The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings are out with conference championship weekend set to determine the final playoff seedings and which teams make it in. With so much at stake on Friday and Saturday, we’ve got Conference Championship Games predictions for every matchup on the slate. Let’s dive into our projections for the nine games on the conference championship weekend schedule.
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Jacksonville State 24, Western Kentucky 20
Leading off the conference championship weekend schedule is a rematch between teams that faced off just a week ago. Playing at home, Western Kentucky took down Jacksonville State 19-17, thanks to a game-winning field goal. The Hilltoppers dominated time of possession (36:27 to 23:33) and outgained the Gamecocks offense’ by nearly 100 yards while limiting Jacksonville State to going 2-for-13 on third-down attempts. That level of domination is unlikely to happen again, especially with Jacksonville State hosting the Conference USA Championship Game. We’ve got the Gamecocks winning this in the fourth quarter, led by a strong performance on the ground.
Boise State Broncos 28, UNLV Rebels 24
Only one opponent this season held Boise State Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty under 130 rushing yards with a yards-per-carry average under 4.0 this season, that was the UNVL Rebels. In that last meeting at UNLV, the Rebels lost the turnover battle and had 20 more penalty yards than Boise State but only lost by 5 on Jeanty’s fourth-quarter touchdown. UNLV absolutely stands a chance in the Mountain West Championship Game, but it also seems highly unlikely that a Broncos’ offense that posted the seventh-highest conversion rate (49.7 percent) will go 3-for-15 on third-down attempts again. Jeanty might not do enough to win the Heisman Trophy, but the man carrying the Broncos’ offense this season will punch Boise State’s ticket to the College Football Playoff with an MWC title.
Tulane Green Wave 24, Army Black Knights 17
Get ready to see a lot of running the football in this Friday night matchup. Army finished the season with the highest rate of rushing plays (85.63 percent) in college football and Tulane finished with the eighth-highest rushing rate (63.36 percent). Green Wave running back Makhi Hughes (1,306 yards on 243 carries) will be the focal point in this one as will Army’s dual-threat quarterback Bryson Daily (2,348 rushing yards and 25 rushing touchdowns). Ultimately, Tulane is more well-tested in these games, but the Black Knights’ run defense and Daily’s rushing ability will keep it tight.
Arizona State Sun Devils 27, Iowa State Cyclones 21
This is one of our favorite matchups on college football’s conference championship weekend. Arizona State and Iowa State are both very well-coached teams. The Sun Devils are banged up coming into the Big 12 Championship Game with No. 1 receiver Jordyn Tyson out with an injury. It makes life a little easier for an Iowa State team that ranked 18th in scoring defense (19.6 PPG allowed) during the regular season. However, Cyclones’ quarterback Rocco Becht – an interception in seven different games this year – will provide Arizona State’s defense (1.2 interceptions per game) with opportunities. Our pick comes down to confidence in running back Cam Skattebo taking advantage of an Iowa State defense that ranks 94th against the run (173.6 rush ypg) allowed this season.
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Georgia Bulldogs 21, Texas Longhorns 17
The last time the Georgia Bulldogs and Texas Longhorns faced off, the two teams combined for 7 turnovers and went 8-for-32 (25 percent conversion rate) on third-down attempts. We certainly expect there to be better protection of the football in the SEC Championship Game. The concern with Texas is that Georgia snuffed out the run game (3.5 ypc allowed to Quintrevio Wisner) and forced Quinn Ewers (20.3 QBR) to beat them. The Longhorns’ quarterback hasn’t demonstrated as of late he can be trusted if the game is on his shoulders. The Texas’ defense will keep this a wire-to-wire finish, but an Ewers’ interception is what secures the victory in the fourth quarter for Georgia.
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 34, Marshall Thundering Herd 24
The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns are hosting the Sun Belt Championship Game and it promises to be a good one. Louisiana has done an adequate job protecting the quarterback this season, ranking 32nd nationally in sack rate (4.27 percent) allowed. The control at the line of scrimmage has also opened the door for the Ragin’ Cajuns to rank 20th in yards-per-carry average (5.2). It’s the battle in the trenches that will be the X-Factor in this matchup, with Marshall’s defense led by Mike Green (16 sacks, third-most in college football). We’re betting on Louisiana to win the battle up front, allowing this offense to take advantage of a Thundering Herd team that ranks 67th in scoring defense.
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Oregon Ducks 27, Penn State Nittany Lions 20
We can’t ignore history here, with James Franklin’s Penn State Nittany Lions now sitting at 3-19 against top 10 teams. Making matters worse for Penn State in this Big Ten Championship Game, standout offensive tackle Anthony Donkoh (knee) is out. That’s especially bad news against an Oregon Ducks defense with the 10th-highest sack rate (9.14 percent) among Power 4 teams. Penn State will have more of a home-field advantage with this game being played in Indianapolis. Dillon Gabriel has had his moments – 341 pass yards and 3 total TDs in a win over Ohio State – but he also isn’t exactly a ceiling-raiser. Ultimately, the Ducks’ coaching advantage and the greater likelihood of their defense generating consistent pressure and defensive stops are what should lead Oregon to a win.
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SMU Mustangs 31, Clemson Tigers 28
The Clemson Tigers backed their way into the ACC Championship Game, giving Dabo Swinney a win-and-in scenario for the College Football Playoff. For SMU, given the very comments made by the CFP committee, the stakes are just as high as a loss on Saturday night would apparently knock the Mustangs out of the playoff mix.
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What SMU can do to secure its spot is take advantage of Clemson’s defense, more specifically the run defense. The Tigers allowed 137.7 rushing yards per game during the regular season, placing 77th in yards-per-carry average (4.5) allowed. Southern Methods runs the football about 55 percent of the time, led by Brashard Smith (6.0 ypc, 1,157 rushing yards). In a back-and-forth game between two strong offenses, Smith’s success on the ground sets up a late touchdown drive from quarterback Kevin Jennings to end Clemson’s season and send SMU to the CFP.