After 162 games and plenty of intrigue, the MLB playoffs have finally arrived.
Perhaps the biggest news in 2023 is who didn’t make the playoff drive. No New York teams, despite having the two highest payrolls in the game. No Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals or San Francisco Giants. And somehow, no San Diego Padres, despite boasting baseball’s most star-studded roster.
Related: MLB games today – Get watch times and odds for the next MLB playoffs matchups
Today, though, we are focusing on which teams have made it to the postseason, how they got there, and who has the best chance to keep going.
Get buckled up. MLB playoffs start Tuesday.
The team to beat in MLB playoffs
Atlanta Braves
They have MLB’s best record, home field throughout the playoffs, the most powerful offense on the planet, and arguably the deepest pitching staff. Plus, they have vast playoff experience, including winning the whole thing in 2021. They are unquestionably the club to beat here. They look like one of the most well-rounded clubs in years. But they were arguably that club last year, too, and lost to the division rival Philadelphia Phillies in the National League Division Series. That’s why they play the games.
The team to beat, AL version
Baltimore Orioles
If you haven’t watched the Orioles this year, you might think their 101 wins and division title are somewhat flukey. They aren’t. The Orioles don’t have any household names – although some are heading that way – and they don’t lead the majors in offense or pitching. They are just a solid all-around team that plays good defense and knows how to win. They have 48 comeback victories this year, meaning they just keep plugging away for 27 outs. It’s an inexperienced group, though, so the postseason’s bright lights will be a new challenge.
The most head-scratching team
Houston Astros
The defending champions still have a formidable roster and will be tough for any opponent. But injuries and some disappointing individual seasons forced the Astros to sweat out a playoff spot. They went into Sunday not knowing if they would be the second seed or the fifth or the sixth. Then they blew out the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday and ended up winning the AL West again, their sixth division title in seven seasons.
The most head-scratching team, NL version
Milwaukee Brewers
If the postseason is primarily about pitching, the Brewers have a shot. Perhaps no one matches up with their top four starters, and All-Star closer Devin Williams fronts an excellent bullpen. But you must hit, too, and the Brewers were 17th in runs scored and 23rd in OPS. They’ll have to win several 1-0 and 2-1 games to make a push. With that pitching staff, they could.
Hottest team
Minnesota Twins
We must discount the too-little, too-late Padres, who finally put it all together in September, going 20-8 to finish the year, but failed to make the playoffs. So that leaves … the Twins? The most dismissible team in the postseason – they won the division partially because no one else could play close to .500 ball in the AL Central – Minnesota went 18-10 in September/October and won 11 of their final 16. Most of those games were against bad teams, but you still must win the ones you should down the stretch. It gets a lot harder now, with the Twins having the unenviable task of hosting the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card round.
Hottest team, NL version
Miami Marlins
The Marlins were given up for dead in the second half, posting a 19-32 record in July and August. But they got hot in September, winning 17 of 26, and backed their way into the fifth seed in the NL when they and the Diamondbacks both lost Sunday. The Marlins were 33-13 in one-run games this year and they won seven of 13 against the Phillies. Their rotation is a strength, so maybe they could ride that to an early upset.
Most dangerous team
Philadelphia Phillies
It just feels like these Phillies are toying with everyone. They had a winning record in all but one of their full months this season, and they snoozed their way to a 90-win season. And now Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and company host a Wild Card round and then, if they get past the Marlins, will face the Braves again. The Phillies are 5-8 against Atlanta this year but won three out of four last postseason against Atlanta on their way to the 2022 World Series. Would it surprise anyone if this balanced team got on another postseason run?
Most dangerous team, AL version
Toronto Blue Jays
The Rays grabbed the headlines early and the Orioles later, but the Jays have quietly stayed above water with an underachieving club. They may have the best overall pitching staff in the majors and have an offense that should be much better. They are similar to the Phillies last year, and they probably have the best road ahead for a wild-card club: in Minnesota and then at the enigmatic Astros if they escape the Twins. If things finally click for the Jays, watch out.
Don’t sleep on
Los Angeles Dodgers
This is their 11th straight postseason and 10th NL West crown in 11 seasons. Yawn. Their rotation is beat up and they just don’t seem to be as tough as they’ve been in their previous three full seasons when they posted 111, 106, and 106 regular-season wins. And, yet these are still the Dodgers. They’ve won 100 games again and that thunderous offense is led by Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. Take the Dodgers for granted and see what happens.
Don’t sleep on, AL version
Tampa Bay Rays
Can it be anyone else? Although they lost eight of 13 to the Orioles this year, they probably match up as well as any AL club against the No. 1 seed. The Orioles and Rays mirror each other and although the Rays lost the season series, 5-8, the teams combined for a total score of 48-48 in those 13. And remember, the Rays started the season 32-11. They’ve dealt with major injuries and the disciplinary loss of shortstop Wander Franco, but the Rays have made their franchise out of being counted out.
Don’t really believe
Texas Rangers
The Rangers are a great story and can absolutely bash the baseball, scoring more runs than any other AL team. But among playoff clubs, only the Diamondbacks have a worse ERA. The division was there for the taking and they blew it. And while the offense can mash, the rotation is a MASH unit. I thought Jordan Montgomery was the best buy at the trade deadline, and he’s been great for them, but I don’t believe it is enough.
Don’t really believe, NL version
Arizona Diamondbacks
Another great story. Another team that doesn’t hit well – 14th of 30 in runs scored – and has a top-heavy pitching staff that drops off a cliff after its top two starters (20th team ERA out of 30). That still makes their first-round matchup against the Brewers intriguing. If Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly pitch like they are capable, they could steal two in the Wild Card round. After that, though, it would be a shock if the Diamondbacks kept the mojo going.
Dan Connolly is an MLB Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.