Welcome to NHL Draft Day, folks. With all the speculative noise going from quiet to deafening in a week, it feels something of a formality that Noah Dobson will be dealt away by the end of tonight’s first round in the NHL Draft.
Dobson, 25, reportedly has not budged from his astronomical $11 million per season contract ask for a long-term extension. That’s left the Islanders to explore what’s become a robust trade market.
On 32 Thoughts this morning, Elliotte Friedman wondered if tonight is a deadline, as the Islanders and General Manager Mathieu Darche want the noise to quiet down. This all began last summer when ex-Team President and GM Lou Lamoriello did not re-sign Dobson ahead of time, like he had Ilya Sorokin and Mathew Barzal one summer ahead of time.
Now, the two sides are headed for a seemingly imminent divorce. The Islanders need to recoup major assets so as not to come out with some serious egg on their face.
Yes, landing James Hagens tonight would be spectacular. Trading Dobson one-for-one for that pick would not be the best value possible on a Noah Dobson trade.
Friedman specifically linked the Montreal Canadiens, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Nashville Predators, citing their multiple first-round picks.
Then, as I’m writing this, Elliotte Friedman tweeted the following:
https://x.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1938591516727070891
Any leverage the Islanders have continues to slip away. The package for him will, in all likelihood, underwhelm.
The Right Side Without Dobson:
The way Friedman framed it, it sure seems to be a futures-based package returning to Long Island for Dobson. If that’s the case, then they’ll either need to flip those assets, or it becomes extremely clear the Islanders cannot compete in 2025-26.
As good as Matthew Schaefer, the presumptive first-overall pick tonight, will be, he will be a rookie, assuming he makes the team. As good as Ryan Pulock can be, he had a significant down year last season, largely due to injuries in the back half.
The other right-shot defensemen left would be Scott Mayfield and Adam Boqvist. Boqvist could break out, but his defensive game has always left a lot to be desired.
Re-upping Tony DeAngelo becomes possible then, but having him in a top-four role for 82 games would not be an ideal plan. DeAngelo brings a lot of good offensively, but as everyone knows by now, he leaves a lot to be desired defensively.
If/When Dobson’s Traded, Then What?
Jordan Spence or Brandt Clarke could be available from the Los Angeles Kings. Erik Karlsson, if Pittsburgh retains a significant amount, could also substitute for Dobson. In a deal with Montreal, the Islanders would have to target David Reinbacher, who could fill a void as well. Logan Mailloux, often thrown into mock trades with Montreal, looks like another offensive-defenseman with poor defensive work.
There is no package the Columbus Blue Jackets could cobble together that ever justifies trading Dobson in-division. That would be a massive mistake. Their first-round picks, picks 14 and 20, are not that valuable in this year’s draft. Trading Dobson for purely futures to a divisional foe while claiming you’re trying to compete would invalidate that very statement.
With the expectation now firmly in place that Dobson will refuse to sign for any western conference team, nothing else particularly matters. The Boston Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers could end up landed Dobson with a decent-enough package.
Any leverage the Islanders had has gone out the window. Dobson, likely through his agent, has masterfully dictated the flow of information from his high contract ask, to his preferred destination.
Now, the Islanders over the next few hours will work toward finalizing a trade, shipping the defender away. Barring a significantly better than expected return, the Islanders’ roster for 2025-26 will be worse, even if they add another premium forward.
Sell, or Make a Defensive Splash:
When this trade goes down, the Islanders have to hope to land some premium assets. With leverage all out the door and Dobson seemingly ruling out destinations like St. Louis, where they’d have offered up Jordan Kyrou.
If it’s Columbus, you could get Dmitri Voronkov or Kent Johnson. Both have some high upside, and the Islanders would prefer Johnson, but it’s unlikely Columbus would part with him, especially when the Islanders’ leverage is as limited as it is.
Very silently, I wonder about the Pittsburgh Penguins. All along, everyone says Kyle Dubas wants premium young talent. Dobson is exactly that. They have picks 11 and 12.
Darche needs to manufacture a bidding war to recoup value. There’s no other possibility, lest this truly becomes another Devon Toews-style trade where the Islanders receive some future assets but regret the trade not far after.
