Dansby Swanson played an integral role in the Atlanta Braves success this past season, meaning his first appearance in the All-Star Game and winning the Gold Glove Award. Coming off a career-best season, the Georgia native might be looking for a new home.
Swanson, age 28, enjoyed a contract-year breakout. He posted his highest batting average (.277) since his rookie season and set career-highs in steals (18), RBI (96), w RC+ (116) and FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement.
- Dansby Swanson stats (2022): .277/.329/.447, 25 home runs, .776 OPS, 6.4 fWAR
Atlanta knew it was taking a risk by not signing Swanson to a contract extension before the season. While the club held out hope that it would eventually agree to terms on a multi-year contract with the star shortstop, it appears that is now unlikely to happen.
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Braves’ beat writer David O’Brien recently provided insight on Swanson’s situation in free agency. While there is still a chance the All-Star shortstop remains in Atlanta, the odds are fading quickly.
“I’m probably less than 50-50 now that he’s coming back, because I think if he was they would have done it [already]….I think they’re going to wait to see what the market [is], if he comes back to where they’re comfortable paying him, but I don’t think Dansby’s going to. I think his market’s a lot bigger than Freddie’s was …. He probably priced himself out of Atlanta with the season he had.”
David O’Brien of The Athletic on likelihood of Dansby Swanson re-signing with Atlanta Braves
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Swanson’s contract demands pushing him out of the Braves’ price range might come as a surprise to some. Liberty Media, which owns the club, reported more than $526 million in revenue generated from baseball sources after the 2021 season and the financial report in August revealed double-digit growth in terms of profit.
This also comes at a time when a majority of the Braves’ core is already signed to long-term extensions, with contract values that easily fit into the Braves payroll. While there are alternatives to Swanson, like Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa, O’Brien believes both are also far out of Atlanta’s price range.
How the Atlanta Braves will replace Dansby Swanson
If Swanson doesn’t return to Georgia, Atlanta likely focuses on internal candidates to fill the void at shortstop. Any player who slides into the starting lineup would be an immediate downgrade compared to Swanson, but the hope would be for a Houston Astros’ situation to unfold.
“I think they’re comfortable enough that they’ll go with [Vaughn Grissom] and Orlando Arcia [at shortstop]. I probably think they’re going to make a move elsewhere. People I think overestimated how much money the Braves would spend this offseason …. I don’t think they’re going to spend a whole lot of money.”
David O’Brien on Atlanta Braves’ plans at shortstop
The Astros allowed Correa to leave in free agency last winter because of their confidence in Jeremy Pena. While Pena wasn’t viewed as one of the best prospects in MLB at the time, he quickly made an impact in the majors. After an outstanding rookie season, Pena won the Gold Glove Award at shortstop along with ALCS and World Series MVP honors.
Vaughn Grissom would be the likeliest candidate to have that level of impact in 2023. Entering his age-22 season, Grissom slashed .291/.353/.440 with a 121 wRC+ across 156 plate appearances in the majors this season.
Grissom, an 11th-round pick in 2019, would offer more upside than Orlando Arcia. He also proved that he no longer needs seasoning in the minor leagues after posting a .300-plus batting average at every level.