The Montreal Canadiens have 28 games left to play in the 2025-26 season, indicating we’ve reached the two-thirds mark of the schedule.
It’s the perfect opportunity to revisit the team’s playoff odds, as well as the most drastic changes from various teams in the Eastern Conference over the course of the last three weeks.
Updated Montreal Canadiens Playoff Odds
As it stands, the Canadiens have healthy chances of making the playoffs, to the tune of 71.8%.
Of course, given the parity in the NHL, not to mention the always chaotic Eastern Conference playoff race, the team cannot afford to rest on its laurels.
There’s still a lot of hockey left to play, and the teams knocking at the Wild Card door have more than enough talent to leapfrog the Habs should things go awry in Montreal. The Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers represent the greatest threat, even if they’re eight points behind the cut.
To make matters more complicated, every team behind the Panthers are within two points in the standings, with the exception of the New York Rangers.
As was the case last season, the playoff race may come down to the final games of the schedule.
Change In Eastern Conference Playoff Odds
When we evaluated Montreal’s playoff odds at the midway point of the season, they were sitting at 69.1%. Thus, they have improved their odds, but only slightly. There was a point in January that saw their hopes climb to 80%, but a series of losses put the dream of an easy playoff qualification to rest.
It’s a good reminder about the volatility involved in the NHL standings. A poor stretch can quickly destroy any semblance of momentum built throughout the previous months.
For example, the Washington Capitals were in a great situation three weeks ago, with playoff odds nearing 71%. Fast-forward to the end of the month, and the Capitals are on the outside looking in, having suffered a 43% decline in playoff odds.
The Philadelphia Flyers also saw their springtime hockey hopes collapse, going through a 50% decline in less than a month.
On the flip side of the coin, the Boston Bruins have improved their odds by almost 45%, while the Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, Pittsburgh Penguins, and New York Islanders have all enjoyed upticks in the 20% range.
Remaining Montreal Canadiens Games
Opponents: Buffalo Sabres, Minnesota Wild, New York Islanders (x3), Anaheim Ducks (x2), Boston Bruins, Detroit Red Wings, Carolina Hurricanes (x2), Tampa Bay Lightning (x2), Winnipeg Jets, Washington Capitals, San Jose Sharks (x2), Los Angeles Kings, Toronto Maple Leafs, Ottawa Senators, Columbus Blue Jackets (x2), Nashville Predators, New York Rangers, New Jersey Devils (x2), Florida Panthers, Philadelphia Flyers.
With 28 games left on the docket, the Canadiens will face Eastern Conference opponents 20 times, adding yet another interesting factor to the playoff race. They’re also set to face Atlantic Division rivals on eight occasions, and we’re all quite aware of the importance of winning four-point games.
There is some solace to be taken when discussing the rest of the schedule, as just 13 of those games will take place against teams currently in a playoff spot, leaving 15 games against non-playoff opponents. That being said, many of the teams that aren’t in a playoff spot are still very much in the race, such as the San Jose Sharks.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
If you’re looking for a streamlined opinion on Montreal’s playoff odds, I would suggest the Habs are in a good, but not great situation.
They will probably make the playoffs (71.8%), and there’s even a decent chance they will make it to the second round (30%). If you want to dream a little, their odds to win the Stanley Cup are roughly 2.5%.
However, an injury to a key player or an extended stretch of poor goaltending can quickly sink Montreal’s hopes, meaning the team will have to maintain its focus down the stretch and avoid playing down to the level of teams below it in the standings.
All Montreal Canadiens and NHL playoff odds via Money Puck.
