Scott Gulbransen
Lewis Hamilton has won at Spa-Francorchamps six times — more than any driver on the current grid. He arrives at this weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix in a Ferrari that just beat Mercedes at Silverstone, a track where his own team predicted a deficit of half a second or worse. That combination is enough to move Ferrari to the top of the podium picture, even with Mercedes leading both championships.
Here’s how we see Sunday shaking out.
Why Ferrari is the Pick at Belgian Grand Prix
Ferrari expected to get hammered at Silverstone. The internal projection heading into the weekend had the team five or six tenths off Mercedes because of how much energy the 2026 cars burn at high-speed circuits. Instead, Charles Leclerc won the race. Lewis Hamilton came home third behind George Russell, giving Ferrari its first double podium of the season at a track that was supposed to expose the car’s biggest weakness.
Leclerc isn’t ready to call it a trend.
“I think it’s too early to say,” Leclerc said after Silverstone. “I think this weekend was a particularly big surprise for the whole team. Not the win, just the overall performance. I mean, we were a lot faster than what we thought, and I think as much as we need to analyze when things are going a lot worse than expected, we also need to analyze when things go a lot better than expected.”
Fair enough. But his own read on Spa gives the game away.
“We were expecting a very difficult weekend here in Silverstone. I think prior to this weekend, we were expecting even more of a difficult weekend in Spa,” Leclerc said. “Considering we obviously won, maybe we are a bit closer than what we initially thought.”
Spa punishes the same energy weaknesses Silverstone does. Ferrari just proved those weaknesses are smaller than anyone realized, and the team learned it the same way everyone else did, by watching Leclerc take the checkered flag.
The Mercedes Problem is Reliability, Not Pace
Nobody is arguing Mercedes has lost its edge. The team has seven wins in nine races and locks out the top two spots in the standings. On raw pace, Kimi Antonelli and Russell should both be in the podium fight.
The issue is what keeps happening on Sundays. Antonelli has suffered mechanical problems in two of the past three races, including the Silverstone failure that dropped him from the lead battle to 16th and cut his championship advantage from 66 points to 25. At Silverstone, it was a broken wheel shield that ended his charge at Leclerc. That’s two different failures, which is worse news than one recurring problem.
One Mercedes probably makes the podium. Betting on both finishing clean right now is a harder sell.
Don’t Expect Red Bull to Crash the Party
Max Verstappen‘s Spa record would normally demand a mention here. Not this year. Red Bull team boss Laurent Mekies has already conceded the track profile works against his car. :
“On tracks where energy limitations are strong, we seem to be struggling more compared to the competition,” Mekies said after Silverstone. “And in that respect, I’m afraid Spa is probably in that category as well.”
The Weather Wild Card
Friday practice carries the highest rain risk of the weekend, with forecasts putting the chance of showers around 30 percent before drier air moves in for qualifying and the race.
Race day looks cool, with highs near 65 degrees Fahrenheit and a lower but real chance of localized rain. Spa’s microclimate has embarrassed forecasts before and a wet race would favor Hamilton, who won here in the rain in some of the most memorable drives of his career. Six Spa wins buy a lot of benefit of the doubt if the track turns changeable.
The 2026 Belgian Grand Prix Prediction
P1: Lewis Hamilton
Nobody on this grid knows Spa better, and he’s sitting in a car that keeps outrunning its own simulations. He’s 32 points behind Antonelli, and a win here makes the title fight real.
P2: Charles Leclerc
Back-to-back wins is a big ask, but the SF-26 has won two of the past three races and Leclerc says he’s found the feeling in the car again.
P3: George Russell
One Mercedes gets home clean, and Russell has been the steadier of the two lately. If Antonelli’s car holds together, he’s the one applying pressure on the Ferraris instead.
Related: Verstappen, Hamilton Warn Formula 1’s Battery Problem Will Resurface at Silverstone
Mercedes drivers Kimi Antonelli and George Russell lead the betting on season form, but Lewis Hamilton’s six Spa wins and Ferrari’s Silverstone victory make Ferrari a serious threat.
Mercedes drivers Kimi Antonelli and George Russell lead the betting on season form, but Lewis Hamilton’s six Spa wins and Ferrari’s Silverstone victory make Ferrari a serious threat.
Friday practice carries the highest rain risk of the weekend at around 30 percent. Qualifying looks dry, and race day carries a smaller chance of localized showers with cooler temperatures.
Apple TV holds the exclusive U.S. broadcast rights for the 2026 Formula 1 season. The race starts at 9 a.m. Eastern on Sunday, July 19.
