The 2024 season ended in massive disappointment for the Philadelphia Phillies. After harboring World Series aspirations, the National League East champions were eliminated in the NLDS by division rival New York Mets. In a stunning turn of events, the offense went cold — again — while the typically reliable bullpen imploded, resulting in just one postseason victory.
The early exit continues a troubling pattern. Over the last three seasons, the Phillies have experienced progressively earlier playoff exits: from losing the World Series in 2022, to falling in the NLCS in 2023, and now suffering elimination in the NLDS.
This regression isn’t what owner John Middleton envisioned when committing hundreds of millions in player contracts. The Phillies surpassed the second luxury tax threshold during the 2024 season with a $261 million payroll — the fifth-highest in Major League Baseball.
According to The Philadelphia Inquirer, the franchise will incur a $13 million tax penalty, pushing the total payroll to a club-record $274 million.
Looking ahead to 2025, the Phillies have already committed $220.5 million to just 11 players, not including arbitration-eligible players like Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, and Ranger Suarez. Additionally, high-leverage relievers Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez are entering free agency, though Phillies President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski has indicated it’s unlikely the team would retain both players.
Philadelphia Phillies owner expects payroll to rise in 2025
Despite the record payroll, Middleton has indicated to The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber that he’s willing to push spending into the third tax threshold of $281 million. This move would trigger a 92.5% surcharge on every dollar above that threshold and result in the franchise’s 2026 first-round draft pick being moved back ten spots.
“Given where we are in contract cycles and minor league people coming up, I expect the player payroll to be higher [than this year] rather than lower,” Middleton said. “I’d be surprised if it’s the same, and I’d be stunned, very stunned, if it’s lower. I don’t see it being lower.”
More significantly for Phillies fans, Middleton expressed willingness to exceed the third tax threshold for “the right player.”
“For the right player,” Middleton said. “I have a high degree of confidence that Dave and I would go over the third limit.”
The most prominent free agent target is Juan Soto, who just completed the best season of his career at age 25 with the New York Yankees. Soto is expected to command a contract in the $600 million range, with both the Yankees and New York Mets anticipated to make substantial offers for his services.
However, Soto isn’t the only All-Star free agent who could interest the Phillies. Power-hitting corner outfielder Anthony Santander has demonstrated consistent production, belting 105 home runs over the last three seasons, including 44 in 2024. Should Soto prove too expensive, Santander represents a compelling alternative for the Phillies’ outfield upgrade needs.
Whatever moves the Phillies make, their World Series-or-bust mentality remains firmly in place for 2025. The team’s primary focus will be upgrading their outfield and offense. Landing either Soto or Santander would address that problem.
Related: 10 moves Philadelphia Phillies should make this winter, including signing Juan Soto and Max Scherzer