A playoff system should be judged not by who gets in but rather, who is left out.
From that standpoint, NASCAR repeatedly expanding its playoff format from 10, to 12, that regrettable season with 13, and now 16 has been exhausting. It’s too inclusive when a championship should be decided by the most exclusive club members.
At the same time, this isn’t a problem exclusive to NASCAR as both Major League Baseball and the National Football League expanded its postseason pool in recent years too. It certainly dilutes the product, makes the accomplishment feel less important, and minimizes the importance of a regular season.
And yet, despite every reason to want to reject how NASCAR determines a champion, and there are still many, this summer has been a case study of something it gets right.
The worst statistical team of the season, the Wood Brothers No. 21 and driver Harrison Burton, won the Coke Zero Sugar 400 and have qualified for the playoffs.
Meanwhile, if the current standings hold through the Southern 500 on Sunday at Darlington, the following drivers will all miss the playoffs: Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain, Bubba Wallace, Michael McDowell, Chase Briscoe, Erik Jones, Josh Berry, Austin Dillon and John Hunter Nemechek.
That is a lot of former playoff drivers, crew chiefs and teams with expectations and they are going to all be on the outside looking in over the final 10 races.
So how is this working, pray-tell?
Kyle Busch came up just short of a three-wide finish at Atlanta to Daniel Suarez and Ryan Blaney. Suarez is one spot lower in championship points and will race for a championship instead.
That cold night in late February mattered.
Austin Cindric, below both of them in points, is going to race for a championship because Christopher Bell suffered an engine failure and Ryan Blaney ran out of fuel. Cindric and the Penske 2 team was third best that day but that was enough to capitalize on one moment in time over 36 races.
That mattered.
Alex Bowman is one spot about Wallace in the championship standings and the Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 could arguably be just as exposed if not for that spirited drive on the Streets of Chicago.
That night mattered.
McDowell controlled the races at Talladega and Daytona, and as is so often the case, one ill-fated move was the difference between winning and crashing; not making the playoffs. Instead, Burton survived the chaos, no doubt about that, fended off an equally desperate Busch with a push from Parker Retzlaff and will catapult from 34th to 16th by the end of the week.
It’s why Austin Dillon, no matter what his public facing argument is, was willing to do whatever it took to reach the finish line first at Richmond. Like Burton at Daytona, it takes just seconds to transform and entire season, and not to mention all the business-related benefits of making the Round of 16, even with a quick exit after three races.
Those moments in time, they mattered.
Wallace and Chastain are 13th and 14th in the championship standings but there’s no solace to be found in that when three others behind them went to Victory Lane in a format that places winning above all other outcomes.
Sure, it’s really easy to forecast Burton, Cindric and Suarez failing to advance into the second round but that first round also features Atlanta, now a diet superspeedway race, and the Watkins Glen road course. And if nothing else, Joey Logano and Martin Truex Jr. last September taught us how perilous it is for anyone on the bubble in that first round.
It’s a reality that even Denny Hamlin is faced with in the aftermath of his engine seal violation and penalty last week.
Make no mistake, 16 is still too inclusive, but the win and in provision balances it out. On merit, there are certainly teams that do not seem to meet that standard, but their finding some way to win against all odds this season and denying teams with better overall stats inclusion, is to the benefit of the sport and not its detriment.
Wallace, Chastain and Busch had their chances and they didn’t win.
Remember that next year at Daytona, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Talladega, Pocono or even Kansas — anywhere on any given Sunday.
Winning means everything and every moment counts.