With three weeks remaining in the regular season, the AFC has a logjam of teams with 8-6 records.
There of the five 8-6 teams reside in the AFC South alone — the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans. The chances for each team vary, based on a number of tiebreaking scenarios — head-to-head, division records, conferences, etc. — and the toughness of their remaining schedule.
Even though some teams rank higher than other in the current playoff picture, that doesn’t necessarily mean they will end up in the same spot three weeks from now.
Below is a ranking of the AFC “bubble” teams based on their chances of making the playoffs. So, this list excludes the Baltimore Ravens (11-3), the Miami Dolphins (10-4), the Kansas City Chiefs (9-5), and the Cleveland Browns (9-5), who each have an 88 percent chance or better of advancing to the postseason.
The ranking also doesn’t include the New England Patriots, the New York Jets and the Tennessee Titans because they’ve already been eliminated from playoff contention. The percentages used to indicate each team’s playoffs chances comes from the New York Times playoff simulator.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6)
AFC playoff chances: 74%
Current playoff seed: No. 4
Remaining games
- Week 16: at Tampa Bay
- Week 17: vs. Carolina
- Week 18: at Tennessee
Analysis
The Jaguars lead the AFC South because they’ve beaten the Colts twice head-to-head and have a better division record than the Texans. Even though they have the best chance statistically, the Jaguars will be waiting to hear whether Trevor Lawrence, who’s in concussion protocol, will be cleared to play Sunday. If not, C.J. Beathard will get the start against the red-hot Buccaneers, who’ve won three straight games, and Baker Mayfield, who had a perfect passer rating Sunday in Green Bay. It helps that the Jaguars finish with a relatively easy schedule compared to most.
2. Buffalo Bills (8-6)
AFC playoff chances: 71%
Current playoff seed: No. 9
Remaining games
- Week 16: at LA Chargers
- Week 17: vs. New England
- Week 18: at Miami
Analysis
There might not be a more dangerous team in the AFC than the Buffalo Bills, who just pummeled the Dallas Cowboys behind a breakout game from running back James Cook. The Bills are rolling at the right time, and other than Week 18 finale against Miami, whom they’ve already beaten earlier this season, expect to see the Bills in the playoffs in January.
3. Houston Texans (8-6)
AFC playoff chances: 55%
Current playoff seed: No. 8
Remaining games
- Week 16: vs. Cleveland
- Week 17: vs. Tennessee
- Week 18: at Indianapolis
Analysis
C.J. Stroud remains in concussion protocol after sitting out the Texans’ 20-17 victory over the Titans on Sunday, with Case Keenum at quarterback. They could use Stroud this week against the Browns, who come in with the No. 1 defense in the league, especially against the pass. The Week 16 is Houston’s toughest, but an AFC playoff berth could be at stake in Week 18 at Indianapolis.
4. Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
AFC playoff chances: 53%
Current playoff seed: No. 7
Remaining games
- Week 16: at Atlanta
- Week 17: vs. Las Vegas
- Week 18: vs. Houston
Analysis
Behind Gardner Minshew, the Colts rolled over the lifeless Steelers to double their win total from a year ago and put first-year coach Shane Steichen in the conversation for NFL Coach of the Year. The schedule is favorable, with Houston being the only above-.500 opponent. So, it’s likely that the Colts will hold on to the No. 7 spot in the AFC that they currently own. And that’s good enough.
5. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)
AFC playoff chances: 36%
Current playoff seed: No. 6
Remaining games
- Week 16: at Pittsburgh
- Week 17: at Kansas City
- Week 18: vs. Cleveland
Analysis
Jake Browning has been nothing short of spectacular for the Bengals, but it might not be good enough in the end. Even though they sit in the No. 6 spot, the Bengals face the toughest stretch of games of all the AFC bubble teams. Nobody would want to finish with games at Kansas City and against Cleveland pretty much anywhere. So, chances are the Bengals will fall out of the playoff picture — unless Browning can continue to work his magic.
6. Denver Broncos (7-7)
AFC playoff chances: 21%
Current playoff seed: No. 10
Remaining games
- Week 16: vs. New England
- Week 17: vs. LA Chargers
- Week 18: at Las Vegas
Analysis
The Broncos have a fairly light schedule when you consider the team’s records, but that might not matter in the end. They still have much lower odds than the AFC teams above them. Just as their recent five-game winning streak moved them into the playoff conversation briefly, their past three weeks — with losses to Houston and Detroit — have dropped them back out again.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)
AFC playoff chances: 3%
Current playoff seed: No. 11
Remaining games
- Week 16: vs. Cincinnati
- Week 17: at Seattle
- Week 18: at Baltimore
Analysis
With their crushing loss to the Colts, the Steelers lost more playoff ground than any team in the league. They’ve gone from looking good at 6-3 to looking lost, with four losses in their past five games and speculation that their rapid decline could cost Mike Tomlin his job after 17 seasons.
8. Las Vegas Raiders (6-8)
AFC playoff chances: 1%
Current playoff seed: No. 12
Remaining games
- Week 16: at Kansas City
- Week 17: at Indianapolis
- Week 18: vs. Denver
Analysis
The Raiders put together one of the most dominant performances of the season in their a 63-21 blowout of the Chargers, a rout that included a 42-0 halftime lead — the second largest in NFL history. But this was also the same team that lost to the Minnesota Vikings, 3-0, the previous week. So, while the Raiders have no shot, their Silver and Black fans should just go back and replay that Chargers’ destruction over and over in the offseason.
9. Los Angeles Chargers (5-9)
AF playoff chances: <1%
Current playoff seed: No. 13
Remaining games
- Week 16: vs. Buffalo
- Week 17: at Denver
- Week 18: vs. Kansas City
Analysis
Having a less-than-one percent chance might be too kind for the Chargers after last week’s laugher that cost head coach Brandon Staley his job. The Chargers’ season was over even well before Justin Herbert suffered his season-ending injury fracture, and they came out and showed it was over as they sleep-walked through their game with the Raiders. The next thing for Chargers fans to look forward to his whom they might hire as their next head coach.