The 2022 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs have been more than unpredictable and major domino effects are occurring from questionable decisions. It is one of the craziest playoffs the sport has seen yet.
Let’s break down what has happened and why NASCAR is seeing the consequences of having this format.
NASCAR sees very inconsistent performances in the 2022 playoffs
The 2022 playoffs have been plagued by very uncharacteristic performances at a time when NASCAR normally sees elite performances. This is certainly the case as the Round of 8 concludes at Martinsville Speedway this weekend.
Chase Elliott, the 2022 Cup Series regular-season champion, has the worst average finishing position (17.1) of any playoff driver left. During the summer months, Elliott looked to be the championship favorite.
However, the driver of the No. 9 car has seen abysmal results during the last eight races. Elliott only has two top-10 finishes with a win coming at Talladega Superspeedway and a second-place finish at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Outside of those two performances, Elliott only has two other finishes in the top 15 spots with four finishes of 20th place or worse. The former championship favorite is not having it easy as he sits 11 points above the cut line.
Elliott is just one example of the terrible statistic coming up next. If the 2022 champion finishes in the top 10 positions at Phoenix Raceway as expected, three of the eight playoff drivers could break a very notable record.
Matt Kenseth currently holds the record for the fewest top-10 finishes (5) in the final 10 races of a NASCAR season since the modern era began in 1972 after deep research at the conclusion of the race at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Even if Elliott finishes in the top 10 spots over the next two races and wins the Cup Series championship, it would be the fewest top-10 finishes of any champion in NASCAR’s modern era.
Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano can also break the record if they don’t finish in the top-10 spots at Martinsville Speedway and win the Cup Series championship as they each have three top-10 finishes.
William Byron can tie Kenseth if he does the same as Blaney and Logano above as he has four top-10 finishes. It is a major sign that NASCAR is seeing a very inconsistent playoff from everyone…except Denny Hamlin.
Hamlin has four top-5 finishes and seven top-10 finishes through eight playoff races which lead the sport. Hamlin and Ross Chastain are the only playoff drivers to have more than four top-10 finishes as the last Round of 8 race comes this weekend.
However, the end results for the 2022 NASCAR season will undoubtedly be ridiculed by major factors that have taken place thus far.
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NASCAR’s championship picture left tainted by major factors
Kyle Larson took home a dominant and breakthrough victory after years of trying at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The victory has locked the No. 5 car into the owner’s championship at Phoenix Raceway.
What about Larson? The 30-year-old driver was bounced in the Round of 12 after hitting the wall at the Charlotte ROVAL. It effectively marked the end for the defending NASCAR Cup Series champion as Christopher Bell had a walk-off victory.
There will be many who point to Larson for his mistakes over the course of the season and that is correct. Based on the points, Larson made too many mistakes to advance and rounded into form in Florida too late.
However, if not for the appeals panel overturning William Byron’s penalty stemming from Texas Motor Speedway, Larson would be celebrating a Championship 4 berth and a chance to defend his championship.
This doesn’t say Byron should not be out of the playoffs. The driver of the No. 24 car has been a Championship 4 level competitor and absolutely deserves a chance to secure a title at Phoenix Raceway.
It’s a product of the system. Byron did not get a points penalty for affecting Denny Hamlin’s points situation. NASCAR had it correct with a points penalty but the appeals panel didn’t think the same.
Neither Byron nor Larson should be out of the playoffs. Both drivers should be competing for a driver’s championship at Phoenix Raceway. But, that is not the case this season.
Moving on to another topic, Bubba Wallace was suspended for one race at Homestead-Miami Speedway after dumping Larson and ending Christopher Bell’s day at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Bell has the fourth-best average finishing position of playoff drivers despite Wallace losing his cool at Las Vegas. Granted, the driver of the No. 20 car did not have the speed of a Championship 4 car at Homestead.
However, Bell will likely be going home as he sits in a must-win situation going into Martinsville Speedway. It’s easy to count Bell out but that was the same situation he faced at the Charlotte ROVAL. The odds are that lightning does not strike twice.
Hamlin, Byron, Chastain, and Bell have arguably been the best playoff drivers over the course of the first eight races. A case could be made for Logano but he only has three top-15 finishes.
Larson doesn’t count now but he has led the most laps of any driver over the last eight races with the Charlotte ROVAL, Talladega, and Las Vegas being his blemishes. If not for the Charlotte ROVAL, he would be in the mix.
However, only two of these five drivers are currently in the Championship 4. Chastain and Byron sit above the cut line as Hamlin and Bell are below. Logano and Elliott sit above the cut line with only seven total top-15 finishes.
Think what you want about NASCAR’s playoff system but it certainly doesn’t feel like the four best drivers will be competing at Phoenix Raceway. That’s a disappointment in itself.
All of what was said above points to how the playoffs are not rewarding the best competitors. If that was the case, one wreck out of your control wouldn’t derail the best playoff drivers from winning a championship.