A few of the top MLB free agents have come off the board early this winter, but some of the biggest names are still on the open market. Given that there tends to be some more movement in MLB free agency in the days leading up to Christmas Day, it’s worth taking a shot at projecting landing spots.
Coming out of the MLB Winter Meetings, let’s dive into our MLB free agency predictions for where the top five free agents will land.
Kyle Tucker, Outfielder: Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays have opened up the proverbial wallet early in MLB free agency, and we don’t anticipate that changing as the winter moves on. All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker already met with club officials, and ownership seems willing to come out on top of a bidding war for his services. Tucker would solve a weakness in the Blue Jays lineup, slotting in at a spot where Toronto ranked 14th in OPS (0.732) at the position. The organization is fully embracing all-in mode, and we think that results in signing Tucker.
Related: Early Winners, Losers from MLB Free Agency
Alex Bregman, Third Baseman: Boston Red Sox
Even putting aside some of the latest MLB rumors, it’s hard to see Alex Bregman and the Boston Red Sox not agreeing to a long-term deal. Fans wanted Pete Alonso, but the club didn’t want to make that long-term commitment to a first baseman/designated hitter, and we can’t necessarily blame them. Bregman proved to be a perfect fit in Boston, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal previously reported that re-signing him is the club’s No. 1 priority. Besides, he should be able to make adjustments to improve his 0.761 OPS at Fenway Park from this past season.
Framber Valdez, Starting Pitcher: New York Mets
There’s certainly a chance that the Baltimore Orioles land Framber Valdez on a long-term deal, pulling one of the top hitters and starters out of MLB free agency. Right now, though, we tend to believe the Pete Alonso contract makes it less likely that Baltimore signs Valdez to a five-year deal. So, with Valdez’s market seemingly limited by clubs worried about his attitude over the catcher incident last season, his options are limited. It gives the New York Mets the opportunity to come in with a short-term deal with a higher AAV. Valdez will likely push for a deal of four-plus years, but we think he settles with a three-year deal to join the Mets rotation.
Cody Bellinger, Outfielder: New York Yankees
Similar to Alex Bregman re-signing with the Red Sox, Cody Bellinger and the New York Yankees finding middle ground feels inevitable. Yes, the Mets are involved, and Steve Cohen would love to poach Bellinger from the Yankees clubhouse. However, Cohen also seems hesitant to sign any of the top MLB free agents to contracts longer than three seasons, and if that’s as far as the Mets will go, the Yankees will beat that. Besides, Bellinger has thrived in Yankee Stadium, and New York needs to do something after being quiet to start the winter.
Ranger Suarez, Starting Pitcher: San Francisco Giants
Reports surfaced early this offseason that the San Francisco Giants are resistant to signing a top starter if it means handing out a contract worth $100-plus million. We think an exception will be made for Ranger Suarez. Over the last four seasons, the southpaw has registered a 3.59 ERA across 588.1 innings pitched. He’s a better clubhouse fit than Framber Valdez and is likely willing to sign for a shorter contract than Tatsuya Imai.
