James Nichols
It’s getting uncomfortable, now. We’re eight days into NHL training camps, and Luke Hughes is still absent from the New Jersey Devils. There’s plenty of finger-pointing at the headliners involved in these negotiations, Hughes, and general manager Tom Fitzgerald. However, there’s a factor here that is perhaps being overlooked.
READ MORE: The Wedge Between the Devils & Luke Hughes
The landscape of NHL salaries is changing right now. The salary cap is increasing every year for the next three years. And, it’s not going up incrementally. It’s jumping significantly each year.
Luke Hughes isn’t the only player of significance who is in this awkward position. Managers and agents alike are all trying to figure out exactly where the market is for some of these star players, or projected superstars.
“I got some really interesting feedback just about us talking about the changes in the cap and what it’s meant,” Elliotte Friedman stated on a recent episode of 32 Thoughts podcast. “And I think everybody wondered what the effect of it would be. And we’re seeing it.”
“The agents are definitely saying, ‘Hey, the cap is a higher percentage of the cap.’ But the one thing that I absolutely believe more than ever is that the GMs are… I don’t think it’s collusion or anything like that, I want to be very careful with that…
“But I definitely think there is a (sense of) ‘we have to hold the line to some level.’ Like, you can’t look at what Minnesota offered Kaprizov at 8x$16 and say they’re colluding.”
Thus, the overlooked factor in the Devils-Hughes negotiations is the agent, Pat Brisson.
Whenever the “best bargain contracts in the NHL” articles drop, Brisson likely winces at the list. At one time, client Nathan MacKinnon was among those candidates, with an average annual value (AAV) just over $6 million, meanwhile he was producing at$9-plus million value amid the 2022-23 season.
Relative to the cap increasing, MacKinnon’s current $12.6 million AAV could soon be another bargain.
In today’s landscape, Sidney Crosby is another example of a Brisson client who is working on a contract that’s a little light on his wallet, with a $2 million surplus value.
And how could we forget about Luke’s brother, Jack Hughes, who is considered the No.1 bargain contract in the NHL today? Hughes’ $8.0 million AAV is about $4.2 million short of where it belongs.
Brisson is one of the most well-renowned NHL agents, representing a healthy amount of the top talent in the league. However, he’s in the middle of these negotiations, attempting to navigate this uncertain time when so many stars need new deals, and he doesn’t want to end up on another bargain list.
Each camp is in agreement on a long-term marriage. AFP Analytics projects Hughes to earn $8,386,810 on a six-year deal. Yet, it sounds like eight years is the consensus.
The AAV is the sticking point. There’s a real possibility Brisson and Hughes are looking at an AAV that starts at $9 million, or more.
There’s plenty of finger-pointing at the Devils GM and even the 22-year-old defenseman for not having come to terms by now. But make no mistake, the agent has a big stake in these negotiations, too. In fact, who is to say you won’t be thankful for the line Tom Fitzgerald has drawn once this is all said and done.
Ticktock, the regular season is approaching, and fast.
Surplus metrics via The Athletic
