Dubbed as the fastest and most exciting two minutes in all of sports, as the much-anticipated 150th running of the Kentucky Derby draws near, a buzz surrounds what is expected to be another memorable race at Churchill Downs. With its century-and-half history as one of sports’ greatest events, this year’s contenders have different styles, and even the race’s favorite, Fierceness, is drawing great interest as post-time draws near.
To gain an insider’s view on the contenders and the dynamics of this prestigious event, horse racing expert Steve Byk, host of SiriusXM’s “At the Races,” talked with us about this year’s field and some of his predictions on how the race could end up.
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Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness is not without scrutiny
Byk, who is hosting a special three-hour pre-race broadcast live from Churchill Downs on SiriusXM Channel 85, told us the frontrunner, Fierceness, trained by Todd Pletcher, has not escaped scrutiny despite securing three wins in five races, including an impressive victory at the Florida Derby. Byk stressed that there are always reasons for concern, even when a horse seems unbeatable.
“I mean, he’s he’s the real thing. That’s not an issue,” Byk told me from the paddock at Churchill Downs. “The question is he a horse that can withstand pressure and things not necessarily going his way? He certainly benefited from the draw being outside. He’s got Johnny Velasques as a rider that goes forward. As long as he breaks well, he should find a good position.”
Byk pointed out that Fierceness’ two defeats, which have raised questions about his ability to perform consistently under pressure, don’t necessarily mean he’ll have an issue in the Derby. He did emphasize the importance of Fierceness’s resilience in adversity and how crucial it is for him to get off to a strong start to secure a favorable position early in the race.
“He doesn’t necessarily have to have the lead,” Byk said. “He didn’t have the lead in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. He didn’t immediately have the lead in the Florida Derby. But he does have to be well-positioned.”
While it is true that none of Fierceness’s three wins came back-to-back, he still enters the Kentucky Derby as the favorite, currently at 5/2.
Delving into tactics and Fierceness’s racing style, Byk shed light on how the colt’s high cruising speed compels rivals to chase him—a tactical advantage contributing to his past successes.
“There is speed to his inside,” Byk said. “You could see a scenario where John Velasquez, if it feels like he’s starting to get pressure, Johnny may go ahead and it may force his hand, but then, at the same time, he is such a smooth, efficient front running horse. He’ll make everybody else chase. And those scenarios have seen him romp to that Juvenile win and the Florida Derby win.”
However, he also noted the challenges posed by other swift starters like Track Phantom and Dornick, which could potentially disrupt Fierceness’ race strategy.
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Sierra Leone formidable competition
Shifting the focus to Sierra Leone, a 3-1 favorite behind Fierceness, trained by Chad Brown and jockeyed by Tyler Gafflione, Byk highlighted the differences in racing styles between the top two contenders. In contrast to Fierceness, Sierra Leone tends to make a late surge, posing its unique challenges.
“Well, Sierra Leone, and what makes it interesting in terms of the two favorites, here you’ve got a horse that has to be on the point, has to be on the lead or certainly, you know, in close contact,” Byk said.” And then you’ve got a horse that’s gonna basically have to pass them all. And he’s (Sierra Leone) gonna have to pass them all. The way he drew inside, chances are horses are gonna become dropping down.”
Apart from discussing the favorites, Byk also touched upon horses that might face unfavorable positioning due to their draw, such as Resilience and Stronghold, and how this could affect their performance.
“He (Resilience) probably got hurt most in the 19th hole,” Byk said. “Stronghold, who won the Santa Anita Derby, he’s in the 18. And I like Stronghold a bit because he has a certain tenacity. He’s a horse that can sit third or fourth and basically stalk. So he can more or less get in behind Fierceness as he moves down the stretch and find, you know, basically, a spot to get comfortable, probably fifth, sixth, or seventh. I don’t think Stronghold is as compromised as a few others.”
Other Kentucky Derby contenders to watch
He also discussed sleeper picks like Just A Touch and Anna Marie, underscoring their ability to surprise on race day despite being considered long shots. By delving into past races and keen race insights, Byk thoroughly examined how positioning at the eighth pole often foreshadows the top finishers, offering valuable perspectives for both experienced bettors and casual viewers.
“For those that like to understand the way this race is run, go and pull up the charts of Reese —not just Reese and Kentucky Derby, it’s any Kentucky Derby,” Byk said. “Look at the positioning of the horses after a mile and an eighth because at least two, most often three horses that are 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th at the 8th pole, those horses are gonna be in the superfecta. That doesn’t change year to year. So, instead of trying to figure out who’s gonna win at 10 furlongs, figure out who will be in front at the 8th pole because that will give you two-thirds or three-quarters of the top finishers in this race.”
As the Kentuck Derby draws near, the mix of thrilling racing, excitement, and tactical complexity that characterizes the race makes it such a grand sporting event. It transforms it into more than just a competition, which is why even casual horseracing fans don’t miss the annual Run for the Roses.
Post-time Saturday at Churchill Downs is 6:57 pm ET.