The quest for the Stanley Cup begins with 16 NHL teams competing in eight series in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. In two months, a champion will lift Lord Stanley’s treasured chalice.
Will it be a repeat for the Florida Panthers, who won their first championship last spring after losing in the Stanley Cup Final in 2023? Can the Vegas Golden Knights climb the mountain again as they did two seasons ago; or could the Colorado Avalanche win as they did in 2022?
Before even getting that far, the first-round must be played — and it’s in the opening round where upsets foten derail Stanley Cup dreams.
The hockey staff at Sportsnaut breaks down each of the eight first-round playoff series, and each member shares his prediction for each series, as well as for which team will win the Stanley Cup in 2025.
Related: 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Schedule, dates, times, results for every series
NHL playoff predictions: Picks for every 1st-round series, 2025 Stanley Cup champion
Eastern Conference
Washington Capitals (M1) vs. Montreal Canadiens (WC2)
Season series: Washington 2-1-0; Montreal 1-2-0
Series outlook: The Capitals ran away with the Metropolitan Division, winning it by 12 points, and finished first in the Eastern Conference and second overall in the NHL. That’s quite a difference from two seasons ago when they missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs and last season when they made it on the final day — and then were swept in the first round by the New York Rangers. Let’s see how much Alex Ovechkin has in the tank after scoring 44 goals in 65 games and passing Wayne Gretzky for most goals in NHL history (896). The re-tooled Capitals were the second highest scoring team in the NHL (3.49 goals per game) and tied for eighth defensively (2.79 goals-against per game). Their goal differential was plus-56 and they’re equally as good at home (26 wins) and on the road (25 wins). Washington is as well balanced a team as there is in the NHL.
The Canadiens used a six-game winning streak near the end of the season to pass four teams to land the second wild card in the East. They stumbled a bit, but clinched a playoff berth by winning their final game of the season. They’re an exciting young team, led by likely Calder Trophy winner Lane Hutson, 2022 top overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky and now fortified with the addition of 19-year-old stud forward Ivan Demidov. Captain Nick Suzuki scored some huge goals down the stretch and finished with 30, and Cole Caufield led them with 37. However, the Canadiens did give up 3.18 goals per game (22nd in the NHL) and had a minus-20 goal differential, worst among the 16 teams that qualified for the postseason.
Prediction: Capitals in 5. Washington is too deep, have a better defensive structure and should be able to frustrate the young Canadiens upstarts. — Jim Cerny, executive editor
Staff predictions
John Kreiser (senior writer): Capitals in 5
Dane Walsh (staff writer): Capitals in 5
Tom Castro (staff writer): Capitals in 6
Eric Charles (staff writer): Capitals in 6
Ben Leeds (staff writer): Capitals in 7
Carolina Hurricanes (M2) vs. New Jersey Devils (M3)
Season series: Tied 2-2-0
Series outlook: Neither of these teams has had much to play for in the past six weeks – the Devils haven’t been able to mount any kind of a push to overtake the Hurricanes for second place in the Metropolitan Division, the ’Canes never pushed the Washington Capitals for first place and none of the five teams below them made any kind of a push at all.
The Devils have struggled since losing their best player, center Jack Hughes, with a season-ending shoulder injury in early March. They did get their best defenseman, Dougie Hamilton, back on Wednesday after he missed 18 games with a lower-body injury, which should help an inconsistent offense. New Jersey needs a big series from goalie Jacob Markstrom, who’s been inconsistent since returning from an injury in early March. The Devils also need the same kind of big effort they got from their special teams during the regular season, when they were third on the power play (28.2 percent) and second to the Hurricanes on the penalty kill (82.7 percent).
Carolina swung for the fences in late January by acquiring forward Mikko Rantanen from the Colorado Avalanche, only to trade him before the deadline when they couldn’t sign the impending free agent. The Hurricanes play the same shoot-first game they’ve played for years under Rod Brind’Amour, but they lack star power – they don’t have anyone with more than 74 points (Sebastian Aho), and just three 20-goal scorers. Lenovo Center is a tough place for visitors – the ’Canes are 31-9-1 at home. But New Jersey is 23-16-2 on the road, and Carolina is just 16-21-4 before Thursday away from home.
Prediction: Hurricanes in 7. The absence of Jack Hughes figures to be too much for the Devils to overcome, especially with Carolina having the home-ice advantage. — John Kreiser, senior writer
Staff predictions
Jim Cerny – Hurricanes in 6
Dane Walsh – Hurricanes in 6
Tom Castro – Devils in 7
Eric Charles – Hurricanes in 6
Ben Leeds – Hurricanes in 5
Toronto Maple Leafs (A1) vs. Ottawa Senators (WC1)
Season series: Ottawa 3-0-0
Series outlook: This is going to be fun. Maple Leafs goalie Anthony Stolarz already predicted this best-of-7 Battle of Ontario is going to be a “bloodbath.” Toronto is the Big Brother here; it’s their ninth straight season in the playoffs (including losing in qualifying round in the 2020 COVID postseason), though they’ve won only one playoff round in that span. The Maple Leafs finished atop the Atlantic Division for the first time this season and closed out their schedule with five straight wins. Mitch Marner reached 100 points (102) for the first time; William Nylander was second in the League with 45 goals; John Tavares quietly had a great season with 38 goals; and Auston Matthews scored 33 over 67 games in a “down” year. They’re improved defensively and should have regular d-men Jake McCabe and Oliver Ekman-Larsson back from injuries in Game 1.
The Senators return to the postseason for the first time since playing Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Final in 2017. Coach Travis Green will be unleashing a pack of hungry dogs in this series, none more so that Brady Tkachuk, the Senators heart and soul captain will be playing in his first Stanley Cup Playoff series. Will he be 100 percent healthy, though? That’s a big question for Ottawa, which will need to rely heavily on goalie Linus Ullmark to keep these games close. Ullmark and the Senators more than held their own against the Maple Leafs sweeping the season series and allowing just three goals in the three games.
Prediction: Maple Leafs in 6. Ottawa will take their pound of flesh in this series, but this Toronto team has a different feel to it and could be set for a long run, finally. — Jim Cerny
Staff predictions
John Kreiser: Maple Leafs in 7
Dane Walsh: Maple Leafs in 5
Tom Castro: Maple Leafs in 6
Eric Charles: Maple Leafs in 7
Ben Leeds: Maple Leafs in 5
Tampa Bay Lightning (A2) vs. Florida Panthers (A3)
Season series: Tied 2-2-0
Series outlook: This is a rematch of last year’s first-round series, when the Panthers started their run to the Stanley Cup by blitzing their in-state rivals in five games. The biggest difference is that the Lightning, not the Panthers, will have the home-ice advantage – a big thing for a team that was 29-8-4 at Amalie Arena but finished below .500 on the road.
The biggest question for the Panthers is whether Matthew Tkachuk will be ready. Tkachuk missed Florida’s final 25 games after sustaining a lower-body injury while playing for the United States against Canada in the championship game of the 4 Nations Face-Off on Feb. 20. He said Wednesday he hopes to return — but offered no guarantees. The fact that the series doesn’t begin until Tuesday will give him a few more days to heal.
The Panthers still have the core of the 2024 title team, including goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, defenseman Gustav Forsling and forwards Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart. But they finished 3-6-1 in their final 10 games – including a 5-1 loss at Tampa on Tuesday — and rarely looked like a championship team without Tkachuk.
Tampa Bay will be itching to avenge last year’s loss to the Panthers. They also have a championship core – NHL scoring champion Nikita Kucherov, defenseman Victor Hedman and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy were all part of the championship teams in 2020 and 2021, and they’re still playing at an elite level. Tampa Bay is the only team in the League with two 40-goal scorers — Jake Guentzel (42) and Brayden Point (41) – and the Lightning are getting more from their bottom-six forwards than they did last season.
Prediction: Lightning in 6. A lot will depend on Tkachuk’s status. If he’s healthy enough to play at his usual level, the Panthers are one of the best NHL teams – he’s a point-a-game guy who’s a world-class agitator. But the Lightning have a still-elite core that should be enough to avenge last year’s loss. — John Kreiser
Staff predictions
Jim Cerny – Panthers in 7
Dane Walsh – Panthers in 7
Tom Castro – Panthers in 7
Eric Charles – Lightning in 7
Ben Leeds – Panthers in 7
Western Conference
Winnipeg Jets (C1) vs. St. Louis Blues (WC2)
Season series: Winnipeg 3-1-0; St. Louis 1-2-1
Series outlook: The League’s best team during the 2024-25 season faces the best NHL team since play resumed after the 4 Nations Face-Off in February – the Blues finished 19-4-3, including 12-0-1 at home.
The Jets won the Presidents’ Trophy as regular-season champion largely because of the play of Connor Hellebuyck, who’s all but assured of winning the Vezina Trophy as the top NHL goaltender for the second straight season and the third time in his career. But he has yet to carry his regular-season performance into a lengthy playoff run. Hellebuyck had an .864 save percentage last spring when the Jets lost to the Colorado Avalanche in five games; his regular-season mark was .921.
The Blues hope to ride Jordan Binnington, who led them to the Stanley Cup six years ago and backstopped Canada to the 4 Nations title in February. Robert Thomas (81 points in 70 games) and Jordan Kyrou (36 goals) have powered the offense down the stretch.
Prediction: Jets in 7. If Hellebuyck plays at his regular-season elite level (2.00 goals-against average and .925 save percentage this season), they should win – the rest of the team is deep and balanced. But if he doesn’t, it could be another early exit for the Jets, especially against a team playing as well as the Blues are coming into the postseason. — John Kreiser
Staff Predictions
Jim Cerny – Jets in 7
Tom Castro – Jets in 5
Dane Walsh – Jets in 6
Eric Charles – Jets in 7
Ben Leeds – Jets in 6
Dallas Stars (C2) vs. Colorado Avalanche (C3)
Season series: Colorado 2-1-0; Dallas 1-1-1
Series outlook: The Stars stumbled badly down the stretch, 0-5-2 in their final seven games, then lost their top scorer, Jason Robertson, week to week with an unspecified injury believed to be lower body. Their top defenseman Miro Heiskanen hasn’t played in more than two months following knee surgery, though he’s resumed skating. It all paints a bleak picture for a team that was a heavy Stanley Cup favorite all season, especially after landing Mikko Rantanen in a trade before the March 7 deadline. Tyler Seguin is back after being sidelined months following hip surgery, but how much he’ll be able to help remains in question.
The Avalanche retooled during the season, adding goalie Mackenzie Blackwood, forwards Brock Nelson, Martin Necas, Jack Drury and the red-hot Charlie Coyle (11 points in past six games), and defenseman Ryan Lindgren. Now, captain Gabriel Landeskog may be able to play after missing three years following a series of knee surgeries. Oh, and they have Nathan MacKinnon, who finished second in the NHL with 116 points, and Cale Makar, who topped all NHL defensemen with 30 goals, 62 assists and 92 points.
Prediction: Avalanche in 5. This still could end up to be the seven-game war we all were expecting. But all signs point to the Avalanche beginning a long postseason run with a dominant first-round performance. — Jim Cerny
Staff predictions
John Kreiser – Avalanche in 7
Dane Walsh – Avalanche in 7
Tom Castro – Avalanche in 7
Eric Charles – Avalanche in 5
Ben Leeds – Avalanche in 5
Vegas Golden Knights (P1) vs. Minnesota Wild (WC1)
Season series: Vegas 3-0-0
Series outlook: The Wild won four of their final five games, and are getting healthy just in time for a stiff first-round test. Superstar forward Kirill Kaprizov missed half the season following groin surgery in January, but is back and finished with 25 goals and 56 points in 41 games. That’s a big boost to the Wild’s middling offense, that ranked 25th in the NHL this season. The return of center Joel Eriksson Ek is also a big one because he’s a two-way force and should boost their 30th-ranked penalty kill. Filip Gustavsson is the X-factor for the Wild. He had an NHL career-high 31 wins, a solid .914 save percentage and his five shutouts tied for fourth most among all goalies.
The Golden Knights won the Stanley Cup two years ago and were bounced in the first round last spring. They appear primed to make another run, after a 50-win, 110-point season, which was second best in franchise history. They finished strong, too, 11-2-2 in their final 15 games. Jack Eichel scored in their final game after missing a few games and is coming off the best individual season (94 points) in franchise history. But it’s not jst Eichel. Vegas comes at you in waves; they have 13 players who scored 10 or more goals. The Golden Knights also have a lethal power play, 28.3 percent, which was good for second overall in the League. Not a lot of holes here, and with championship muscle memory too.
Prediction: Golden Knights in 4. That’s right, we need a rare first-round sweep. And the Golden Knights are just the team to deliver it. — Jim Cerny
Staff predictions
John Kreiser: Golden Knights in 5
Dane Walsh: Golden Knights in 5
Tom Castro: Golden Knights in 6
Eric Charles: Golden Knights in 6
Ben Leeds: Golden Knights in 5
Los Angeles Kings (P2) vs. Edmonton Oilers (P3)
Season series: Los Angeles 3-1-0; Edmonton 1-2-1
Series outlook: The Kings and Oilers are meeting in the first round for the fourth straight season. The only difference is that this time, the Kings have the home-ice advantage; the Oilers had it in each of the three previous years. It’s a big consideration because the Kings led the NHL in home points with 66 and lost just five times in regulation at Crypto.com Arena, where they allowed an average of less than two goals per game. Los Angeles also shut out Edmonton twice in the final 12 days of the season.
Health is a big factor for the Oilers, who expect to have their big guns, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, ready to go – along with forward Zach Hyman and defensemen Jake Walman and Troy Stetcher. Only defenseman Mattias Ekholm is expected to miss the series. Draisaitl led the NHL with 52 goals despite not playing since April 3, and McDavid reached 100 points for the eighth time in his career even though he missed missing 15 games.
Goaltending is also a major consideration. Darcy Kuemper had a career season for the Kings, who allowed the second-fewest goals in the League. The Oilers will have to decide between Stuart Skinner, who got them to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final last spring, or Calvin Pickard, who’s been the better (and healthier) of Edmonton’s two goalies for the past two months.
Prediction: Kings in 7. The home-ice advantage is a big edge for a team that went 17-19-5 on the road, and the Kings have it. — John Kreiser
Staff predictions
Jim Cerny – Kings in 7
Dane Walsh – Kings in 7
Tom Castro – Kings in 7
Eric Charles – Kings in 7
Ben Leeds – Oilers in 7
2025 Stanley Cup champion predictions
Jim Cerny – Golden Knights
John Kreiser – Jets
Dane Walsh – Maple Leafs
Tom Castro – Golden Knights
Eric Charles – Avalanche
Ben Leeds – Golden Knights
