Jason Burgos
On Saturday night, the MMA world leader returns to Paramount+ for their latest mega event, UFC 328. The card inside New Jersey’s Prudential Center will include 13 fights and feature a pair of championship matchups.
In the main event, middleweight king Khamzat Chimaev defends his title for the first time when he takes on the challenge of former champion Sean Strickland. In the co-headliner, new UFC flyweight champ Joshua Van takes on the challenge of top contender Tatsuro Taira.
There will be a whole bunch of bets laid down at bookmakers for Saturday’s fights. But which ones have the best chance of a big payout? We look at six potential upset options at UFC 328 to put your hard-earned money down on.
Jeremy Stephens defeats King Green
A bout that has Fight of the Night potential is the clash between MMA greybeards King Green and Jeremy Stephens. Both men are set to turn 40 this year, are far removed from their prime, and have a combined 39 losses on their cage fighting resumes. That means this fight is completely unpredictable and can go either way.
Green is a big favorite with bookmakers for good reason. Stephens hasn’t won an MMA fight in four years, and Green is on a two-fight win streak. However, they both have a ton of fight miles on their chin. However, “Lil Heathen” still has that reset-button power in his hands, which can be a problem for a weakened chin.
Green will outbox Stephens, but is at a big risk of getting the restart button pressed.
Jim Miller defeats Jared Gordon
UFC 328 features a matchup of tri-state greybeards when 42-year-old Jim Miller takes on 37-year-old Jared Gordon. Gordon, the New York native, is a solid favorite because his New Jersey opponent is trying to squeeze out every bit of what’s left in his body as a pro athlete.
Miller’s win over Damon Jackson in 2024 shows he is still dangerous. And Gordon having just eight knockouts in 21 wins is another big plus for Miller’s well-aged chin. While he might struggle in Round 1, look for Miller to eventually use his grappling and grind out an upset win in front of his home state fans.
Roman Kopylov defeats Marco Tulio Silva
Roman Kopylov is a sleeper underdog to keep an eye on at UFC 328. He has lost his last two and is facing a dangerous striker in Marco Tulio Silva, who had four-straight KO wins before a surprise loss in November. Plus Silva is four years younger.
However, the devil is in the details, and Kopylov’s defeats came against high-level competition in Gregory Rodrigues and Paulo Costa. The Russian is also a very skilled striker with legit knockout talent. Look for him to use it and get back in the win column on Saturday.
William Gomis defeats Pat Sabbatini
Talented grappler Pat Sabbatini returns to action on Saturday at UFC 328 and is a solid favorite against France’s William Gomis. We all know how a lot of Western European talents struggle with grapplers, and that is probably why the American is the favorite.
However, Sabbatini will turn 36 later this year, and age creeps on fighters fast, especially at the lower weight classes. Gomis is a skilled striker and good athlete who will do just enough to avoid takedowns and will eke out a decision win in New Jersey.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta defeats Alexander Volkov
One of the big fights at UFC 328 — in terms of relevance and sheer size — is the heavyweight clash between top contender Alexander Volkov and red-hot Dominican Waldo Cortes-Acosta. A case could be made that the winner should be next in line for a title fight if Tom Aspinall’s eyes are not yet ready for a return in the fall.
Volkov’s length is always a big problem for foes, and he knows how to use it well. However, Cortes-Acosta is a small underdog because he has scored three-straight KO wins and is a far better athlete than he looks. Volkov should win because of his length and experience, but we see an upset coming because of “Salsa Boy’s” speed and athleticism advantages.
Sean Strickland defeats Khamzat Chimaev
All eyes will be on the UFC 328 main event clash between Strickland and Chimaev on Saturday because they offer big tests for each other. Can the American be the first man to slow down and upend Chimaev’s wrestling onslaught? What does “Borz” do if he can’t wrestle his way to victory and has to go into the deep end of the pool with a man who has the best gas tank in the division?
The interesting thing about this matchup is that they have trained together, so Strickland has a sense of Chimaev’s strength and techniques. That is a huge plus for him. Don’t be surprised if the former champion loses the first three rounds, but his gas tank and output turn the tide in the second half of the fight, and he eventually overwhelms Chimaev to get a shocking TKO win in the fifth round.
Chimaev is a big favorite and should win, but there are unique elements of this fight that make him a worthwhile risk to bet against.
