Farah Ben Gamra
The United States quite literally couldn’t have started their 2026 FIFA World Cup campaign any better. Mauricio Pochettino’s squad has officially already secured a place in the Round of 32 after victories over Paraguay (4-1) and Australia (2-0).
With first place firmly guaranteed, the upcoming match against Turkey becomes an ideal opportunity for squad management. Pochettino can manage his squad’s minutes, allowing the USMNT to carry an elite wave of momentum and rested legs into the do-or-die elimination rounds.
Why will the United States finish first even if they end level on points?
One of the big changes introduced by FIFA for the 2026 World Cup concerns the tiebreaking criteria. Unlike previous editions, teams tied on points are now separated first by head-to-head results rather than overall goal difference.
That rule guarantees the United States top spot in Group D, even before their final group-stage match against Turkey. The USMNT beat Paraguay and Australia in their opening two games, meaning they own the head-to-head advantage over both teams.
As a result, even if either nation finishes level with the Americans on 6 points, the U.S. would still remain atop the group.
Finishing first is significant because it ensures the United States will face one of the tournament’s best third-placed teams in the Round of 32 on July 1 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.
Who Will USA Face In the World Cup Knockout Stages? Possible Opponents
Bosnia and Herzegovina lead the projections
Bosnia and Herzegovina appear to be the most likely opponent for the Americans. Currently sitting third in Group B ahead of their final match against Qatar, the Balkan nation is in a strong position to claim one of the eight places reserved for the best third-placed teams.
Several projections have given Bosnia and Herzegovina the highest probability (between 55% and 58%) of facing the United States in the Round of 32
Qatar and Senegal remain the next most likely scenarios
Should Bosnia fail to qualify, Qatar represents the second most probable opponent. The 2022 World Cup hosts carry roughly a 9.5 % chance of facing the United States and could leapfrog Bosnia with a victory in their winner-take-all Group B showdown.
Senegal is the third most likely matchup at around 7.0 %. The Lions of Teranga currently sit third in Group I and would need a convincing victory over Iraq in their final group match to strengthen their position among the best third-placed teams and enter the United States’ section of the knockout bracket.
Ecuador headlines a group of outside contenders
Ecuador rounds out the leading contenders with a 6.0 & probability. However, La Tri are currently stuck behind Germany and the Ivory Coast in Group E and would likely need a combination of favorable results elsewhere to remain third and be drawn against the Americans.
Algeria has recently moved into third place in Group J and carries a 5 %chance of meeting the USMNT. Jordan is still a mathematical possibility at 4.0 %, and Austria retains only an outside shot at 3 % should Group J have a chaotic finish.
