Matt Johnson
The first pitch of the 2026 Major League Baseball season is scheduled for Wednesday, March 25, with the New York Yankees facing the San Francisco Giants on Netflix. The rest of the league follows on Opening Day that Thursday, officially starting what should be another exciting year for baseball. As we do every year, we’re delivering MLB projections for each club this season.
Let’s dive into our 2026 MLB predictions for each team. We’ll take it division by division, starting with the American League followed by the National League.
Toronto Blue Jays – 89-73
The Toronto Blue Jays delivered a 20-win improvement in 2025, reaching the postseason and coming within one out of winning the World Series. While Bo Bichette’s bat is gone, Toronto upgraded its pitching staff with the additions of Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce and Tyler Rogers. We still anticipate this being a top-10 lineup, and with some of the top competition in the AL East dealing with injuries early in the season, we think that could be a difference-maker that allows the Blue Jays to win the division.
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Baltimore Orioles – 87-75
The Baltimore Orioles fell short of expectations in 2025, in part because much of the young core everyone had high expectations for failed to meet them. Fortunately, ownership finally committed to spending money and added Pete Alonso’s right-handed pop to the lineup. Injuries have already proven to be a bit of an issue for Baltimore this spring, and the Orioles rotation is by no means exceptional. However, improvements along the margins and a 30-homer bat coming to Baltimore, paired with improvements from Gunnar Henderson, Samuel Basallo and Colton Cowser, can get the Orioles into a wild-card spot.
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New York Yankees – 87-75
If the New York Yankees had a healthy Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt, we’d pick this club to win the AL East. However, all three starters are sidelined to start the 2026 MLB season, and there are no guarantees Cole will be back to his normal self in his first season post-Tommy John surgery. There’s also been turnover in the bullpen, opening the door to a little volatility. The Yankees’ lineup, led by an MVP-caliber season from Aaron Judge, will still be enough to get them into the postseason. Once October arrives, things get a lot more interesting with this pitching staff.
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Boston Red Sox – 85-77
The ceiling for the 2026 Boston Red Sox is an AL East title and potentially the American League pennant. Boston’s rotation is the best in baseball, and the back end of the bullpen will preserve a majority of leads in critical spots. The unknown all comes down to what the Red Sox get out of the likes of Marcelo Mayer, Ceddanne Rafaela, Caleb Durbin and even Trevor Story at the plate. We do tend to like teams that boast great pitching and are good defensively, but the excellence of the AL East paired with some consistency questions at key spots in the batting order are reasons to have pause with Boston.
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Tampa Bay Rays – 76-88
The Tampa Bay Rays have finished within eight games of .500 or better every year since 2017. No matter who is on the roster, this team always finds a way to be competitive. Last season did demonstrate, however, that the young Rays can go through some massive dips. Run production will likely dip with the team’s return to Tropicana Field, and pitching remains a massive question mark. We have no doubt that Tampa Bay will find a way to win 70-plus games, but the top-heavy division might result in the Rays finishing 10 games below .500 for the first time in a decade.
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Detroit Tigers – 89-93
There are going to be Tarik Skubal trade rumors in the early months of the season and plenty of debate about whether he should be moved in his walk year. Given our expectation that the Detroit Tigers will win the AL Central comfortably, we can’t fathom a scenario where the two-time AL Cy Young Award winner is traded. Detroit’s rotation is outstanding, and the Tigers’ lineup isn’t short on sources of run production, either. There’s honestly a chance that the Tigers win 90 games for the first time since 2014, and we think they could finish with the best record in the American League this season.
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Kansas City Royals – 82-80
Until the Kansas City Royals get more aggressive about surrounding Bobby Witt Jr. with more talent, it’s hard to envision a scenario where this club makes up ground in the American League. We do believe Witt can win AL MVP this season, but that’ll be more of a testament to his production and impact rather than Kansas City’s record. Moving the fences in will help the Royals score more consistently, and Jac Caglianone is due for a big step forward. Unfortunately for the Royals, we don’t have much faith in the pitching staff being anything better than a league-average unit. There’s not enough talent in the lineup or bullpen to make up for that.
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Cleveland Guardians – 77-85
The Cleveland Guardians were two games below .500 entering the final week of August and then pulled off a final stretch with a 24-8 record. We tend to believe the better indicator of what this team is came during that 130-game stretch. Besides, Cleveland made minimal moves this offseason to address its shortcomings, and this team is multiple tiers below the Tigers and a tier below the Royals.
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Minnesota Twins – 75-87
Needless to say, our expectations for the Minnesota Twins in 2026 are quite low. Ownership has done everything in its power to demonstrate that investing in a winning product is not even in the top 50 of priorities. That sentiment can impact a clubhouse, especially if a team gets off to a slow start. There will be promising signs from Luke Keaschall, Matt Wallner and Taj Bradley, but Minnesota will get off to a sluggish start, and the trade speculation for a selling club will sink things further. Truly, the only hope is that Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton can be traded to competitive clubs and Minnesota commits to a full rebuild.
Chicago White Sox – 70-92
It wasn’t exactly the most conventional offseason for the Chicago White Sox, given they shed payroll and signed the likes of Munetaka Murakami and Seranthony Dominguez. However, it at least makes this club a bit more interesting to watch in 2026. We’re excited to see what Shane Smith, Kyle Teel, Colson Montgomery and Murakami can do this season in a situation with no pressure. There’s at least enough upside in Chicago to think this team might have a decent shot at 70 wins for the first time since 2023.
Seattle Mariners – 88-74
The Seattle Mariners are absolutely capable of winning the American League pennant in 2026. We view the entirety of the pitching staff as a top-five unit in baseball when healthy, and that group is balanced out by a top-10 lineup. A full season of Josh Naylor and the acquisition of Brendan Donovan should help aid in the consistency of Seattle, and there is also ceiling here because of Dominic Canzone’s bat and the lingering hopes of Julio Rodríguez finally putting together a first half that resembles his MVP-caliber production in the second half of seasons. Home-field advantage is absolutely on the table for Seattle, but winning the AL West is a safer bet given the moderate durability concerns with some starting pitchers.
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Texas Rangers – 85-77
The Texas Rangers lineup, in part due to injuries, wasted fantastic pitching in 2025. Even if the Rangers rotation cannot replicate its success from last season, it can still be a top-five staff in the AL if everyone stays healthy. That tasks youngsters like Evan Carter, Josh Jung and Wyatt Langford to take further steps forward in the batter’s box while Corey Seager stays healthy and Jake Burger rebounds from a rough season. We are confident in Langford taking that next step, emerging as an All-Star outfielder in 2026. The other factors are far more uncertain. While 87 wins could be on the table for Texas in a best-case scenario, the volatility with this roster makes them likelier to hang around the .500 mark.
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Houston Astros – 83-79
The Houston Astros have posted a winning record in five consecutive seasons—or 10, if you exclude the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Unfortunately, this team—namely Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Christian Walker—is losing the battle to Father Time, and the rotation always seems to be missing at least one key starter for a significant stretch. Gone are the days when either the lineup or the pitching staff could carry the club while the other figured things out or got healthy. What you have now is an Astros roster that is good enough to be competitive, but it now finds itself looking up at a lot more teams in the American League.
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Sacramento Athletics – 78-84
We wish we could be even more optimistic about the Sacramento Athletics. The lineup boasts an MVP-caliber hitter in Nick Kurtz with exceptional surrounding talent in Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, Shea Langeliers, Jacob Wilson and Lawrence Butler, with Jeff McNeil now even a part of it. There is a real scenario where the Athletics finish top-five in runs scored. Unfortunately for Sacramento, pitching matters. The Athletics have a bottom-five pitching staff and, without fail, that always comes back to bite you in a 162-game season.
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Los Angeles Angels – 69-93
It is a shame that this is how Mike Trout’s career has to wind down, but the future Hall of Famer also chose this path. The Los Angeles Angels are banking on the likes of Yoan Moncada, Jorge Soler, Josh Lowe and Jo Adell in 2026, ingredients for a lineup that finishes in the bottom 10 for runs scored with one of the highest strikeout rates in Major League Baseball. As for the pitching in Los Angeles? Well, maybe Alek Manoah and Grayson Rodriguez miraculously tap into what made them top prospects, but we are not betting on it with this coaching staff. Suffice to say, the Angels will probably be one of the worst teams in the American League again.
New York Mets – 88-74
While losing Pete Alonso hurts a bit, adding Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco and Luis Robert Jr. should more than make up for it for the New York Mets. Robert and Marcus Semien will also help improve New York’s infield defense, especially if Bichette can at least field the position well. Of course, the real excitement with the Mets centers around what could be a co-ace pairing with Freddy Peralta and Nolan McLean. With the depth behind them and our expectations for Devin Williams in 2026, this could be a top-10 pitching staff. It will be a third consecutive winning season for New York, and we believe it will end with their best record since 2022.
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Atlanta Braves – 86-76
The Atlanta Braves seem forever snake-bitten, with the latest evidence being the 162-game suspension for Jurickson Profar, coming just a few months after the hand injury to Ha-Seong Kim. That is not even accounting for the fact that Spencer Schwellenbach is on the 60-day injured list, with AJ Smith-Shawver still recovering from Tommy John surgery, all at a time when Hurston Waldrep is working his way back from elbow surgery. It will be a testament to the front of the Braves’ rotation and the core of the Atlanta lineup that this club still contends for a Wild Card spot.
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Philadelphia Phillies – 86-76
The Philadelphia Phillies are effectively running it back with the same lineup as last season, only now hoping that Adolis García can recapture some of his magic from a few seasons ago. It’s not exactly a winning recipe when you have an aging Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto, with Alec Bohm failing to live up to expectations. Still, the Phillies pitching staff is a delight to watch and will be an elite unit when Zack Wheeler returns. If we had more faith in the lineup, this would be the pick to win the National League East.
Miami Marlins – 75-87
At this stage of their rebuild, the Miami Marlins are really just finding their footing in the National League East. It is great to see what Xavier Edwards has made of his career, and given what Kyle Stowers did in 2025, maybe Agustín Ramírez and Owen Caissie are the breakout bats in Miami this year. The starting rotation is a lot more intriguing, albeit with the obvious durability caveats involving Eury Pérez and Max Meyer, as well as the question marks surrounding Chris Paddack and Braxton Garrett. At a minimum, the Marlins should feel confident that they will not be anywhere near a 100-loss team.
Washington Nationals – 66-96
How many rebuilds is this now for the Washington Nationals? We get why MacKenzie Gore was traded, and there are strong arguments to be made for C.J. Abrams to be dealt this summer. With that said, we are looking at a sixth consecutive season where the Nationals are projected to lose 90-plus games; they were bad enough in the 2020 season (.433 winning percentage) that the streak feels even longer. We want to be excited about Dylan Crews making real strides after a rough rookie season, creating an electric tandem in the lineup with James Wood. There is just that inescapable feeling of a perpetual rebuild in Washington, and that can have an effect on young players in the years to come.
Chicago Cubs – 88-74
The Chicago Cubs now boast one of the best rosters in Major League Baseball, with the offseason additions of Alex Bregman and Edward Cabrera addressing glaring weaknesses from last season. While there might not be a National League MVP candidate or Cy Young Award winner in Chicago, this team is good across the board, and that is with Justin Steele working his way back from elbow surgery. While the Cubs do not necessarily have the elite tier of difference-makers to potentially win the World Series, it would not be a surprise if Wrigley Field hosted a few National League Championship Series games in October.
Milwaukee Brewers – 84-78
It is certainly possible that the Milwaukee Brewers could make this projection look foolish by the summer. After all, this club has three consecutive seasons with 90-plus wins and has won the National League Central each time. However, the Freddy Peralta trade did leave a real void near the front of the rotation that we are not sure Jacob Misiorowski is ready to fill as an ace. Brandon Woodruff is also a durability risk in his age-33 season, and the Brewers probably will not have a top-10 lineup in 2026. Milwaukee could surprise us again, but right now there just is not a ton of faith in this roster even challenging for 88 wins.
Pittsburgh Pirates – 81-81
Maybe we are being too optimistic with the Pittsburgh Pirates. What we see is a club that, with the acquisitions of Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna and Ryan O’Hearn, could actually challenge for league-average run production this season. That would be enough that, paired with excellent pitching, Pittsburgh could at least be in the conversation for a .500 record this season. Plus, with the farm system in place and top prospect Konnor Griffin coming, we are optimistic that Pittsburgh could have its first non-losing season since 2018.
Cincinnati Reds – 76-86
Elly De La Cruz’s production tailed off in the second half of last season, and ace Hunter Greene is dealing with elbow stiffness. If the Cincinnati Reds’ two best players cannot carry this team for the entire season, it could get ugly in Ohio. With that said, another strong campaign from TJ Friedl, paired with the return of Eugenio Suárez to Cincinnati, should at least give a bit more stability to this lineup. Plus, we do love the Reds’ rotation when everyone is healthy. Another losing season feels inevitable, but at least there are aspects of this ballclub that make it enjoyable to watch.
St. Louis Cardinals – 74-88
We commend the St. Louis Cardinals for committing fully to the rebuild, and this will be one of the youngest teams in Major League Baseball this season. On the one hand, that means seeing flashes of promise from the likes of JJ Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera, Masyn Winn, and Matthew Liberatore. However, there will also be prolonged cold spells, both from a lineup featuring young players looking to establish themselves—such as Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker—along with a pitching staff that is largely unproven. The source for optimism stems from the belief that the overhaul within the organization creates a better future and improved player development.
Los Angeles Dodgers – 100-62
We do believe the Los Angeles Dodgers can finish the season with 100 wins, even with the guarantee that injuries will keep striking the rotation. Los Angeles boasts better pitching depth than it did a year ago, both for the rotation and bullpen, all the while rostering the league’s top lineup. Plus, the National League West isn’t quite as strong as it used to be. While it is an easy pick, this team does feel destined to head back to the World Series and join exclusive company with a three-peat as champions.
Arizona Diamondbacks – 86-76
If Corbin Burnes and Merrill Kelly were healthy, the Arizona Diamondbacks might be one of the 10 best teams in baseball. Unfortunately for the Diamondbacks, Burnes is sidelined until the summer while recovering from Tommy John surgery and Kelly is likely starting the season on the injured list. With that said, the Diamondbacks made improvements defensively this winter, and we see plenty of reasons to believe this club could finish top-10 in run production. Snagging a Wild Card spot is absolutely on the table for Arizona, and there could even be a bit of a postseason run if it gets the right playoff matchup and has a healthy rotation.
San Diego Padres – 83-79
Since 2020, the San Diego Padres have finished below .500 just once, and they have won 79-plus games in each season. That is to say that even after a quiet offseason and with the looming sale of the club leading to budget constraints, this team will likely find ways to win. San Diego still boasts an excellent bullpen and could have one of the most productive lineups in the National League, health permitting. So, while the rotation may face durability questions, we suspect the talent on this roster will stay above a .500 record this season.
San Francisco Giants – 81-81
It is a tale as old as time: the San Francisco Giants roster is just good enough for this team to be average. There will be stretches where they take a series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, beat the Arizona Diamondbacks and win six or seven games in a row. We will see speculation about San Francisco being a buyer at the Major League Baseball trade deadline. However, not enough was done in the winter to improve the back end of the rotation, and it is hard to have much faith in the bullpen. On the bright side, the farm system is finally on the rise.
Colorado Rockies – 60-102
Let’s make it a fourth consecutive season with 100-plus losses for the Colorado Rockies. Coming off one of the worst single seasons in the last 40 years, it is fair to argue that the team did little this offseason to create a semblance of hope for the immediate future. The Rockies are going to be the club that everyone beats up on in 2026. We have put as much effort into forecasting positives for the team as its ownership has in investing in the on-field product and player development.
