Matt Johnson
The 2026 Major League Baseball season is right around the corner. Sportsnaut always likes to make MLB predictions well before Opening Day, projecting both how teams will perform and also players. First, we’re diving into who we think will take home honors like MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and more.
Let’s dive into our annual MLB awards predictions, making way-too-early picks for who in the National League and American League take home all the major honors.
AL Rookie of the Year: Samuel Basallo, Baltimore Orioles
It says a lot about a young player if the Baltimore Orioles are willing to sign them to a contract extension just a few days after they made their MLB debut, especially when they already have Adley Rutschman. Samuel Basallo certainly struggled in his first test against major-league pitching, posting a .165 batting average and .559 OPS across 109 at-bats. However, he was only 20 years old and it can be very difficult for young players to both adjust to the competition while also learning to work as the battery mate for a new pitching staff. Basallo will now have a lot more familiarity with Baltimore’s pitchers and his track record as a hitter across the minors rivals some of the best prospects in baseball in the last few years. With protection in the lineup from the likes of Gunnar Henderson, Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward, Basallo will look much better as a hitter in 2026. When you pair that with the Orioles’ resurgence and his added value as a catcher, he’ll take home the AL’s Rookie of the Year honors.
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NL Rookie of the Year: Konnor Griffin, Pittsburgh Pirates
There’s generational hype surrounding Pittsburgh Pirates prospect Konnor Griffin. FanGraphs believes he could make Paul Skenes the second-best player in the organization and there are MVP comparisons for the shortstop. While he might not make the Opening Day roster, the incentives to a team for one of its players winning Rookie of the Year will help get him to the majors fairly quickly. We also expect Pittsburgh to be significantly improved this season, thanks to the additions of Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna. With a double-digit win improvement for the team, Griffin’s numbers will rightfully be viewed as a catalyst and he’ll take home National League Rookie of the Year.
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AL Manager of the Year: Craig Albernaz, Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles fired skipper Brandon Hyde last May amid a disappointing start to the season (15-28), and the team finished with a winning record (60-59) under an interim skipper. Now, first-year manager Craig Albernaz inherits an Orioles roster that could be just as good as it was when it won 90-plus games in consecutive seasons. The AL East is the toughest division in baseball, and that could make it difficult for Baltimore to record 90-plus wins. With that said, we do think the Orioles clinch a playoff spot with 10-15 more wins than last season, and that gets Albernaz the AL Manager of the Year honors.
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NL Manager of the Year: Walt Weiss, Atlanta Braves
Walt Weiss is back as a manager for the first time in a decade, with the Atlanta Braves promoting him to the gig this offseason. He didn’t exactly fare well in his last stint (.437 winning percentage with the Colorado Rockies), but this is a vastly superior situation. A season after Atlanta finished 10 games under .500, largely because it was decimated by injuries, we think Weiss is named National League Manager of the Year after the Braves win 90 games and take back the NL East for the first time in three years.
AL Reliever of the Year: Cade Smith, Cleveland Guardians
New York Yankees closer David Bednar was an obvious consideration to win the AL Reliever of the Year award. We went in another direction. Cleveland Guardians reliever Cade Smith was thrust into the closer’s role last summer, following the loss of Emmanuel Clase. After two blown saves in July, he went 13-for-16 on save opportunities the rest of the way with a 2.60 ERA and a 38.2 percent strikeout rate. He added a 0.69 WHIP and a .172 batting average allowed in the final two months. Cleveland is going to be in a lot of tight games this season, tasking Smith with preserving wins. He won’t have as many saves as Bednar, but he’ll still get 30-plus with a far better ERA and strikeout rate.
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NL Reliever of the Year: Edwin Diaz, Los Angeles Dodgers
In the final two months of the 2025 MLB season, the Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen ranked 21st in ERA (4.34). That led to splurging on Edwín Díaz. We do recognize that he’s never had consecutive seasons with a sub-3 ERA and is coming off an All-Star campaign with a 1.63 ERA. However, he’ll be pitching for a club that will finish with the most wins in baseball and even an ERA in the 3.0-3.2 range will be more than enough to challenge for 40 saves. As the league-leader in saves with one of the highest strikeout rates in MLB, he’ll take home National League Reliever of the Year.
AL Cy Young: Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
Voter fatigue is real. Prior to Tarik Skubal, there have been five starting pitchers to win the Cy Young Award in consecutive seasons since 1999 and just one (Randy Johnson, 1999-2002) made it three consecutive years. In fact, a pitcher has only won it three years in a row twice (Johnson and Greg Maddux). Unless Skubal has one of the best seasons in the modern era, we don’t see the Detroit Tigers starter taking it home again.
That opens the door for Boston Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet to take it home. He’s posted the fifth-lowest ERA (3.00) among starters in the last two seasons with MLB’s highest strikeout rate (32.9 percent) and K-BB rate (27.3 percent). We think Crochet will again lead the majors in strikeouts, and with a sub-2.5 ERA and 17-plus wins, he is named the American League Cy Young award recipient.
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NL Cy Young: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Paul Skenes went 10-10 last season despite posting the lowest ERA (1.97) and WHIP (0.95) in the majors. We think with the improvements made by the Pirates this offseason, Skenes wins at least 18 games this season. Keep in mind that the hurler allowed 0 earned runs in 14 starts last year, with 2 or fewer earned runs surrendered in 78 percent of his starts. He’s that good of a pitcher and with more run support from the Pirates lineup, there’s even a shot. that he becomes MLB’s first 20-game winner since 2023. As a 24-year-old, we believe Skenes will have two NL Cy Young awards on his trophy case.
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AL MVP: Bobby Witt Jr, Kansas City Royals
We don’t see Aaron Judge becoming the first player in MLB history to win AL MVP four times. As for Cal Raleigh, his .859 OPS and .229 batting average after the All-Star Break don’t bode well for him replicating last season’s historic stats. Instead, we’re projecting Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to be named the American League’s Most Valuable Player. Over the last two seasons, Witt has the second-highest fWAR (18.5) in all of baseball with the fourth-best OPS (.915). He’s more than capable of putting up a .900-plus OPS with 30-plus homers and 40-plus steals, with 200 hits and 200 runs produced in a season. Plus, he provides outstanding defense (100th percentile Outs Above Average) at the most valuable position in baseball. All of that will result in him winning his first MVP award.
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NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
For some of our MLB awards predictions, we’ve made the point that voter fatigue and history are reasons why Aaron Judge (AL MVP) and Tarik Skubal (AL Cy Young) won’t win again. It’s a different story with Shohei Ohtani. He’s the best player on the best team in baseball, but his two-way success is the trump card here. He’s coming off consecutive seasons with 54-plus home runs and has led the league in OPS and runs scored each year. The numbers he puts up offensively would be enough to make him an NL MVP finalist on their own. Add in the likelihood of him having a sub-3.2 ERA across 20-plus starts with 150-plus strikeouts, and you have a player whose contributions are impossible to ignore. Barry Bonds won NL MVP seven times, so a fifth MVP for Ohtani isn’t out of the question.
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