Which rookie quarterbacks are in the best position to succeed in 2023? As we’ve seen before, the top pick in the NFL draft isn’t always the one who has the best rookie season. The No. 1 overall pick hasn’t won Rookie of the Year since 2019 when Kyler Murray took home the honors.
Typically, a team selecting a QB high in the draft doesn’t just need a gunslinging savior to turn their franchise around. The rest of the roster typically has plenty of other holes that prevent immediate success.
Our latest look around the NFL highlights the top four quarterbacks selected on draft weekend. So, between Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis, which QB is set to take the league by storm? And which rookie QB landed in the worst situation? We ranked them from who we expect to struggle to who we expect to thrive in their first season as a pro.
Related: 3 ideal trade landing spots for New York Jets star Quinnen Williams after social media scrub
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Unlike the Carolina Panthers, who traded up from No. 9 to take Bryce Young with the top pick, the Houston Texans actually were the second-worst team in football a season ago. C.J. Stroud, as talented as he may be, isn’t joining an All-Pro roster.
It’s not like the Texans only had problems at the QB positions last season. They did finish with the second-worst rushing attack in the NFL, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. The Texans responded by adding two-time Super Bowl champ Shaq Mason at right guard and drafting center Juice Scruggs with the 62nd overall pick, but until we see this protection scheme at work, there’s no guarantee one of last season’s worst offensive lines will suddenly take a huge leap overnight.
But it’s more than just a suspect ground game and questionable protection Stroud has to worry about. Aside from newcomers Dalton Schultz and Robert Woods, the Texans don’t have anyone on their roster who topped 500 yards a season ago.
John Metchie and Nico Collins both have the potential to establish themselves as starting receivers, but this cast of receivers isn’t scaring anyone, and it’s not like Stroud is one to make defenders pay with his mobility, either.
In summation, we see more growing pains for Stroud as a rookie than any other QB, but that doesn’t mean the Texans shouldn’t start him from Week 1 so he can learn from his inevitable first-year mistakes.
Related: NFL QB Rankings: Updated with all 32 starters from Sam Howell to Patrick Mahomes
Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
Even though Will Levis isn’t beginning his Tennessee Titans career as a starter, Ryan Tannehill’s grasp on the QB1 position may not be very secure. Three of Tennessee’s first six matchups are against teams who made the playoffs in 2022. Should the Titans get off to a rough start, it’s not hard to envision the organization wanting to get an early look at the player they traded up to No. 33 for.
Although Levis had the worst draft day experience of all the other QBs on this list, he now benefits from the awkwardness as the 23-year-old now has much less pressure surrounding him. This extends all the way through training camp, where fans aren’t looking at him to be the immediate savior and are instead evaluating him on his tools and traits, of which Levis can provide plenty of reasons for optimism.
He slipped. So what? Now Levis can use his story as motivation to dive into the playbook and be even more critical of his overall process. All that matters is once Levis gets his number called, he’s ready to go.
Once Levis is in the lineup, he’ll have the benefit of playing alongside one of the best running backs in the NFL. Derrick Henry causes teams to load the box, leaving the back end of the secondary susceptible to deep passes that sail over their heads. Levis, with his big arm, can make them pay for their mistakes.
We still have questions about the Titans’ receiving corps. Treylon Burks showed he can do plenty of damage after the catch, and Chigoziem Okonkwo showed promise, but if Levis gets a chance, his biggest obstacle could be overcoming Tennessee’s less-than-ideal personnel.
Related: Tennessee Titans reportedly won’t let Will Levis compete for starting gig in training camp
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Even if the Colts’ offensive line flutters once again, Richardson has the ability to work his way out of a jam. First-year coach Shane Steichen comes from Philadelphia and should be able to draw up an offense that takes advantage of Richardson’s mobility. Coaches are already impressed with Richardson’s pocket awareness.
Jonathan Taylor should be able to return to being one of the best backs in football. Establishing the run to set up the pass will likely still be the Colts’ mantra with Taylor in town, and this can be used to Richardson’s benefit. If he can operate Steichen’s offense efficiently, spiking his career 54.7% completion rate, Richardson can become a major problem for defenses in the pros.
However, we’re still not sure about how consistently his receivers can win their one-on-one battles. For a player who has inconsistency questions as a raw talent who didn’t have much to work with at Florida either, that mix of uncertainly could prove to be a bad combination.
Michael Pittman is the clear No. 1 target here, but it will be imperative for Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, and a talented tight end group to emerge as complementary pieces for Richardson to hit the ground running as a Colt.
Related: Why the Anthony Richardson pick might be a turning point for the Indianapolis Colts
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
If there’s one player who we anticipate looking anything but like a rookie in his first season, it’s Carolina’s Bryce Young. We’re not saying the former Heisman winner won’t experience his own struggles as a rookie. He’s human.
Young won’t suddenly put up crazy passing numbers or become a fantasy football star in his first season, but the Panthers won’t require any of that from their 21-year-old leader. Even though D’Onta Foreman has moved on, we’re still expecting new coach Frank Reich to lean on the team’s ground game, led by Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard.
The Panthers’ offensive strength will likely still be their rushing attack, but when asked to move the chains, Young will be as prepared as any other QB in the NFL. He’s already developed a reputation for someone who loves the game of football and works overtime studying the sport, his opponent, and his playbook. Young may be a rookie, but he’ll be prepared for every situation he’s thrown in before he experiences it in the pros.
His experienced staff, led by Reich, complemented by former NFL QB Josh McCown, can help the already bright gunslinger get up to speed quicker than his peers. Having two veteran, former Pro Bowl wideouts in D.J. Chark and Adam Thielen gives Young a higher floor than his fellow rookie QBs, and other playmakers such as Jonathan Mingo, Hayden Hurst, and Terrace Marshall give us even more reasons to be excited about Young’s chances of thriving in his first season.
The Panthers already showed they were a team on the rise late in the year, winning five of their past eight games. We believe coach Reich and his newest QB protege can help the Panthers pounce on their NFC South opponents this season.
