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Evaluating the 3 best landing spots for Aaron Judge in free agency

Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge delivered one of the best single-season performances by a player in MLB history. Turning a bet on himself in a contract year into a free-agency period that will soon make him one of the highest-paid MLB players ever.

The 6-foot-7 outfielder carried the New York Yankees in the first half of the season when they were the best team in MLB. Even in a second-half collapse, when New York went 29-27 after July 31, Judge (.337/.498/.716, 233 wRC+) put the Yankees on his shoulders to win the AL East and earn a spot in the MLB playoffs.

Related: Top MLB free agents 2022-’23

While the season ended in heartbreaking fashion once again for New York, Judge will hit the open market at peak value. The Yankees had an opportunity to sign him to a fear cheaper deal in spring training and failed to take advantage of the moment. Now, whether he returns to Yankee Stadium in 2023 as part of their lineup or playing for the opposition, Judge’s gamble on himself in 2022 will be rewarded.

Here are the three best landing spots for Aaron Judge in free agency.

Aaron Judge re-signs with New York Yankees

MLB: New York Yankees at Houston Astros
Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Judge wants to stay with the Yankees, he made that clear every step of the way. Even when he felt New York low-balled him before Opening Day, the All-Star slugger expressed a desire to remain in New York. It’s a perfect fit for both sides. Judge gets to spend his entire career with one of the most storied franchises in the history of sports and the Yankees get to keep enjoying the benefits of rostering one of the best players in baseball while raking in the revenue he brings in through advertising, attendance and jersey sales.

“Getting a chance to wear the pinstripes and play right field at Yankee Stadium, that’s an incredible honor. I definitely didn’t take it for granted at any point. I always checked myself pregame when I’d say a little prayer, I’d kind of look around the stadium and pinch myself. There’s very few individuals who get a chance to run on that field and play in front of the fans.”

Aaron Judge on what it means to play for the New York Yankees
  • Aaron Judge stats (2022): .311/.425/.686, 62 home runs, 131 RBI, 16 steals, 207 wRC+, 11.5 FanGraphs’ WAR

It’s fair to at least wonder if the two sides will reach a resolution. Judge becomes a free agent five days after the World Series and you can bet his representation will be using offers from other teams to create leverage. The Yankees have a slight advantage in a potential bidding war, but they will not land him if their offer isn’t on part with the other contracts on the table.

There’s another important element to consider. The Yankees’ 2023 payroll is currently projected at $151 million, which doesn’t include the $15 million club option on Luis Severino. Adding $40-plus million (an AAV projection for Judge) would make it more difficult for New York to address the holes on this roster. We wouldn’t have had financial concerns a decade ago, but things have changed in New York.

New York Mets steal the Yankees’ star

MLB: New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets will be one of the most fascinating teams this offseason. Billionaire owner Steve Cohen is livid after his team won 101 games in the regular season, only to be knocked out of the playoffs immediately. Compounding the uncertainty of a reactionary MLB team owner, the Mets are also poised to see many of their best pitchers Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco, Edwin Daiz) hit the open market.

  • Aaron Judge defensive stats: 93rd percentile arm strength, 82nd percentile Outs Above Average, +3 Defensive Runs Saved

New York’s late-season collapse can be blamed on its failure to add a big bat at the trade deadline. The Mets compiled just three total runs in their two losses to the San Diego Padres in the NL Wild Card round and the Atlanta Braves held them to seven combined runs in a three-game sweep that decided the division.

Enter Aaron Judge. He posted the fourth-highest fWAR (11.5) by a hitter since 1960 and set the single-season AL record for home runs. He’s a capable defender in the outfield, slashed .316/.455/.641 with runners on base this season and recorded a 222 wRC+ with runners in scoring position. Bringing Judge to Citi Field would be the perfect way for Cohen to hurt the Yankees and excite the Mets’ fan base after a disappointing year. Plus, Cohen has more than enough money to make Judge the highest-paid player in baseball.

Aaron Judge returns home to California

MLB: New York Yankees at San Francisco Giants
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

If Judge can’t return to the Yankees, going home makes the most sense for the 2022 AL MVP. Raised a San Francisco Giants fan, he could return to his roots and join the team that arguably needs him the most. While California income taxes will make things more challenging for San Francisco, it can build the type of offer that makes up for it.

Related: San Francisco Giants are New York Yankees’ top competitor for Aaron Judge

The fan base is understandably demanding a big splash in free agency. San Francisco missed the playoffs in large part because it ranked 23rd in batting average (.234), 14th in wRC+ (101), 13th in OPS (.705), 12th in home runs (183). Platoons only get a club so far, it needs at least one elite hitter in the lineup who can provide consistency and be trusted in critical spots. Judge fits all of that perfectly and he could fill the void as the face of the franchise following Buster Posey’s retirement.

  • Aaron Judge contract projection: 9 years, $360 million ($40 million AAV)

Heading into the winter, the Giants are projected to have just $104.5 million in committed payroll for the upcoming season. Based in the sixth-largest TV market in the United States with the second wealthiest city in the country, there are ample opportunities to market Judge and generate massive revenue. It all sets up for the Giants to make an aggressive run at Judge and they should be viewed as the favorites behind the Yankees.

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