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NFL analyst projects the historic price of Joe Burrow contract extension for Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow will become one of the highest-paid NFL players ever in the future. While there is no exact timetable for when the emerging star and face of the Bengals’ franchise signs an extension, the cost will be close to unprecedented.

Burrow, the 2021 NFL Comeback Player of the Year, is coming off his first Pro Bowl selection. The 26-year-old quarterback coming off his second consecutive season with 34-plus touchdown passes and a 100-plus quarterback rating.

  • Joe Burrow stats (2022): 100.8 QB rating, 35-12 TD-INT, 68.3% completion rate, 4,475 passing yards, 5.8% touchdown rate, 12-4 record, 279.7 pass ypg

Related: Why Joe Burrow deserves to be the highest-paid player in NFL

Through his first three seasons, Burrow has taken Cincinnati to two AFC Championship Games and won more playoff games than any quarterback in franchise history. He is also currently the all-time leader in completion rate (68.2 percent) among players with at least 1,500 attempts.

The Bengals already disclosed they are engaged in negotiations with Burrow’s representatives on a potential extension. Amid circulating reports on what it will cost, there is now a new projection from Pro Football Focus.

Related: Former NFL star says Joe Burrow is better than Patrick Mahomes

Brad Spielberger is PFF’s salary cap analyst and an expert on NFL contracts. In a piece projecting the costs of contract extension for the 2020 quarterback class, the analyst believes an extension could come in at four years for $214 million, including $185 million guaranteed.

“Because of Cincinnati’s resistance to guaranteeing money beyond the first year of a contract, Burrow should also push to get a larger signing bonus than Dak Prescott’s record $66 million figure. With Burrow’s fifth-year option valued at $29.5 million, he’s scheduled to earn $35.045 million over the next two years before the extension years kick in.”

PFF’s Brad Spielberger on Joe Burrow’s contract situation with the Cincinnati Bengals

It would be a much shorter deal than the extensions Patrick Mahomes (10 years) and Josh Allen (six years) signed with their respective clubs. However, it would still make Burrow one of the highest-paid NFL quarterbacks.

Related: Joe Burrow contract extension likely to be largest in NFL history

The $185 million in total guarantees would be the second-most in NFL history behind only Deshaun Watson ($230 million). When factoring in the $29.5 million fifth-year team option for the 2024 season, the total value of Spielberger’s projected extension would be $243.5 million over five seasons (2024-28).

Not only would Burrow receive one of the highest guarantees ever, but the $48.7 million average annual value would also make him the third-highest-paid quarterback in football. If only accounting for the four-year extension, it would create a $53.5 million AAV over the life of the new contract, making Burrow the highest-paid player in football.

Just as importantly, it would set a new benchmark for young quarterbacks like Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson to target in contract negotiations.

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