The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs are here and the Round of 16 at Darlington is going to be wild. With only a few races between drivers and the Round of 12, every lap and every finish is going to count.

Before the racing even starts, Dale Earnhardt Jr. shared his thoughts on who might struggle in the first round on his Dale Jr. Download podcast

Related: NASCAR Power Rankings, Evaluating all 16 Drivers before the NASCAR Playoffs

 He pointed out which drivers might struggle to advance and emphasized how close the margins can be and how intensely competitive the playoffs are. As Earnhardt Jr. said, “It’s going to be close… I just can’t see him getting out of the Round of 16.”

Earnhardt Jr. and Hamlin on potential first-round exits

NASCAR: Cup Series Playoff Media Day
Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

One name Earnhardt Jr. mentioned was Shane van Gisbergen (SVG). Earnhardt Jr. said despite a strong rookie campaign and good points, he thought the New Zealander would run into trouble on the ovals and not be able to advance in the Playoffs. “I do not believe that SVG (will advance),” he said. “It’s not a knock on SVG, but I think he barely misses it. I just feel like he’s going to just barely miss it.”

Then, Dale Jr. threw out some other drivers he thought might be first-round victims as well: Ross Chastain, Austin Dillon and Austin Cindric. 

Related: NASCAR Playoff Predictions 2025

Denny Hamlin also weighed in on his Actions Detrimental podcast with a similar take, minus one driver. He offered up SVG, Austin Cindric, Josh Berry, and Austin Dillon as potential first round eliminations. 

He said SVG was capable of being eliminated even with his added points and wins, because if he has just one bad day, he could find himself on the outside looking in. 

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