On Monday night, the Senators outshot the Red Wings 17-8 in the first period, yet headed into the first intermission down 3-0. By the end of the game, the shots were 38-20 for the Sens, but the score was 5-3 Red Wings. This had been the story of the Senators season. It’s starting to feel like groundhog day- Sens outshoot, Sens outchance, Sens goaltending lets them down. Just how bad has it been, and can anything be done to fix it? Let’s dive into the details.
READ MORE: Senators Midseason Grades
Team Goaltending by the Numbers
The Senators allow the fourth fewest shots against per game at 25.4. That is the lowest amount of shots against per game for the Sens since back in 2003-04. Unfortunately, they sit dead last in team save percentage at .871. They haven’t had a worse team save percentage since 1993-94, their second season of existence. Put it this way- they have given up the fourth fewest shots per game in the league while giving up the 10th most goals against per game. Here’s another way to look at it:
- If they had elite goaltending (.917 SV%), they would have given up 48 fewer goals.
- If they had their goaltending from last season (.902 SV%), they would have given up 32 less goals.
- If they had middle of the pack goaltending (.892 SV%), they would have given up 22 less goals.
As a team, the Senators tied for the league lead last season with 10 shutouts. There were plenty of other games where they won the goalie battle, and quite a few where whoever was in net for the Sens deserved one of the game’s three stars. Halfway through this season, they have just one shutout. It’s been a rarity that a Sens goalie has been noticeable for good reasons throughout this first half.
Individual Goaltending by the Numbers
Here are Ullmark and Merilainen’s number comparison between this season and last:
Linus Ullmark:
- 2024-25: 25-14-3, .910 SV%, 2.70 GAA, 4 Shutouts
- 2025-26: 14-8-5, .881 SV%, 2.95 GAA, 1 Shutout
Leevi Merilainen:
- 2024-25: 8-3-1, .925 SV%, 1.99 GAA, 3 Shutouts
- 2025-26: 6-7-0, 869 SV%, 3.49 GAA, 0 Shutouts
The drop-off from both guys is staggering. In Ullmark’s case, he had posted a save percentage of .910 or better in sixth straight seasons. During that time, of goalies with more than 100 starts, he ranked first in save percentage. This season he’s outside the top 50 in that regard. For Merilainen, some regression was expected after his unbelievable play a year ago. For him to be one of the worst goalies in all of hockey isn’t something anyone thought would happen, though.
A year ago, Merilainen was called up from AHL and saved the Senators season. There isn’t much hope for that this year. The Senators AHL goalies are Hunter Shepard and Mads Sogaard. Shepard is an undersized goalie with a sub .900 SV% since the start of last season in the minors. Sogaard, who was just called up, has struggled over the last few seasons, both with his health and play. In the last two seasons in the AHL, he’s gone 2-13-4 with a save percentage under .880. One can hope for a Hamburgler-type run from one of these guys, but it would be silly to expect it.
Options Moving Forward
What makes this situation so challenging is the unknown with Ullmark. Who knows when he’ll be back. There are three options here, as I see it:
- Big change
- Small change
- No change
A big change means moving away from Ullmark. This seems highly unlikely, but to play out this hypothetical, we’d need to figure out who would be willing to take on that contract, and what type of goalie would be coming back? The answer is a goalie like Ullmark who is paid a lot but struggling. Ullmark, by the way, has a cap hit of $8.25 million for the next three seasons after this one.
One goalie that fits that description is Jordan Binnington. He has this year and next left on a contract that has a cap hit of $6 million.
As for small change options, here are a few options:
- James Reimer is available. He had an .896 SV% last season, starting 19 games with the Sabres and two with the Ducks.
- Laurent Brossoit has just recently come back from 2024 hip surgery. He has a .901 SV% in six games for the Blackhawks AHL team.
- The Ducks have two veterans behind Lukas Dostal- Ville Husso, in year one of a two year deal with a cap hit of $2.2 million, and Petr Mrazek, in the final year of a deal with a cap hit of $4.25 million. Both have struggled this season.
Final Thoughts
The other options aren’t pretty. Bringing on a guy like Elvis Merzlikins who has struggled for years or Kevin Lankinen who has a long term contract attached to him doesn’t make much sense. A lot of this will depend on the next couple of weeks. Two questions need to be answered- When is Ullmark coming back, and how well can the young goalies hold down the fort in the meantime?
The reality is, there is no great option here. The Oilers, in desperate need of help in net, settled for Tristan Jarry. Whatever the Senators do will come with question marks. I doubt a big move is on the way, unless something went very wrong in the relationship between Ullmark and the team. The more likely solution- give Merilainen and Sogaard these next few weeks, and then decide if bringing in a veteran like the guys listed above is worthwhile. The Senators don’t need elite goaltending. if they can find their way to a .900 SV%, this team will end up in the playoffs.
