The New York Islanders, playoff contenders in five of the last six years, stumbled in 2024-25 with a 35-35-12 record that left them sixth in the Metropolitan Division.
Rather than living in the middle of the road or heading straight for the ditch, the Islanders opted for a “rebuild-on-the-fly” this past offseason, but will the retool be enough for a postseason return?
That raises the question: can this “rebuild-on-the-fly” pay quick dividends in the form of a playoff return? According to the latest NHL odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, the Isles are +250 to clinch a 2026 NHL Playoffs spot.
Here are three reasons why I think they’ll be playing deep into April this season.
1. Barzal is Back
Matthew Barzal is the straw that stirs the Islanders’ offense. Last season, Barzal missed 52 games, negatively impacting an already offensively challenged Islanders lineup.
The Isles were one of the worst offensive teams in the 2024-25 season, tying for 27th in goals per game with an average of 2.71. The man-advantage was hardly an advantage for the Isles, as the power play converted only 12.6% of its chances.
Despite that anemic offensive output, the Isles flirted with playoff contention until early March.
With Barzal back in the lineup, the Islanders have a chance to reignite their attack and keep postseason hopes alive as the season winds down. But offense alone won’t guarantee success:
2. Schaefer is the Next Hutson
The Islanders hit the jackpot, winning the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery. With the first-overall pick, they selected defenseman Matthew Schaefer.
Schaefer is a young player with immense offensive upside, similar to last year’s Calder Trophy winner from the Montreal Canadiens, Lane Hutson.
Hutson caught fire during the season’s second half, finishing with 66 points and breaking the Canadiens’ rookie defenseman scoring record held by Chris Chelios.
There are no guarantees, of course, but with Noah Dobson dealt to the Habs this offseason, Schaefer should get plenty of icetime. If he blossoms into a player of the caliber of Hutson, the Isles’ offensive metrics should improve enough for a playoff spot.
3. Sorokin is Still Elite
Ilya Sorokin flourished behind the stingy defensive structure implemented by former HC Barry Trotz. During 2021, 2022, and 2023, the Russian netminder ranked second in save percentage (.924).
He’s the caliber of goalie who can steal a game or a playoff series.
His play dipped after Trotz’s departure, but was still very good. He finished last season with a .904% SVV and a 2.71 GAA. The problem for Sorokin was the inconsistent play in front of him.
Any team could do a lot worse in net, and having Sorokin as a consistent backstop should help them steal some much-needed wins down the stretch.
Bet the Isles to Make the Playoffs
Frankly, I’d like longer odds than +250, but I really think the Islanders have a great chance of securing a playoff spot. With Barzal healthy, an influx of young talent, and a world-class goalie, they’ll be a constant thorn in the sides of the Eastern Conference elite.
Or, it’ll all go sideways and HC Patrick Roy will be dismissed by Christmas.
I don’t think that’s likely, so I’m taking the Islanders to make the 2025-26 NHL Playoffs for +250.
