After a disappointing first half, the St. Louis Blues’ hopes have sunk, and they are set to join the small list of teams likely to be sellers at this year’s NHL trade deadline.
The team has been unable to put a product on the ice general manager Doug Armstrong and head coach Jim Montgomery expected when the season began, and the rumors are beginning to swirl around the biggest names.
Veteran names such as defenseman Justin Faulk and captain Brayden Schenn have been circulating in the rumor mill since Thanksgiving, and are almost certainly going to garner strong interest. Blues forward Jordan Kyrou has also been rumored in trade talks over the last several seasons, after the team has questioned his two-way ability and effort.
However, the rumors haven’t stopped there. One player certainly viewed as the cornerstone of the franchise and building block for the team has landed on The Athletic’s Trade Target Board by NHL Insider Chris Johnston.
Center Robert Thomas was found at No. 11 on Johnston’s latest edition of his trade target board over at The Athletic. While many around the league might be surprised to find Thomas’ name on the list, his production this year has taken a dip from years past. However, given his reputation around the league as one of the best centers with elite playmaking and his ability to play some of the toughest minutes in the NHL, combined with one of the league’s most affordable contracts, he could provide not only immense value to a team that acquires him, but a big trade haul for the Blues, too.
Why Trade Thomas?
Thomas is on pace for his worst season since the 2019-2020 season, when he was only averaging around 14 minutes a night of ice time. This season, he has just 10 goals and 20 assists in 40 games while averaging nearly 20 minutes a night. Like many Blues, Thomas’ production has not been where it should be for a player of his caliber, but would the dip in production make the Blues deal him away, especially when everybody on the roster is under-performing?
The answer to that question is complicated, but the short answer is no. If Armstrong and the Blues were to move on from Thomas, it would not be solely because of his production or because he is a problem on the team. While his production is not where it should be for a first-line center this season, Thomas would almost only be moved if a team came to the table with an offer so strong the Blues front office could not refuse.
With the entire NHL aware that the Blues are looking to shake up the roster in a major way, teams are calling to see just how much change they are looking to make. Johnston states on his trade list, “It would take a serious offer to land Thomas in the prime of his career, but the Blues are open for business.”
Choosing to move Thomas over other core forwards, like Kyrou or Pavel Buchnevich, both of whom are also producing career-low numbers, would be because he would bring back the most value to the Blues in a trade to help kickstart what could be another re-tool. Unlike Kyrou or Buchnevich, Thomas plays center; he also plays in all situations, including both special teams units, and has proven he can drive production on his own line when given the proper linemates who can finish plays. While Kyrou is not a penalty killer, and Buchnevich is not a player that can produce on his own, Thomas brings more value to the team that would acquire him.
Trading away the player who most believed would be the next captain of the team after Schenn departed the organization would definitely be a seismic shift for the team as a whole. Still, Armstrong has said repeatedly this season that he is not afraid to make that big change to get better results.
What Would a Thomas Trade Look Like?
There is no question Armstrong and Blues have a high asking price for the team’s best player, but there are more variables when looking at a Robert Thomas trade. The two most recent blockbusters involving superstars Quinn Hughes to the Minnesota Wild, and Miko Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes, and then again to the Dallas Stars, are the closest examples to a team’s arguably best player getting a new address.
Despite his value to the Blue, Thomas’ situation is not the same as Hughes’ or Rantanen’s. Thomas plays center, widely regarded as the most important position in hockey, and has team control on a very team-friendly contract with six years remaining at $8.125 million. As the salary cap rises, Thomas’ deal will only become more of a bargain.
To look at what Thomas could get on the market if the Blues were to trade him, you’d have to look back at other top-50 players in the NHL that were traded, and how Thomas differentiates from those players. When Jake Guentzel was traded from the Pittsburgh Penguins to the Carolina Hurricanes, the Penguins were able to receive three prospects, a middle-six NHL-caliber forward in Michael Bunting, plus a conditional first-round draft pick (which became an early second-rounder).
The difference with the Guentzel deal is that Guentzel is a winger, not a center, and had an expiring contract. Carolina acquired him with the intention of trying to re-sign Guentzel, but had to take the risk–which they eventually lost. Conversely, any team acquiring Thomas would have several years of team control.
Similarly, when the New York Rangers made the blockbuster deal for forward J.T. Miller, they traded away a middle-six center in Filip Chytil, who had missed a large portion of time due to concussions, a potential young bottom pairing defenseman, Victor Mancini, and a first-round pick. However, when Miller was traded by Vancouver, he was seen as an aging, depreciating asset in the back half of his career and part of internal problems, while also not providing much defensive value.
So a deal for Thomas is not as clear-cut as it seems. It is not often that a player of Thomas’ caliber is available. Given his age, valuable contract, and full 200-foot game, the Blues’ front office will almost certainly have a high asking price for any team inquiring.
How Likely is a Deal?
A deadline deal for such talent under team control just doens’t seem to make as much sense, unless a team made an offer Armstrong couldn’t resist.
If the Blues were to choose to move any of Thomas, Kyrou, or Buchnevich, it would almost certainly be an off-season move. Teams around the league will have more cap space and flexibility to acquire all of their $8.125 million contracts ($8 million for Buchnevich) for the remaining five seasons on their respective deals.
A trade involving any of the three, including Thomas, at the deadline would be surprising, but if a team is willing to meet the Blues’ high asking price, anything is on the table. When specifically looking at trading away Thomas, an off-season deal makes the most sense. The team already lacks center depth behind him, and with the Blues likely moving Schenn, trading away Thomas would be a major hit for the team down the middle.
The Blues are high on young forward Dalibor Dvorsky, but at just 20 years old, they will not want to thrust him right into a top-line center role if Thomas, along with Schenn, were traded. The more likely outcome if the Blues get an offer they can’t refuse for Thomas would be dealing him in the off-season to give the organization more flexibility to either find his replacement on the top-line through another trade or free agency, or give another summer of development to young forwards like Dvorsky or Otto Stenberg to fill the void Thomas would leave behind on the top line.
When looking at the roster, a trade involving Thomas, or any of the core three forwards will come down to one question that both Armstrong and his replacement Alexander Steen will have to answer: Can we win with this group at the top? So far, the results have shown no, and while Thomas might be the least problematic of the three in terms of on-ice value and production, trading him could also net a return so big it jumpstarts the next phase of the Blues rebuild in a hurry.
