The Montreal Canadiens are enjoying a dream start to the 2025-26 season.
With five games in the bank, it’s time to take a look at some of the important numbers driving Montreal’s early-season success.
We settled on five topics, which means we are ignoring a few key factors, including Zachary Bolduc’s impressive goal-scoring pace, but we invite you to add your own opinion in the comments below the article.
Top Line Dominance
As per usual, we’re going to focus on 5v5 statistics, which does remove some of the shine from the top line, especially since their heroics on Thursday night included a game-tying goal while Jakub Dobes was pulled (6v5), and a game-winning goal in overtime (3v3).
WOW!
Lane Hutson saves the day, then feeds Cole Caufield who scores yet ANOTHER big goal for the #GoHabsGo.
Movie stuff. Tie game with 15 seconds left. pic.twitter.com/TlfG7jww4b
— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) October 17, 2025
Regardless, their play at 5v5 has been the driving force behind Montreal’s significant improvements when evaluating team statistics. More on that later.
The Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky combination has controlled 69% of the shots (69-31), which is very nice. They’ve also had a 69.15% control of the expected goals (3.32-1.48), as well as a 60% control of quality scoring chances (12-8).
There’s no doubt about it, not only is Suzuki clearly among the best No.1 centres in the league, Montreal’s top line is producing the type of underlying numbers that suggest sustainability is in play. Given that Suzuki is the elder statesman at just 26 years old, you could also build a strong argument that the best is yet to come.
Dobson and Matheson
The rumours of Mike Matheson’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. Matheson’s offensive prowess come to the forefront on most nights, and his instant chemistry alongside Noah Dobson has led to very encouraging statistics.
Keep in mind, Matheson tends to be used as a No.1 defenceman, despite being paid like a No.3 or No.4. This situation is likely to change in the next few seasons, but as it stands, he still remains Martin St-Louis’ busiest player, with an average ice time of 18:43 at 5v5.
Matheson has also been the third-busiest defenceman in the entire NHL since 2023.
In other words, the usage does not match the pay cheque, and that been an issue when evaluating his underlying numbers in the past. However, now that Matheson is playing with Dobson, he’s managed to maintain a 63.6% share of the high-danger scoring chances (14-8), not to mention a 59.5% control of the expected goals (3.39-2.31).
It’s a good reminder that context is key when evaluating hockey players.
Mike Matheson might be enjoying the best individual start to the year for the Habs.
Nice pass by Suzuki to make it 3-1. #GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/5qWbHZIKqF
— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) October 9, 2025
Jakub Dobes
This one is rather simple.
Most times, I tend to spend my time defending Samuel Montembeault’s impact, as he’s been the most underrated player in the organization throughout the rebuild, but he’s yet to really find his rhythm this season.
Dobes, on the other hand, hit the ground running, and has managed to maintain a .971 save percentage at 5v5, one of the best results among all NHL goaltenders.
Yes, the sample size is small, but we have to give credit to Dobes for his excellent play, especially since he tends to be lost in the fray when discussing goaltenders in the organization.
Dobes makes a huge save in OT, and then tries to relaunch the offence. #GoHabsGopic.twitter.com/A472pBLGsq
— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) October 17, 2025
Rookie Play
As expected, Montreal’s super rookie is leading all other first-year players in goal-scoring.
Of course, most people assumed it would be Ivan Demidov in that situation, and not Oliver Kapanen, but you never want to look a gift horse in the mouth.
With three goals in five games, Kapanen is off to a perfect start to the season, and he’s done a great job shutting down some of the preseason criticism sent his way in regard to his offensive potential.
For example, some hockey analyst named Marc Dumont questioned whether Kapanen would ever be able to score with regularity at the NHL level without being given first-line minutes.
What a fool!
Yes, Demidov has been a big part of Kapanen’s success, but you’d be hard-pressed to argue that the 22-year-old Finn has not exceeded all expectations through the first five games of the season.
We also have to give credit to Alex Newhook for setting the tone with his remarkable speed, but at 24 years old, he’s now a grizzled veteran, at least relative to the players on his line.
A big goal by Oliver Kapanen, good work to get his own rebound. His third goal of the year. Tie game. #GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/5O2rGbH5J4
— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) October 17, 2025
Team Improvements – High Danger Scoring Chances
Believe it or not, the Montreal Canadiens are below-average when evaluating their overall shot control, with 48.4% (21st in the NHL), but they’ve made significant strides in both expected goals (52%, 11th in the NHL) and high-danger scoring chances (54.7%, 5th in the NHL).
It’s a particularly important improvement for a team that has struggled in all three categories since St-Louis took over as head coach.
I’m a strong believer that a team must maintain a solid control of the best scoring chances if they’re to make any noise in the playoffs. For example, the Edmonton Oilers led the league last season (55.9%), while the Stanley Cup winners, the Florida Panthers, were tied for fifth (53.2%).
There’s more to hockey than these simple statistics, and the numbers will certainly change as the available data gives us a healthier sample size, but this is the first time in a long time that the Canadiens have managed to tread water in expected goals and high-danger scoring chances to start the season.
All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.
