, Bowman had a 23.4 average finishing position with just two top-fives. Even on an oval, we’d have picked Reddick to advance. At a road course like Sonoma, it’s an even easier call.
- Advancing: Tyler Reddick
Related: Latest NASCAR Rumors on Alex Bowman’s Future with Hendrick
(16) Austin Cindric vs (17) Brad Keselowski
Brad Keselowski and Austin Cindric are both in search of their first win this season but it’s certainly not coming at Sonoma Raceway. In the last three races at this track, Keselowski has three top-20 finishes while Cindric has an average finish of 25.7 and has never ended a race inside the top 20. While Keselowski has struggled this summer and his road-course track record doesn’t bode well for advancing to Round 3, we do think he gets by Cindric at Sonoma.
- Advancing: Brad Keselowski
Related: NASCAR Schedule This Week for Sonoma Raceway
(8) Daniel Suarez vs (25) Todd Gilliland
Todd Gilliland has the misfortune of not only facing Daniel Suarez when he’s having a career-best season, but having to go head-to-head against him on a road course. Suarez has the sixth-best career average finishing position (13.9) at Sonoma, whereas Gilliland is 19th (20.0). We’ll take the better road-course driver with superior equipment on Sunday.
- Advancing: Daniel Suarez
Related: Latest Update on Daniel Suarez’s Future with Spire Motorsports
(9) Carson Hocevar vs (24) Zane Smith
Carson Hocevar on a road course is always a gamble. It would be easy to pick him on an oval to beat Zane Smith, but the driver of the No. 77 car can get a bit chaotic on road courses. What’s working in his favor is Smith’s woes at Sonoma–25.7 average finishing position–and his penchant to make some mistakes caused by inexperience. We wouldn’t rule out Smith advancing if Hocevar wrecks, but the No. 77’s track record this season suggests any wrecks he causes will somehow leave his car unscathed.
- Advancing: Carson Hocevar
Related: Zane Smith Generating Big Buzz A Year Out From Silly Season
(12) Chase Briscoe vs (21) AJ Allmendinger
This could technically count as the first ‘upset’ pick in our NASCAR In-Season Challenge Predictions. Chase Briscoe is outstanding behind the wheel of the No. 19 car and he snagged a second-place finish last year at Sonoma in his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing. With that said, it’s a much safer bet to say that A.J. Allmendinger’s road-course excellence will snag him a top-10 finish.
- Advancing: A.J. Allmendinger
(5) Ty Gibbs vs (28) Austin Dillon
For as good as Ty Gibbs is on road courses, Sonoma Raceway (20.7 average finishing position) hasn’t been kind to him. We have, however, been really impressed by the overall consistency and ability to avoid mistakes from the driver of the No. 54 car this season. We have Gibbs advancing, in part because Austin Dillon’s own history at Sonoma–zero top-10 finishes in 11 races–indicates he has a very low ceiling at this track.
- Advancing: Ty Gibbs
Related: 2 Drivers Emerge as Options for RCR’s No. 33 Car in 2027
(13) Bubba Wallace vs (20) Michael McDowell
Ignore the seeding as we don’t think this would be a true upset in the NASCAR In-Season Challenge. Bubba Wallace has made real strides on road courses, but this is one of the worst-case scenarios for him in terms of potential matchups. Michael McDowell has finished 10th or better in his last three races at Sonoma, placing in the top seven in four consecutive races here. Barring disaster for McDowell, he should advance comfortably.
- Advancing: Michael McDowell
Related: Michael McDowell Reveals Who Long-Term Successor Could Be
(4) Chase Elliott vs (29) Noah Gragson
This isn’t a first-round bye for Chase Elliott, but it feels a bit like it. Noah Gragson has statistically been a below-average driver on road courses, with his best finish at Sonoma being 26th two years ago. In contrast, Elliott has consistently been one of the class of the field here and he boasts the second-best average finishing position (10.2) in Sonoma’s history.
- Advancing: Chase Elliott
(2) Denny Hamlin vs (31) Ty Dillon
It was just a year ago that Ty Dillon pulled off the big upset in the NASCAR In-Season Challenge, knocking out Denny Hamlin. It’s only fitting that the two drivers go head-to-head one year later. It could happen again. Hamlin has a career 20.1 average finishing position at Sonoma, with a four-year stretch of finishing 20th or worse. Dillon (25.2 average finish in six races) hasn’t been better, but we’ll roll with the upset and say a DNF knocks Hamlin out in the first round.
- Advancing: Ty Dillon
Related: NASCAR Cup Series All-Time Wins Leaders
(15) Erik Jones vs (18) Joey Logano
Joey Logano has essentially exhausted his margin for error to make The Chase this season and he needs a strong finish at Sonoma just to make up some ground on Erik Jones. Given Jones’ track record here–26.7 average finishing position–we tend to believe the No. 43 team will prioritize stage points on Sunday. That should give Logano a great chance to finish ahead of him, advancing to the second round.
- Advancing: Joey Logano
(7) Chris Buescher vs (26) John Hunter Nemechek
There are very few drivers in NASCAR better on road courses than Chris Buescher. At Sonoma specifically, he’s finished inside the top five in two of the last three years and he boasts the third-highest average finishing position (13.1) on this track among active Cup drivers. Let’s quickly compare that to John Hunter Nemechek, who has finished 29th and 28th here over the last two seasons. It’s an easy pick to make.
- Advancing: Chris Buescher
(10) Christopher Bell vs (23) Ross Chastain
If Christopher Bell didn’t have to race with a fractured wrist, this would be one of the best matchups in the NASCAR In-Season Challenge. Unfortunately, the wheelman of the No. 20 car is just too limited because of the injury and there’s always a chance that Joe Gibbs Racing might have to replace him at some point during the race if Sonoma proves too big of an issue. Even if Bell makes it through the entire race, we just don’t envision a scenario where his limitations allow him to beat Ross Chastain at a track where he’s finished top-10 in four of six races here.
- Advancing: Ross Chastain
Related: Predicting Four Top NASCAR Drivers Who Won’t Make The Chase
(11) William Byron vs (22) Ricky Stenhouse Jr
The 2026 Cup Series season hasn’t been a strong one for William Byron and the No. 24 team. Things might not get that much better at Sonoma, where Byron has recorded just two career top-10 finishes in seven tries in the Cup Series. However, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has recorded just two top-10 finishes in 19 career road-course races. A top-16 finish probably advances Byron past Stenhouse.
- Advancing: William Byron
(6) Kyle Larson vs (27) Riley Herbst
Riley Herbst probably isn’t getting enough recognition for his improvement this season and it’s why he’ll still be racing at the Cup level in 2027 despite 23XI Racing moving on from him. This is just a bad draw for him in the NASCAR In-Season Challenge. Kyle Larson is no SVG, but he has won at Sonoma and he’s finished 10th or better in four of 11 career Cup races here. We think another top-10 is coming on Sunday, whereas Herbst probably finishes outside the top 25.
- Prediction: Kyle Larson
Related: Riley Herbst is Front-Runner for Cup Series Ride in 2027
(14) Shane van Gisbergen vs (19) Ryan Preece
There’s no analysis required here. Shane van Gisbergen is the best road-course driver in NASCAR history. Ryan Preece…is not. Barring someone inexplicably taking the No. 97 car out at Sonoma, he is advancing and probably winning.
- Advancing: Shane van Gisbergen
Related: Latest Intel on Ryan Preece’s Future with RFK Racing
(3) Ryan Blaney vs (30) Josh Berry
It’s been a season to forget for Josh Berry, as evidenced recently by him announcing Wood Brothers Racing isn’t bringing him back in 2027. The No. 21 car just hasn’t shown anything this year to suggest that a turnaround is coming and we’re extraordinarily confident it won’t happen on a road course. Ryan Blaney advances.
- Advancing: Ryan Blaney
