Japanese starting pitcher Roki Sasaki is widely viewed as one of the best baseball players outside of the United States, with major league teams scouting him more than a year ahead of MLB free agency. Now that Sasaki is set to hit the open market, MLB rumors are swirling about which team will land the Japanese superstar.
Sasaki, who turned 23 years old on Nov. 3, is coming off a historic career at a young age in the Nippon Professional Baseball. Since making his NPB debut in 2021, the right-handed pitcher has thrown a perfect game, set the NPB single-game strikeout record (19) and the world record for consecutive strikeouts (13).
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However, Sasaki’s stock took a slight hit following the 2024 NPB season. He had an injury-riddled campaign, throwing just 111 innings with a stint on the injured list for an arm issue. It also meant that he finished his NPB career having never thrown 130 innings in a season.
- Roki Sasaki stats 2024 (Baseball Reference): 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 4.03 K/BB, 10.5 K/9, 6.7 H/9, 0.2 HR/9 in 111 innings pitched
However, as reported by ESPN‘s Jeff Passan, the Chiba Lotte Marines announced that they will post Sasaki for teams to bid on in MLB free agency. While the 23-year-old starting pitcher isn’t expected to be posted officially until January, two co-favorites have already emerged for him.
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Who will sign Roki Sasaki?
‘MLB.com‘s senior reporter Mark Feinsand wrote on a Reddit AM that the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers are viewed as the co-favorites to land him. Importantly, Sasaki’s decision will not be heavily influenced by money.
That’s because of MLB’s international free agent rules regarding players under the age of 25. Sasaki is entering free agency under the international bonus pool money restrictions, meaning he can’t be signed for more than $6 million. It’s also dependent on how much bonus pool money in 2025 clubs have already committed to other top international free agents.
- Roki Sasaki career stats (NPB): 2.45 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 5.74 K/BB, 11.5 K/9, 6.0 H/9, 0.3 HR/9 in 394.2 innings pitched
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“Sasaki’s talent is not in doubt to anyone, even as his average fastball velocity this season dropped by two ticks, down to just above 97 mph. Sasaki showed plenty of ability to ramp it up to triple digits when desired, and he could soon develop into the hardest-throwing starter in MLB. His best pitch is still the splitter, whose movement profile makes it unique, even in an MLB where the splitter has come back into vogue in recent seasons.”
ESPN‘s Jeff Passan on Roki Sasaki
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With money not the deciding factor and Sasaki locked into the equivalent of a six-year contract, also subject to MLB’s arbitration system, clubs will have to recruit Sasaki to sign with them.
That’s why the Dodgers and Padres have an advantage. Los Angeles can both offer Sasaki the opportunity to compete for a World Series contender with less pressure on his shoulders with the spotlight on fellow Japanese stars Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Meanwhile, San Diego will have starting pitcher Yu Darvish as part of its recruiting pitch because of his strong relationship with Sasaki.
While other clubs like the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles and San Francisco Giants are also going to aggressively pursue Sasaki, MLB rumors for months have long suggested he’ll likely land with the Padres or Dodgers.
