The Atlanta Falcons had next to zero chance of beating the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football — literally.
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According to NFL’s Next Gen Stats, the Falcons only had a 0.7 percent chance of winning when there was just 1:56 left in the game. But, that’s why the game is played on the field and not on a computer.
The Falcons had just a 0.7% chance of winning with 1:56 left in the 4th quarter, according to the NGS win probability model.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 17, 2024
The comeback is the 7th-most improbable win in the NGS era (since 2016).#ATLvsPHI | @AtlantaFalcons pic.twitter.com/iZF0nkwHvx
The Eagles’ unraveling happened on a 3rd and 3 with 1:45 remaining in the fourth. Despite the Falcons not having any timeouts left, head coach Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore decided to call a pass play to Saquon Barkley. If Barkley reels the throw in, the game is over. And, to be fair, the stud running back was wide open.
However, Barkley dropped the pass, which stopped the clock, and forced the Eagles to kick a field goal to go up 21-15.
Now, with under 1:40 left, everyone thought the game was over — except those on the Falcons sideline.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins, who was under no pressure that final drive, connected with wide receiver Drake London for the game-tying touchdown with 34 seconds left. Younghoe Koo then kicked the game-winning extra point. It only took the Falcons 65 seconds to drive 70 yards.
The Falcons won the game 22-21.
It was the seventh-most improbable win in the Next Gen Stats era, which started in 2016.
It was the Eagles’ fourth game they’ve lost since 2023 when they’ve had the lead with less than four minutes to play.
Not first time Eagles collapsed on Monday Night Football
The Falcons’ comeback gave Eagles fans flashbacks to last year’s disastrous loss to the Seattle Seahawks when backup quarterback Drew Lock led the Seahawks to a game-winning 92-yard touchdown drive. That also happened on Monday Night Football.
It doesn’t get any easier for the 1-1 Eagles as they head to New Orleans to face the Saints on Sunday. The Falcons will take on the Kansas City Chiefs at home next Sunday night.