Andy Newton
Ahead of Saturday’s big Grade 1 contest at Churchill Downs we pick out three Stephen Foster Stakes trends and stats that can hopefully help find the winner of the $2m contest.
A classy field of seven will head to post for the 2026 Stephen Foster Stakes on Saturday June 27, with the Bill Mott-trained Sovereignty, who landed the 2025 Kentucky Derby, heading the betting market.
Mott is currently the joint winning-most barn in the Stephen Foster Stakes with two wins, so a victory for the Junior Alvarado-ridden Sovereignty will see the Louisville handler topping the all-time wins table outright.
In addition to Sovereignty, Bill Mott also runs Baeza in Saturday’s race – meaning he’s responsible for 29% of the seven entries.
Baeza was third to his stablemate in the 2025 Derby and has since landed the Pennsylvania Derby at Parx.
The Mott pair will face Willy D’s, Forged Steel and Navajo Warrior.
However, if the betting is to be believed, their main threats will come from White Abarrio, who slammed Sovereignty in the Oaklawn Handicap back in April, and Dubai World Cup winner Magnitude for trainer Steve Asmussen.
All seven runners will be running for a share of the $2m Stephen Foster Stakes purse.
And, as promised, we’ve got THREE key Stephen Foster Stakes stats and trends to take into the race – which can hopefully help you bag the winner.
80% Of The Last 10 Winners Came Between Gates 2-6
When looking back over the last 10 runnings of the Stephen Foster Stakes, the big post position take-out is that horses between gates 2-6 have done best.
12 months ago, the winner Mindframe came out of gate 2, while the two winners before him – Kingsbarns and West Will Power – both hailed from stalls 6.
Only Maxfield (2021) and Pavel (2018) won from wide draws in 8 and 9, but with only seven runners in 2026, then these stalls are not even in play.
Meaning, if this Stephen Foster Stakes stat continues into 2026 – these are the horses to focus on.
- White Abarrio (2)
- Sovereignty (3)
- Baeza (4)
- Magnitude (5)
- Forged Steel (6)
No Winner From Gate 1 In Last 10 Years
The other standout Stephen Foster Stakes trends regarding the post positions is we’ve not had a winner from Gate 1 in the last 10 runnings.
With the last winner from stall 1 the mighty Curlin in 2008.
Bad news if you like this year’s gate 1 horse – Willy D’s.
Stephen Foster Stakes Winners (last 10) and Post Positions
- 2025 – Mindframe (2)
- 2024 – Kingsbarns (6)
- 2023 – West Will Power (6)
- 2022 – Olympiad (3)
- 2021 – Maxfield (8)
- 2020 – Tom’s D’Etat (5)
- 2019 – Seeking The Soul (4)
- 2018 – Pavel (9)
- 2017 – Gun Runner (3)
- 2016 – Bradester (2)
What Has Been The Best Stephen Foster Stakes Winning Age?
We can hopefully whittle down the 2026 runners a bit more based on looking for the best age.
The Stephen Foster is open to horses aged 3+, but it’s rare horses that young race in it.
This is backed up with no winner of the race – which was first run in 1982 – being aged 3.
However, it’s been the 4yolds that have held sway in recent times – with 4 of the last last 5 winning – and 7 of the last 11.
While a massive 11 of the last 12 winners (92%) were aged either 4 or 6.
Plus, since 1989 – the has only ever been ONE winner aged 7 (Tom’s d’Etat in 2020), which is a feat the veteran White Abarrio will be trying to match.
There are NO 6yolds this year – so history tells us to keep our search to just the 4yolds.
- Sovereignty
- Baeza
- Magnitude
- Forged Steel
What About The Stephen Foster Stakes Favorites Record?
Like a lot of horse races the betting market can often be a great guide towards the chances of each runner.
Of, course the lower the odds, then the more fancied this runner is by the sportsbooks.
And the Stephen Foster Stakes has in recent years been a good race for favorite backers with 60% of the last 10 market leaders winning.
Last year (2025) we saw another favorite land in Mindframe, while FIVE of the last six horses topping the betting have also won.
Which could be seen as another top pointer toward the expected 2026 Stephen Foster Stakes favorite Sovereignty.
Conclusion: Which Horse Ticks The Most Stephen Foster Stakes Trends?
So, if we put our three key race stats (post position, age and favorite) into the melting pot – which horse ticks the most trends?
Step forward – Horse of the Year – SOVEREIGNTY.
This Bill Mott-trained 4yold gets a thumbs up for all THREE of our stats – with gate 3 a plus as well as his position at the head of the market.
You can see Sovereignty in his pre-race Churchill Downs workout on Wednesday June 24.
Stephen Foster Stakes Race Information 2026
📅 Date: Saturday 27th June 2026
⌚ Time: 6:03pm ET
🏇 Racecourse: Churchill Downs
🔄 Trip: 1 1/8 miles
💷 Winner: $1m ($2m purse)
📺 TV: FanDuel TV and NBC
Stephen Foster Stakes Runners 2026
| Post Position | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Odds |
| 1 | Willy D’s | Mike Maker | Luis Saez | 20/1 |
| 2 | White Abarrio | Saffie A. Joseph Jr. | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 3/1 |
| 3 | Sovereignty | Bill Mott | Junior Alvarado | 6/5 |
| 4 | Baeza | Bill Mott | Flavien Prat | 6/1 |
| 5 | Magnitude | Steve Asmussen | Jose Ortiz | 7/2 |
| 6 | Forged Steel | Saffie A. Joseph Jr. | John Velazquez | 12/1 |
| 7 | Navajo Warrior | Saffie A. Joseph Jr. | Tyler Gaffalione | 15/1 |
Note: Stephen Foster Stakes betting odds are subject to change
