The St. Louis Cardinals have been the subject of several MLB rumors this offseason all pointing to the organization finally taking a long-term approach with a retooling of the roster and farm system. With the front office unified in its direction, it appears at least one blockbuster trade is coming this offseason.
St. Louis already parted ways with Paul Goldschmidt, the All-Star first baseman who first put on a Cardinals’ uniform in 2019. The veteran’s contract expired this offseason and the team is allowing him to walk in MLB free agency. Soon, All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado could be the next top hitter out the door.
- Nolan Arenado stats (ESPN): .272/.325/.394, .719 OPS, 16 home runs, 71 RBI
Arenado, who turns 34 in April, is coming off a career-worst season. He finished with his lowest home run total over a full season since his rookie campaign in 2013. He also posted a sub.800 OPS for the second consecutive season and finished with a career-low in slugging (.394).
The 10-time Gold Glove Award winner also isn’t the defender at third base he used to be. In his age-33 season, Arenado finished in the 86th percentile for Baseball Savant‘s Fielding Run Value. It’s the second consecutive season he’s finished below the 90th percentile. With St. Louis entering a multi-year transition, there’s no real home for Arenado.
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According to Katie Woo of The Athletic, there’s a “growing sense” around MLB that Arenado will eventually be traded this offseason with enough suitors involved for a deal to come together. However, a trade likely won’t come to fruition until well after the first wave of MLB free agency.
- Nolan Arenado contract (Spotrac): $21 million salary in 2025, $16 million salary in 2026, $15 million salary in 2027. $3 million annual deferred salary from 2032-2041
Talks are expected to intensify at the MLB Winter Meetings, where free-agent third basemen like Alex Bregman and Willy Adames could come off the board. Once the top bats are off the market, then MLB teams will likely pivot their focus to an Arenado trade.
One potential factor strengthening the trade market for Arenado is the veteran’s reported willingness to move over to first base. For teams with a vacancy at the position or who believe the best bet for Arenado’s longevity is moving him to the opposite side of the infield, it could increase the field of suitors the Cardinals are working with. While a trade will mean the end of an era for St. Louis, it will also kick start a much-needed rebuild.
