MLB free agency 2025-26 hasn’t been quite as active as everyone hoped, with many of the top MLB free agents still available as Christmas Day nears. There’s still plenty of time for big signings to happen, meaning teams that have fallen short of expectations in the open market could still turn things around.
More than a month into MLB free agency, we’re highlighting some of the winners and losers so far.
Winner: Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays responded to a heartbreaking loss in Game 7 of the World Series by splurging early in MLB free agency. Dylan Cease got a hefty contract, but Toronto is rightfully betting on a co-ace who finished in the 95th percentile for Whiff rate last season and in the 89th percentile for strikeout rate. To support the back of the rotation, the club brought in Cody Ponce after he turned his career around overseas. Most recently, the Blue Jays bullpen got better with the addition of Tyler Rogers (2.38 ERA over 147.2 IP in last two seasons). Best of all, there’s still a very real chance of Bo Bichette being re-signed and a potential Kyle Tucker signing.
Loser: San Francisco Giants
Buster Posey isn’t at fault for what’s happening with the San Francisco Giants right now. The problem is ownership. It started in March when a 10% stake in the franchise was sold to the private equity firm Sixth Street. Things don’t get better when private equity is brought in; reducing costs to increase revenue is the goal. Suddenly this offseason, the Giants reportedly aren’t interested in spending $100 million-plus on a starting pitcher. Sixth Street might not like to hear this, but that’s the going rate for quality starters in the open market. There’s no reason to expect San Francisco to start splurging later this winter.
Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
The back-to-back World Series champions had a glaring need to address this offseason, and they took care of it quickly. Over the last three seasons, the All-Star closer ranks 11th among qualified relievers in ERA (2.48), sixth in batting average allowed ($0.173$) and third in strikeout rate (38.4%). Los Angeles needed a shutdown closer; Diaz provides it. Equally as valuable to Los Angeles, Diaz took a short-term deal (three years, $69 million) so the Dodgers are still positioning themselves for long-term flexibility if a salary cap is implemented.
Loser: Pittsburgh Pirates
We could give credit to the Pittsburgh Pirates for being aggressive early in MLB free agency and making a genuine effort to sign Kyle Schwarber. Here’s the problem: Pittsburgh is striking out on all the top MLB free agents. Why? Because Pirates owner Bob Nutting has put this franchise in such a disastrous and poorly-run state that top talent wants nothing to do with the club. So, with an MLB salary floor likely incoming, Pittsburgh will have to vastly overspend on mid-tier free agents and overpay for marginal talent just to meet the cap floor. This is what happens when an owner spends years fielding an awful team and investing as little as he can into the on-field product.
Winner: Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles are finally spending serious money in MLB free agency. Yes, the Pete Alonso contract (five years, $155 million) is a significant commitment to a 31-year-old who can barely play first base. However, it was also a desperately needed addition since the Orioles lineup finished 19th in slugging and 21st in OPS last season. Plus, this signing positions Baltimore to flip either Ryan Mountcastle or Coby Mayo for a starting pitcher. We’ve been waiting years for the Orioles to spend, and they finally did it; credit is due.
Loser: New York Mets
In the span of just a few weeks, the New York Mets moved on from Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz. We can justify in some regard the decision to not re-sign Alonso, but giving Jorge Polanco $20 million per year is a massive risk given his knee issues. New York certainly improved defensively by bringing in Marcus Semien, but he’s coming off a two-year stretch at the plate with a .234/.307/.379 triple-slash line and a .686 OPS. So, if his fielding dips considerably in his age 35 season, he’s a complete negative for New York. Oh, we’re also still waiting on the Mets rotation to be addressed.
