The Indiana Pacers season is less than a week away from starting and fans are excited to see this team and their top pick in the 2022 NBA draft in action. Some are hopeful that they will be in the playoffs. While others are looking forward to having a high pick in the 2023 NBA draft.
The latter’s hopes aren’t rooted in the belief that this team is bad. Rather, the Pacers are just young and young teams don’t win enough to make it into the playoffs.
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The Pacers’ selection at sixth overall is the highest they’ve had since 1988 when they selected Rik Smits second overall. This year’s top pick, Bennedict Mathurin, has some fans drooling over him. With that in mind, here are three expectations for Mathurin’s rookie season.
Bennedict Mathurin has the potential to make others better
As previously mentioned, Mathurin is the team’s highest draft pick in over a decade. He also comes into the NBA a little more game-ready than most previous lottery selections.
During the scouting process, Mathurin drew comparisons to Quentin Richardson and Jason Richardson. Quite the range there in comparisons.
- Quentin Richardson stats (career): 39.7% FG, 35.5% 3-point, 71.8% FT, 10pts, 4.7 rebs, 1.5 asts & 0.8 stls
- Jason Richardson stats (career): 43.8% FG, 37% 3-point, 70.7% FT, 17pts, 5 rebs, 2.7 asts, & 1.2 stls
Pacers fans will be hoping that Mathurin’s floor is that of Jason Richardson and that his ceiling is higher. One thing that he can do and would set him apart from these two guys, is making the players around him better. This most likely won’t happen in his rookie season. However, there could be glimpses of it.
Fixing weaknesses will be key for Indiana Pacers’ top pick this season
One way for him to make the other player around him better is by being so good offensively that the opponent is more concerned with him than guarding their own guy. In order for this to happen, he’ll need to eliminate two of his biggest weaknesses. The first is ball handling. This isn’t a true weakness as most rookies have this listed as a weakness. For Mathurin, it’s more about him just being better and realizing that guys at this level are much better at picking his pocket.
The second is creating offense off the dribble. He’s got a good isolation game but it can be better. Also, something he needs to add to this part of his game is keeping an eye out for a pass. In college, he was focused on scoring because that’s what was asked of him. In the NBA the defenses and defenders are much better. Some of his drives need to be ones that set up his teammates.
Again, this is something that is going to take time. Especially, if the team is going to have him coming off the bench. As of what we’ve seen so far, his main job is to be the scoring punch off the bench. During this preseason he is the team’s leading scorer.
- 22.3 min, 20.3pts, 52.7%FG, 22.2% 3-point, 88.9% FT, 3.3 reb, 0.7ast, 0.7 stl, and 0 blk
Teams will eventually game plan to stop him and that’s when his ability to read the defense and pass the ball either to get the assist or the hockey assist, will come into play. And despite what he’s shown so far, he can be a better passer.
Mathurin will eventually earn a starting spot
If he can incrementally improve as the season progresses, then he will earn a spot in the starting lineup. Now, many are predicting that he won’t move into the starting lineup until after Buddy Hield is traded away. That is certainly the most likely bet.
However, I think Mathurin’s play will have everyone calling for him to be a starter before Hield is traded. Keep in mind, Mathurin and Keegan Murray are the only two players the dramatically improved their games from their freshman year to their sophomore year in college. This improvement leads them both becoming lottery picks.
So with all of this information, how many games will Mathurin start in his rookie season? Considering the Pacers’ last two lottery picks, Myles Turner and Chris Duarte started over one-third of their rookie games (30 for Turner and 39 for Duarte), it’s fair to make this the starting point. For those not good with math, 27.3 is one-third of 82 games.
I’m going to go bold and say that Mathurin starts 40-41 games this season. Once Hield is traded, Mathurin will move into the starting lineup forever. However, prior to that happening, I expect Hield to get “load management” days. This will help ensure his health and subsequent trade value. And if we’re starting at 27 then Hield would only need to get at least 14 load management days in prior to the trade deadline in order to reach 40 games. This is more than feasible.
The trio of Tyrese Haliburton, Duarte, and Mathurin is going to be the young core around which the Indiana Pacers build around. Haliburton will be the catalyst of the offense and Duarte will support him and provide a scoring punch. However, Mathurin is going to be the main star and the one who most fans wear his jersey. Mathurin, when it’s all said and done, will be right up there with Uncle Reggie Miller when it comes to love and admiration from this fan base.