If the NFL regular season ended today, the Indianapolis Colts would garner the seventh and final spot in the AFC playoffs.
According the NFL’s playoff probabilities, the Colts (8-6) currently have a better-than-average chance of making the playoffs, at 56 percent, and that number would improve to 72 percent with two weeks to go if they beat the Atlanta Falcons on the road on Sunday.
If the Indianapolis Colts are able to lock up a playoff berth for the first time since 2020, it might not happen until the final week of the regular season.
Yet somehow, someway, the Indianapolis Colts could end the regular season as the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
What?
Yes, it’s mathematically possible for the Colts to rise as high as No. 1, even though they have a less-than-one percent chance of doing so. But how?
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The Indianapolis Colts’ path to No. 1
The Baltimore Ravens currently have the No. 1 seed in the AFC. According to the NFL’s Next Gen stats, they have a 65-percent chance of retaining it and having homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
But there are four other teams that still have No. 1 aspirations — the Miami Dolphins, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Cleveland Browns, and yes, the Indianapolis Colts.
The Dolphins (10-4) have a 24-percent chance, followed by the 9-5 Chiefs (9 percent), the 9-5 Browns (2 percent), and the Colts.
For the Colts to climb over the other teams and inexplicably wrest the No. 1 seed away, the following would need to happen.
- The Colts would need to win their final three games, beating the Falcons and then the Las Vegas Raiders and the Houston Texans at home.
- The Ravens would need to lose their final three games at San Francisco, and then at home against Miami and Pittsburgh.
- The Dolphins, Chiefs and Browns would need to lose two of their final three games. But Miami’s one win must come against Baltimore in Week 17.
If those scenarios were to play out as outlined above, the Colts would have a better conference record than Baltimore and a better record in common games than Miami, and a better record overall than both Kansas City and Cleveland.
That would leave the Indianapolis Colts as the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
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Don’t count the Indianapolis Colts out
The Indianapolis Colts are playing their best football, winning five of their past six games with Gardner Minshew at quarterback. The Colts have already doubled their win total from a year ago under first-year head coach Shane Steichen, who is in the running for the NFL Coach of the Year award.
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It’s conceivable that the Colts will do their part, given the way they are playing and their favorable schedule over the final three weeks.
But could the Indianapolis Colts really buck their remote odds and rise to No. 1? Stranger things have happened. And in the spirit of the season, the Colts’ chances are at least more believable than Santa Claus.