The Miami Marlins are going to be one of the worst MLB teams in 2025, part of a long-term plan that requires a multi-year rebuild. While the product on the field will largely be abysmal for at least the next two seasons, ownership won’t have to worry too much about how it will cover the Marlins payroll in 2025.
Unlike NFL revenue, a significant percentage of Major League Baseball’s revenue for each team comes from ticket sales, local sponsorships, local TV deals and merchandise sales. That’s particularly challenging for the worst teams in baseball, like the Marlins who are coming off a 100-loss season.
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- Miami Marlins attendance 2024 (ESPN): 13,425 per game (29th)
Because of the disparity in earnings between small-market teams and big-market clubs like the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB revenue sharing helps spread the wealth. Each club sends 31 percent of its local net revenue into a pool allocated across the league, with teams near the bottom in attendance and local revenue receiving a larger share of the pool. It’s going to make a big difference for Miami in 2025.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently touched on the unique situation Miami may find itself in next season. Current estimates are that the team will receive approximately $70 million from revenue sharing next season, which would cover more than 80 percent of the projected Marlins payroll in 2025.
- Miami Marlins payroll 2025 (FanGraphs): $66 million (last), $83 million luxury tax payroll (29th)
“The Marlins, like the A’s, are expected to be among the highest revenue-sharing recipients next year at roughly $70 million, if not more. Using that $70 million estimate, the Marlins’ luxury-tax payroll by the end of the season would need to be $105 million.”
Ken Rosenthal on the Miami Marlins payroll and revenue sharing in 2025
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While having a majority of the Marlins payroll next season covered by MLB revenue sharing is great for the team’s owners, it does come with potential ramifications. The potential consequences are something the Sacramento Athletics, who are in a similar situation as the Marlins, have worked desperately this offseason to avoid facing.
Why the Miami Marlins payroll could hurt the team
As Rosenthal and Evan Drellich wrote for The Athletic in early December, the MLB Players Union can file a grievance against any club that is spending less than 1.5 times the amount received from league revenue sharing. While a punishment isn’t automatic, MLB can discipline a team that fails to abide by the collective bargaining agreement if the MLBPA files a grievance. If Miami receives $70 million from revenue sharing, its 2026 luxury-tax payroll would need to be at least $105 million.
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That’s a big part of the reason why the Athletics have spent money this offseason, signing Luis Severino ($20 million AAV) and acquiring Jeffrey Springs ($10.5 million salary). The A’s aren’t finished either, with more moves coming this winter to in part avoid drawing the ire of the MLBPA.
That hasn’t been the approach taken by Miami. The Marlins payroll has already been slashed months out from the 2025 season, with Jesus Luzardo ($8.6 million projected salary) recently moved out. Entering 2025, Miami only has one active player earning more than $5 million next season (Sandy Alcantara, $17.3 million) and two of the highest salaries – Avisail Garcia ($12 million) and Giancarlo Stanton ($3 million) – belong to players no longer on the Marlins roster.
As Rosenthal notes, this situation and the lingering threat of a grievance filed by the MLBPA could threaten the Marlins’ consideration of trading Alcantara. Doing so next season would drop the team;’s luxury-tax number by nearly $4 million, which would further incentivize the MLBPA to take action. It leaves Marlins owner Bruce Sherman with the choice of actually spending money or facing penalties that could hurt the team’s future.
