Week 16 College Football Rankings: Evaluating top 25 teams before the College Football Playoff

The Missouri Tigers finished the season 9-3, with all three losses coming against ranked opponents. Now things get interesting for the program. Quarterback Brady Cook, running back Nate Noel and wide receiver Luther Burden III are all leaving the program. It’ll be an uphill climb for Mizzou to be a top-25 program next season.

What a difference a year can make for a program. The Syracuse Orange fired Dino Babers in November 2023, finally bringing much-needed change to the program. Syracuse’s coaching search landed on Georgia Bulldogs defensive backs coach Fran Brown. He instantly turned the Orange into a 9-3 team, the program’s first nine-win season since 2018, including wins over Miami, UNLV and Georgia Tech. Pair that success with the 35th-ranked recruiting class in the country and it’s clear Brown’s work in year one should be just the start of things to come.

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It proved to be a very successful season for the Illinois Fighting Illini. While they got blown out against the best teams in college football – losing to Penn State and Oregon – Bret Bielema’s team largely handled its business against the rest of the conference and opponents. Illinois started the season hot with a 4-0 record, including wins over then-ranked Kansas and Nebraska. After a rough stretch with three losses in five games – including a 25-17 home loss to Minnesota, the Fighting Illini responded with a three-game win streak. While there was nothing ever particularly great to watch from Illinois, this is the program’s first nine-win season since 2007.

The Mountain West Championship Game certainly didn’t go how the UNLV Rebels hoped, but this was a remarkable season for this team. Barry Odom turned a five-win team from the previous regime into a 9-5 program in his first year at the helm in 2023. This season, even with his starting quarterback bailing on the team in September, Odom still coached his way to UNLV’s second 10-win season in program history. The buzz around Odom with the college football coaching carousel is undeniable, he has the highest winning percentage (.704) in Rebels’ history. Even if UNLV loses him, the school deserves praise for making an excellent hire and hopefully they either do it again or keep Odom.

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The Big 12 Championship Game went about as poorly for the Iowa State Cyclones as it could have. That shouldn’t take away from this great 10-win season. What makes double-digit victories even more impressive is the fact that it came with sophomores at quarterback (Rocco Becht, running back Carson Hansen) and tight end (Gabe Burkle). The future is bright for the Cyclones with head coach Matt Campbell and they could be a lot higher in the college football rankings next season.

The Memphis Tigers struck gold with head coach Ryan Silverfield. Mike Norvell’s successor has now done what even his predecessor never accomplished, winning double-digit games in consecutive seasons. The Tigers’ offense provided former South Carolina running back Mario Anderson Jr. with the perfect home, as he erupted for 1,582 scrimmage yards and 19 total touchdowns after putting up 860 scrimmage yards last season at South Carolina. Facing West Virginia (6-6) in the Frisco Bowl on Dec. 17, Satterfield has a great shot at delivering Memphis only its second season with 11-plus wins ever.

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When the 2024 college football season kicked off, many believed BYU Cougars coach Kalani Sitake was on the hot seat. So, he responded with his third season with double-digit wins since 2020. The Cougars certainly only have themselves to blame for not making it to the Big 12 Championship Game, with the stunning 17-13 loss to Kansas on Nov. 16 – 2 turnovers lost and 3-for-10 on third down – costing them. Still, BYU was undefeated entering the middle of November and that in itself is an accomplishment given how quickly most undefeated teams went down this year.

With Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders headed to the NFL, there’s certainly a very real chance we don’t see the Colorado Buffaloes experience this level of success for another decade-plus. Colorado (9-3) arguably could’ve been even better this season, potentially making the College Football Playoff had Hunter not suffered a first-half shoulder injury in the 31-28 loss to Kansas State on Oct. 12. Still, kudos to Deion Sanders for helping Colorado win more games this season as it did in three seasons (eight) under Karl Dorrell. Sanders earned the raise and contract extension that are coming.

The biggest riser in our Week 16 college football rankings is the Army Black Knights. They entered Friday as underdogs in the AAC Championship Game against Tulane and, with a national audience watching, quarterback Bryson Daily proved why he was one of the most underrated players in college football this year. Daily accounted for Army’s first four touchdowns, leading the team to a 28-7 lead over Tulane (9-4) early in the third quarter. The Black Knights – 338 rushing yards and 34 minutes of possession time – controlled this one throughout. Really, that’s what Army (11-1) did every game this season except against Notre Dame.

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Putting all of Lane Kiffin’s complaints about Ole Miss not making the College Football Playoff to the side, this is where the Rebels belong. Ole Miss had plenty of chances this season to prove it deserves a playoff spot. Instead, Kiffin’s offense fell flat in losses to Kentucky (17 points and 1-for-10 on third downs) and Florida (17 points, 3 turnovers and 3-for-14 on third downs). Kiffin bought the ingredients for the Ole Miss offense and he made the recipe. The results fall squarely on him.

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Our Week 16 college football rankings aren’t going to reward the Alabama Crimson Tide with a higher spot like the CFP committee. There are certainly resume-strengthening wins this season – including victories over Georgian and South Carolina – but the Crimson Tide also lost by three touchdowns to Oklahoma (2-6 in SEC) and Vanderbilt (3-5 in SEC). Alabama also narrowly beat the Gamecocks before they turned their season around. This just isn’t a playoff-caliber resume.

Based on head-to-head, the Alabama Crimson Tide deserves to be ahead of the South Carolina Gamecocks in our college football rankings. However, we give the edge to South Carolina because of how it handled the second half of the season. After losing 27-25 at Alabama, the Gamecocks responded with a six-game win streak, including victories over two teams the Crimson Tide lost to O(Oklahoma and Vanderbilt) along with wins over three ranked opponents (Texas A&M, Missouri and Clemson). It might not be good enough for South Carolina to make the College Football Playoff, but the emergence of quarterback LaNorris Sellers makes the Gamecocks a must-watch team in 2025.

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The first quarter was the undoing for the SMU Mustangs. Putting themselves in a 21-7 hole, later turning into a 17-point game at halftime, created desperation. Credit to the Mustangs and quarterback Kevin Jennings who rallied, turning a 17-point deficit entering the fourth quarter into a tie game with 16 seconds left. Unfortunately, it still ended in heartbreak with a long kickoff return setting up the game-winning 56-yard field goal. SMU might deserve a playoff spot, but they lost their chance at an automatic ticket and it’s difficult to see the committee putting the Mustangs in over Alabama.

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There will be endless debate regarding whether or not a three-loss Clemson team deserves to be in the College Football Playoff. What matters is Cade Klubnik and Dabo Swinney got an opportunity to punch their ticket and they delivered. Klubnik had a historic first half in the ACC Championship Game and, with the help of Clemson’s defense, dominated SMU. The resume isn’t particularly impressive, but the Tigers met the CFP’s automatic qualifications. Let the playoffs determine if they are worthy.

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Cam Ward deserves to be in the College Football Playoff, the Miami Hurricanes defense is the reason he won’t be. Ward finished the season with the second-most passing yards and he led the nation in ESPN QBR (88.0), at times single-handedly carrying Miami to wins. Unfortunately, a Hurricanes defense that allowed 70 points and 915 total yards in two losses ensured that won’t happen. Maybe the 13th-ranked recruiting class will help, but we tend to believe Ward’s departure will put Mario Cristobal back on the hot seat in 2025.

The Indiana Hoosiers took full advantage of the schedule they were given this year. What matters is that in his first season at the helm, head coach Curt Cignetti won more games this season than Tom Allen did in his final three (9-27). Cignetti also oversaw senior quarterback Kurtis Rourke turn relative success with the Ohio Bobcats (11-5 TD-INT, 63.5% completion rate and 132.5 QB rating) into a breakout year (27-4 TD-INT, 70.4% completion rate and 181.4 QBR). Indiana earned its playoff spot, Cignetti deserved his contract extension and the Hoosiers secured another win with the majority of their coaching staff returning in 2025.

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The Arizona State Sun Devils are one of the best stories in college football this season. After Herm Edwards and Antonio Pierce left this football program amid scandal, with NCAA violations and a 3-9 season to go with it. Dillingham needed the 2023 campaign (3-9) just to clean things up. A year later, freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt was one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12, running back Cam Skattebo delivered the first season with 2,000 scrimmage yards in program history and the Sun Devils are Big 12 Champions after crushing Iowa State 45-19 on Saturday. Arizona State might not hang around long in the College Football Playoff, but what matters is they made it and Dillingham is just getting started at his alma mater.

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Maybe the Michigan Wolverines are just Ryan Day’s kryptonite. The Ohio State Buckeyes are 32-6 in their last three seasons under Day, with a majority of those losses coming against the Wolverines. On the other hand, ahead of a likely matchup against the Tennessee Volunteers, we’re about to find out if Day’s issues are just against physical teams with the talent in the trenches to beat Ohio State. Ultimately, Day’s job security might come down to whether or not the Buckeyes are a one-and-done team. If Day is fired, though, Ohio State faces an uphill climb to find an elite coach in this cycle.

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It’s the same story for James Franklin. The Penn State Nittany Lions pile up the wins in the Big Ten Conference, only to get dismantled against elite competition. Saturday’s Big Ten Championship Game loss to the No. 1 Oregon Ducks dropped Franklin’s record to 3-18 against top-10 ranked teams. The Nittany Lions will still make the CFP, but the history under Franklin suggests it will be a short stay.

Quinn Ewers cost the Texas Longhorns two games this season and he shouldn’t be the starting quarterback in the College Football Playoff. The Longhorns’ defense played well enough to win the SEC Championship Game and Texas’ receivers made big plays downfield. Yet time and time again in critical spots, Ewers failed to deliver when the Longhorns needed a touchdown.

The inexplicable loss to Arkansas (19-14) is the only reason the Tennessee Volunteers won’t be hosting a first-round College Football Playoff game. Still, this team is at least capable of making a run. Defensively, Tennessee finished the season ranked fourth in scoring defense (13.9 PPG allowed) and running back Dylan Sampson leads an offense that averaged 232 rushing yards per game and 37.3 points per game. How far Tennessee advances in the CFP will come down to how inexperienced freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava looks on the big stage and the Volunteers’ offensive line will also play a big role in that. If Iamaleava is at his best, Tennessee can make a deep run.

Ashton Jeanty carried the Boise State Broncos to a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. Our Heisman Trophy pick continued historic dominance during conference championship weekend, delivering another 200-yard rushing performance in a victory. It adds another ranked win to the Broncos’ resume, too. We’ll also remind everyone that Boise State went to Eugene back in September and only lost by three points against the undefeated Oregon Ducks.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish kept themselves from experiencing an undefeated regular season all thanks to that loss to Northern Illinois (15-14) that remains baffling months later. Marcus Freeman’s program certainly deserves credit for how it responded to that loss, delivering wins over three then-ranked opponents (Louisville, Navy and Army) and this team also beat Texas A&M in the season-opener. However, the Fighting Irish enter the College Football Playoff outside the top two in our college football rankings because they haven’t faced one of the best college football teams in 2024.

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At this point, you have to give credit to Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs. they’ve played some sloppy football this season and losing Carson Beck to injury on the final play of the first half could’ve derailed their SEC title hopes. Instead, running back Trevor Etienne (2 second-half touchdowns) put the Bulldogs’ offense on his back and Georgia’s defense played outstanding. It’s been an up-and-down year for the Dawgs, but they earned this SEC crown.

The Oregon Ducks left no doubt about who is the best team in college football. Dillon Gabriel shined in the first half, the Ducks looked like a well-coached team and it all cam together in the Big Ten Championship Game. Anything could happen in the College Football Playoff, but the only undefeated team in college football should be a strong favorite to win it all.