Andy Johnson
The MLB Regular Season begins today, and it is time to make predictions about how it will shake out. The Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorites to win it all, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are the easy choices to win MVP awards, and the Cy-Young favorites will once again be Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes.
Those are the easy predictions. We know what we’re getting out of those players. So let’s get a little crazier. Here are 5 bold predictions that you might not see coming, ahead of the MLB season.
Related: MLB Trade Candidates 2026: 8 Players Who Could Be Dealt This Season
1. The Dodgers will not reach the World Series
The Dodgers certainly have the scariest lineup in the league, but their rotation is full of injury risks. Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Shohei Ohtani have all dealt with significant injuries that have held them back in their careers. The chances all four of the Dodger aces are able to stay healthy seem to be very slim. After that, it’s a group of younger arms like Emmett Sheehan, Roki Sasaki, and Bobby Miller who will be tasked to hold down the rotation.
That group might be okay during the regular season, but in the postseason, the Dodgers will be at risk. The Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, and Chicago Cubs probably represent the biggest challengers to the Dodgers’ throne in the NL, and all of those teams have the offensive firepower to beat up on an injury-weakened Los Angeles rotation.
2. Nobody will hit 50 home runs
Four players eclipsed 50 home runs in 2025 (Cal Raleigh, Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, Shohei Ohtani). The last time that happened was in 2001, during the peak of the steroid era. The chances all four sluggers reach the 50-home run mark again are slim, but let’s take it a step further. What if nobody reaches 50 home runs in 2026? That hasn’t happened since 2021, when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. led the league with 48 bombs.
Raleigh is coming off a season in which he played in 159 games as a catcher (and an extra 12 playoff games as well). He’s going to need extra rest this year after the massive workload in 2025. Ohtani is going to be pitching full-time again, taking some of his focus away from the plate. He’s only hit 50 home runs the past two seasons, when he was not also a fully stretched-out member of the rotation. Schwarber is coming off a career year in which he hit 56 home runs, but that’s the only time he’s ever reached 50. The chances he does it again in his age-33 season feel low.
Judge feels like the guy with the best chance to hit 50 home runs. Every year that Judge has played at least 150 games, he’s hit at least 50 home runs. The catch is, he’s only stayed healthy for 150 games in four seasons in his ten-year career. It feels like the three-time AL MVP is due for at least a minor injury, and if Judge misses a few weeks of action, he will come up just short of 50 bombs.
3. Pete Alonso will lead the league in home runs
The Polar Bear has not led the league in home runs since his Rookie-of-the-Year campaign in 2019, when he blasted 53 home runs. Now heading to Baltimore, Alonso will be in the middle of a strong lineup and playing at a home-run-friendly ballpark. With on-base threats like Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg surrounding him in the lineup, Alonso’s only job is to hit bombs. If he can hit around 45 home runs, he can lead the league. He hit 38 last year, but it feels like the Polar Bear is due for an even bigger season in 2026.
4. The Athletics will make the playoffs
This one might be too bold, but the Athletics have a sneaky good lineup. Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers have emerged as two of the premier young power hitters in the game. Brent Rooker continues to be reliable as ever at DH, and the duo of Denzel Clarke and Lawrence Butler provides good defense in the outfield. The A’s also added veteran utility man Jeff McNeil, who lengthens the lineup and adds depth to their defense.
Pitching could be what costs this team, but there is talent atop the rotation. Luis Severino was once the ace of the New York Yankees. Jeffrey Springs and Aaron Civale have been reliable MLB arms for a few years now. If they can hold down the rotation, the offense can carry this squad back to the postseason, even if they might be a few years away from true World Series contention.
5. Nobody will throw 200 innings
This would be historical, but it is bound to happen sooner or later. In every full MLB season (excluding 2020 and strike-shortened seasons), at least one pitcher has thrown over 200 innings. But innings are trending down. In 2024, Logan Gilbert led the league with 208.2 innings and was one of just four arms to reach the 200-inning mark. Last year, only three players tossed 200 innings, led by Logan Webb at 207 innings.
The unique factor this year is that two of the three starters who threw 200 innings last year have already given innings to the World Baseball Classic (Webb and Cristopher Sanchez). That extra wear and tear on their arms could keep them from reaching 200 innings in the regular season. Tarik Skubal (195 innings in 2025) and Paul Skenes (187 innings in 2025) also both started games in the WBC, and Carlos Rodon (195.1 innings in 2025) is starting the season on the IL. 2025 probably was not the last time we’ll ever see a 200-inning starter, but 2026 could be the first time we don’t see one.
Related: MLB Breakout Candidates 2026: 5 Pitchers Poised to Thrive This Season
