After losing the 2021 AFC Championship Game to the Cincinnati Bengals, the Kansas City Chiefs organization essentially decided to rebuild its roster. At a time when an NFL franchise decided to completely tweak its philosophy around an all-time great quarterback, other NFL teams had an opportunity to take advantage.
It all started with the Tyreek Hill trade. Coming off consecutive 1,200-yard seasons, Kansas City opted to trade the All-Pro wide receiver for draft picks instead of extending his contract. Hill’s departure changed the Chiefs’ identity, with general manager Brett Veach deciding to build the team around Mahomes completely differently.
Related: AFC Championship Game preview, Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens
After reaching the AFC Championship in four consecutive seasons, Kansas City essentially opened itself up to be taken down by other NFL teams. Clubs would have a short-term window to exploit the Chiefs during a transition period, a golden opportunity to take down a giant.
Two years later, the Chiefs are two wins away from repeating as Super Bowl champions.
Related: Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator candidates
Revisiting the Kansas City Chiefs transition
Kansas City has always adapted. The Chiefs lost Super Bowl LV because Mahomes was playing behind a patchwork offensive line that was decimated by injuries. The front office immediately responded by drafting offensive linemen Trey Smith (226th overall pick) and center Creed Humphrey (63rd overall) in the 2021 NFL Draft, along with signing guard Joe Thuney.
The Chiefs now have one of the best interior offensive lines in the NFL. Losing in 2021 showed them where they needed to change. In the 2021 NFL playoffs, Kansas City allowed 36 points to the Buffalo Bills (Divisional Round) and 27 points in the AFC title loss to Cincinnati. Hill was then traded for draft picks, with Veach using those selections to overhaul his defense.
Related: Kansas City Chiefs draft picks 2024
One way to compare the Chiefs’ philosophy and style is by using Expected Points Added per Play (EPA), an advanced metric that measures how well a team performs compared to expectations on a snap-by-snap basis.
| Defensive EPA per Play | Offensive EPA per Play | Scoring Rate | Scoring Rate allowed | ||
| 2019 | 0.002 (18th) | 0.135 (2nd) | 48.8% (2nd) | 34.1% (11th) | |
| 2020 | 0.065 (19th) | 0.177 (3rd) | 47.9% (4th) | 36.1% (9th) | |
| 2021 | 0.038 (23rd) | 0.14 (2nd) | 48.2% (1st) | 37.3% (18th) |
This is the period when NFL teams could’ve taken advantage of the Chiefs’ retooling their roster. The Chiefs’ receiving corps was new and much worse than it was with Hill, all while the defense was overloaded with first- and second-year players. Clubs like the Bills, Philadelphia Eagles and Cincinnati Bengals had their chance.
It was an opportunity missed. The young Chiefs’ defense held Cincinnati to 20 points in the AFC Championship Game, sneaking into the Super Bowl with a 23-20 victory. Two weeks later, Mahomes (3 touchdowns, 44 rushing yards) and the Chiefs’ defense (fumble returned for a touchdown) won the Super Bowl.
Related: Top 3 storylines for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
| Defensive EPA per Play | Offensive EPA per Play | Scoring Rate | Scoring Rate allowed | |||
| 2022 | -0.001 (15th) | 0.179 (1st) | 46.4% (1st) | 35.9% (14th) | ||
| 2023 | -0.076 (6th) | 0.021 (11th) | 39.3% (10th) | 28.5% (2nd) |
There’s also important context with the Chiefs’ defensive statistics in 2022. Because Kansas City had one of the youngest defenses in the NFL that season, it took time for the inexperienced players to get comfortable. Once they did, the Chiefs’ defense ranked 10th in Defensive EPA per Play (-0.039) after Week 8.
Once again, the Chiefs provided the competition with a chance to take them down in 2023. While the defense has played at an elite level all season, Kansas City’s receiving corps took an alarming step back. Travis Kelce showed signs of decline and outside of Rashee Rice, the Chiefs’ receivers have been the worst in football.
| Player | Yards per Route Run | Contested Catch Rate | True Catch Rate | Route Win Rate |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0.74 (95th) | 20% (92nd) | 77.8% (96th) | 40.7% (94th) |
| Justin Watson | 1.39 (59th) | 50% (20th) | 75% (99th) | 42.1% (82nd) |
| Kadarius Toney | 1.19 (71st) | N/A | 79.4% (95th) | 47.9% (43rd) |
| Rashee Rice | 2.52 (10th) | 25% (87th) | 88.8% (52nd) | 53% (13th) |
After a 7-2 start to the season, Kansas City returned from the bye week and lost four of its next six games. With losses to the Eagles, Bills, Green Bay Packers and Las Vegas Raiders, it appeared the Chiefs’ offense would drag this team down. They finished 11-6 with an AFC West title, but entered the NFL playoffs as underdogs.
- Kansas City Chiefs offense (Weeks 8-18): 219 pass ypg, 82.3 QB rating, 39.8% third-down conversion rate, -0.048 EPA per Play (21st), 42% Success rate (18th)
In the AFC Wild Card Game, the Chiefs rode a shutdown defense and dominant performances from Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice to a 26-7 victory over the Miami Dolphins. One week later, Mahomes bested Josh Allen once again and this time ousted the Bills in front of their home fans.
- Kansas City Chiefs cap space by year: $28.5 million in 2024, $97 million in 2025
Mahomes is now in his sixth consecutive AFC Championship Game, on the doorstep of punching his ticket to a fourth Super Bowl appearance. The rest of the NFL had their chance to take down the league’s newest dynasty during a transition year. The failed opportunity will likely haunt them for years.
